Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 022318
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

Persistence is a pretty good forecast method through Thursday.
Through the end of the week, western Kansas will remain within the
northern periphery of the large subtropical anticyclone with
southwest momentum across the Rockies to our
northwest...continuing to lead to lee troughing in the lower
troposphere across the length of the High Plains. Very warm south
winds will continue. Overnight lows of upper 60s to around 70 will
continue along with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.
Unfortunately, the middle troposphere will also be quite warm, and
despite some leeside convergence, there just will not be any
upper support to favor convective development along the lee trough
across far eastern Colorado and adjacent far western Kansas. As a
result, we will keep POPs below 15 percent in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

We will eventually see an end to the consecutive day streak of above
average temperatures, but not before the end of the weekend (or
perhaps Monday of next week). A formidable mid-latitude cyclone
will move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains
over the weekend into early next week, which will bring a front
down into western Kansas early next week. This will be the best
opportunity for cooler temperatures and better precipitation
chances. The initial front will probably stall out somewhere
across southern Kansas early next week and perhaps interact with
some subtropical jet stream flow to aid in thunderstorm activity
(both surface based and nocturnal elevated thunderstorms). This is
the primary reason for the higher POPs in the forecast for early-
mid next week. Until then, Friday through Sunday will be hot and
dry with almost zero chance for precipitation and highs in the 95
to 98F range for most of the area all three days.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions can be expected
overnight and Thursday. Winds overnight will be from the south at
10 to 15 knots. On Thursday the south winds will increase into the
15 to 20 knot range by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  95 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  69  96  68  95 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  70  95  68  93 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  70  96  69  95 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  94  71  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert


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