Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250323
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
823 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A passing trough will bring increasing clouds, breezy
westerly winds and a chance for snow showers along Arizona`s
northern border overnight tonight. Expect dry conditions and
warming temperatures Sunday and Monday, before another winter
weather system brings increasing chances for rain and snow on
late Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Increased chances for precipitation and precipitation amounts
across the higher terrain near the Arizona Utah border for
tonight. This should better account satellite and high-res short
term model solutions suggesting the potential for measurable
precipitation at these locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /308 PM MST/...Weak high pressure brought
clearing skies today. The next trough of low pressure moving
through the Great Basin this afternoon. High clouds are already
moving into northwest Arizona. This will bring slight chances for
snow showers along the Arizona/Utah border and the mountains of
northeast Arizona. This will also keep breezy winds overnight
hours, especially at locations along and east of higher terrain
features.

Expect dry conditions and warming temperatures on Sunday and
Monday, although below normal temperatures will continue at most
places. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will dive down the
west coast resulting in a return of gusty southwest winds by
Monday afternoon. Winds will increase on Tuesday. Chances of
chances of snow showers and lower elevation rain showers increase
late Monday night through Tuesday from west to east.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Saturday...

Operational models are in good agreement showing a moist cold
front moving from west to east across northern AZ Tuesday night.
Moisture transport on the 295 theta surface suggests a north to
south frontal band of precip moving into far western AZ Tuesday
afternoon and reaching the NM state line around midnight
Wednesday. There could be a well defined cloud comma head
trailing the front and affecting much of the forecast area
Tuesday night through mid day Wednesday. Precip chances were
raised, and forecast QPF amounts are a blend of the GFS, ECMWF,
Superblend and NBM. Present indications are for accumulating snow
above 5000 feet, with amounts of 1-3 inches north of the Mogollon
Rim, 4-7" along the Rim. Clearing expected from west to east on
Wednesday. Stay tuned.

Wednesday night through Saturday - Made the forecast dry as GFS
ensembles the only output with any precip, and that that being
Friday night and Saturday. Otherwise we are looking at SW-W flow
aloft with periods of mid level clouds. Max temps on a slow
warming trend, reaching seasonal values on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. CIGS to develop and lower from north to south tonight, with
cigs down to 10kft msl and isolated -SHSN north of a Supai
to Window Rock line from 06Z through 12Z. Local MVFR cigs also
possible along the Mogollon Rim from 09z-15z. Aft 15z Sunday...clear
across the area with sfc winds variable to 10 kt. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A fast moving upper level disturbance will
cross through the Four Corners tonight. Expect increasing clouds
from north to south and a slight chance of showers along the Utah
border and Chuska Mountains. Fair weather to return for Sunday and
Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Gusty southerly winds return Tuesday as a
moist storm system approaches from the west. This system should
bring widespread rain and snow showers, with wetting precip amounts
probable along and south of the Mogollon Rim Tuesday night. Clearing
from west to east early Wednesday, with dry weather then through
Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk/MAS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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