Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 222306
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS AN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING SYNOPTIC TROUGH LOCATED FARTHER
UPSTREAM. THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE MESOSCALE MODEL DOMAIN
(WRF-ARW/NMM AND 4 KM NAM) THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT MUCH PAST THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER TONIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE HRRR, WHICH IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PROPAGATION. THINK
THIS COULD BE AN OUTLIER. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST
ZONES THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY DOUBTFUL GIVEN VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY.

THERE COULD BE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY
INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THINK THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SPREADING EAST AS THE CONVERGENT AREA SPREADS
EAST. TRIED TO INSERT A DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR POPS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR A RATHER MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT AS BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENS
TO 30 KT AND THERE IS SOME MARGINAL CAPE FORECAST.

MINIMUMS TONIGHT WILL IN THE UPPER 50S WITH MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN THE
80-87F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG AROUND 35 KNOTS OF
SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ELONGATED FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST TEXAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-70 KNOT 250 MILLIBAR JET. THE MODELS BREAK
OUT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST POPS FARTHER WEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE MODELS ALL
SHOW A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND A LOW
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE
MEANTIME, ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS HAS TENDED TO MOVE THIS UPPER TROUGH EAST
TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND WHICH IS
PROBABLY TOO FAST GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE. WILL KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY WITH LOW POPS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON
THE RAP, HRRR, AND NAM THE LOCATIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE AROUND THE GARDEN CITY AREA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z, AND THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE DODGE CITY AREA WILL BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED/ISOLATED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LOWER PROBABILITY HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE 00Z TAFS. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD BASES MAY
BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE 2000 TO 3000FT AGL RANGE IN AND NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. PREVAILING SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  84  60  84 /  40  30  30  20
GCK  59  86  60  86 /  30  20  30  20
EHA  58  86  59  86 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  59  86  61  86 /  20  20  30  30
HYS  58  80  59  81 /  60  50  30  20
P28  57  82  60  82 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.