Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
833 PM MST Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect fair but breezy conditions tonight. Windy and
cooler conditions are forecast across northern Arizona from
Thursday through Friday. Lighter winds are a warming trend are in
the cards for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the


We did see an increase in mid level clouds this afternoon due to a
weak upper level low that will move across the state tonight. Breezy
conditions will persist tonight as a stronger low moves southward
through the Great Basin. Faster wind speeds are forecast for
tomorrow and the Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning look good.

After a fair and warm weather weekend, light southerly flow in
the mid levels is shown to draw some moisture and instability
northward into northern AZ. We currently have a slight chance of
Tstorms forecast Monday in the White Mtns, and this spreads
northeastward across much of the northland Tuesday and Wednesday.
We will continue to monitor.


.PREV DISCUSSION /345 PM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will
continue through Thursday under the influence of a ridge of high
pressure just east of Arizona. An approaching shortwave trough
moving onto the southern California coast Thursday evening will
cause a tightening pressure gradient over Arizona Thursday,
causing an increase in southwest winds over the region for the
next 48 hours. Because of the strong winds and low RH expected
Thursday, a red flag warning has been issued for Coconino, Navajo
and Apache counties. Strong winds are expected again Friday mostly
in southern Navajo and Apache counties.

The shortwave trough will move across northern Arizona Friday
dropping the temperatures some, but chances for precipitation
over Northern Arizona appear to be minimal with very little
moisture associated with the trough.

A large scale ridge across the Pacific Coast will slowly move
inland and is expected to dominate the weather scene through the
first half of next week with warm dry conditions as this ridge
builds into the region. Highs should be 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions for the next 24
hours. Surface winds til 16z Thu S-SW 5-15kt. Aft 16z Thu SW
15-30KT gusts 30-45KT, fastest winds along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A dry and warm weather pattern will continue through
Thursday. West-southwest winds begin to increase this afternoon...and
Thursday. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are
likley Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Windy coniditons will continue on Friday
with additional cooling. Critical conditions will be possible again
Friday. Warmer condtions are in store for the the Memorial Day


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ104>107-

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004>007-




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