Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032246
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
346 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR FRIDAY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY.

LATE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA UP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEVADA-CALIFORNIA TO REINFORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL BE IN THE REACHES
OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES BEING ON MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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