Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260400
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. STARTING
MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN UNDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY...AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO HAS SLOWED DOWN BY
ABOUT 4-6 HOURS. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WILL ARRIVE LATER AS WELL
ON MONDAY...SO WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. RAINFALL
DOES NOT ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON...MAYBE
NOT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND IT IS VERY WARM...SO QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO FOR THAT TIME
FRAME.

BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT
SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW BY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...SO COLDER AIR MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. STILL A BIT
EARLY TOO TELL...BUT WE HAVE RAISED POPS AGAIN FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER VARIABLE CIRRUS THROUGH
18Z...THEN CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 18Z AND INTO TUESDAY. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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