Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
800 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will end over far northeast Arizona
by midnight. Expect breezy winds Wednesday afternoon followed by
much colder temperatures Thursday as a passing cold front moves
through the area. There will be a slight chance of showers over
far northern Arizona Wednesday evening into Thursday. An unsettled
pattern will develop late in the weekend and early next week,
with better chances for rain and snow.


.UPDATE...Showers became more widespread than expected over the
northern third of Arizona late this afternoon and evening,
bringing a few hundredths of an inch to most of Coconino county
north of I-40. At 8 PM, the last area of showers was located over
northern Apache and Navajo counties and should move out of the
state by 11 PM. No further forecast updates are anticipated until
the routine morning package.


.PREV DISCUSSION /341 PM MST/...A moisture plume has moved across
northwest Arizona this afternoon out ahead of a developing west
coast trough. A line of showers has developed and will affect
mainly western Coconino and extreme NW Yavapai counties late this
afternoon and early evening, dissipating by late evening. Could
even see a few lightning strikes in this area. Fair weather will
continue elsewhere through tonight, with low temperatures several
degrees above average.

For Wednesday...expect increasing southwest winds as the trough
moves further inland and a cold front approaches Arizona. Northern
Arizona will see wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a few gusts could
reach 45 mph or so. Didn`t issue a wind advisory for Wednesday at
this time due to extensive cloud cover that is expected to reduce
vertical mixing, and could keep the higher gusts limited and
brief. Model trends continue to look drier with the frontal
passage late Wednesday/Thursday, so slight rain/snow shower
chances are limited to areas near the AZ/UT border. Still
expecting about a 15 degree drop in high temperatures Thursday.
Dry but continued cool weather is expected Friday through

Forecast model guidance continues to trend later with the weekend
trough passage with better potential for rain and snow from
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. There is consistency among
operational model runs with an initial wave bringing precipitation
Sunday afternoon followed by a colder trough moving through on
Monday or Monday night. Still some timing issues and the usual
uncertainty with precip amounts this far out, but we increased
PoPs slightly with today`s forecast. This has the potential to be
a significant rain and higher elevation snow event but it`s too
early for many details, so continue to monitor later forecasts as
we get closer to the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
for the next 24 hours. Isolated showers will end by 07Z north of a
Kayenta to Window Rock line. On Wednesday...gusty southwest
surface winds of 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts developing by
midday and continuing into mid evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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