Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1125 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Chamber of commerce weather across SW KS, with a very enjoyable
Thanksgiving afternoon. Wisps of cirrus continue to rotate around
an impressive 594+ dm upper high south of San Diego. Unseasonably
warm temperatures will approach near record levels this afternoon
in the low to mid 70s (the record at Dodge City is 74 and normal
is lower 50s). Winds will trend SWly through sunset and remain
light.

Tonight...Unseasonably mild. Most locations will easily hold in
the 40s overnight, as warm advection is reinforced at 850 mb and a
downslope breeze keeps the boundary layer mixed. This is some 15+
degrees above late November normals.

Friday...Continued unseasonably warm. Light SW winds at sunrise
will trend northerly and modestly gusty by midday, as the next dry
cold front arrives. Atmosphere will be very warm through about
noon, with 850 mb temperatures near 20C. As such, temperatures
will soar upwards into the 70s through midday, then slowly fall
with the north wind shift Friday afternoon. Unseasonably warm 70s
are expected in all zones, but the warmest temperatures will occur
where the prefrontal downslope/compression lasts the longest (in
the Ashland/Coldwater vicinity, where lower 80s are possible). The
record high at Dodge City for November 24th is harder to beat
(80/1990) and will only be reached if the northerly wind shift can
be delayed. Regardless, another abnormally pleasant late November
day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A dry and uneventful period can be expected through the weekend and
into early next week as a northwest flow prevails aloft while a much
drier air mass remains settled across western Kansas. Well above
normal temperatures will continue into Friday regardless of a cold
front projected to push through western Kansas early to mid
afternoon. Widespread 70s(F) for highs can be expected under mostly
sunny skies Friday afternoon. Much cooler air will surge into
Western Kansas Saturday lowering H85 temperatures well below 10C
late in the day. Could see highs struggling to reach up into the
lower to mid 60s(F) Saturday afternoon. Ridging aloft across the
Intermountain West and a quick return low level southerlies will
allow temperatures to bounce back int the early part of next week
with highs pushing the 70s(F) again by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR will continue through this TAF forecast period, with only
variable amounts of cirrus. Light SW winds of less than 10 kts
will prevail this afternoon through tonight. Winds will trend
NW by 15z Friday. Near the end of this TAF period, the next dry
cold front will arrive at the terminals with gusty north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  45  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  40  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  45  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  43  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  44  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  43  75  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner


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