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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241659
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&


.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS KEEPING
AZ IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO MORNING
UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 AM MST)...A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SIT OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
BE VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEPTH/TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO TO INCLUDE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS
TUE/WED. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE DAYS ARE NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-30KTS FROM THE SW FROM 17Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OVER A LARGE AREA OR A PERSISTENT AMOUNT OF TIME.
HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT...WITH ONLY MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WILL ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
AND APPROACH ARIZONA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF