Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 AM MST Tue Oct 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drying conditions will develop today as the system
that produced showers and thunderstorms overnight moves into New
Mexico. Mainly dry and warm conditions will continue for the
remainder of the week. In fact, temperatures by Thursday will
range from 10 to almost 15 degrees above normal. A slight chance
of showers will return by Friday and into next weekend.


A high pressure ridge will work into AZ later today as the
shortwave disturbance that caused last night`s showers and
thunderstorms pushes eastward into New Mexico. A few areas of fog
with more widespread low stratus formed this morning, especially
around Flagstaff, but will continue to lift and burn off during
the late morning hours and into the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...A trough moving through central
Arizona early this morning has brought a wide area of showers
and thunderstorms to the CWA. After a slow start yesterday, the
nearly 24 hours of moisture advection into southern California,
southern Nevada and western Arizona finally paid dividends. Enough
moisture was in place for convection to develop, aided by the weak
dynamics of the trough. This area of convection moved east Monday
evening and has now reached the New Mexico border. Some trailing
convective showers have been occurring in the upslope areas of
central Arizona, well behind the main trough axis.

As the day goes on, we expect drier mid level air and rising
hghts, indicating warming in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
This should bring a rapid decrease and eventual end to any shower
activity sometime this afternoon.

The remainder of the week will feature well above normal hghts and
daytime temperatures as a high amplitude ridge builds over New
Mexico. Another weak trough will brush the area Friday and
Saturday, with a slight chance of showers returning. A cold front
arrives Sunday and Monday, keeping a slight threat of showers in
the forecast, as well as bringing an end to above normal


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...Expect mostly VFR conditions
starting this afternoon. Early morning fog with IFR conditions is
rapidly burning off over portions of the higher terrain and should
clear by noon MST. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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