Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171714
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1014 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING
AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL LIKELY SPEND SOME TIME RAISING
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
RIM ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO BY MIDDAY. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA (PIMA
COUNTY) LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT MOVES
THROUGH GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AREAS...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
WEST OF THESE AREAS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A CONCERN. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
THE KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR
CLOUD CEILINGS AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ007-008-
012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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