Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND WIDE SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY COLD
LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE
FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE FASTEST SPEEDS
OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NAVAJO NATIONAL
MONUMENT TO FLAGSTAFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MIDNIGHT...FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A STRONG AND VERY
ACTIVE COLD FRONT...WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR/LIFTING ACTION FLOWING IN A RELATIVE SENSE WESTWARD OVER
THE COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST OF THE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
AND JUST A HEAD OF THE FRONT) TIMING: MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...PAGE TO PAYSON LINE AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO/AZ LINE BY 6 PM SAT. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5000-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO THIS LEVEL ...THE
MODELS SUGGEST WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES. AS PRECIP INTENSITY PICKS UP
WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL TO FLUCTUATE DOWNWARD TO THE
LEVELS MENTION ABOVE...BUT WHEN THE PRECIP INTENSITY DECREASES RAPID
MELTING WILL OCCUR. THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH
2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WARM GROUND SHOULD REDUCE
ACCUMULATIONS AS BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT.
FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL SATURDAY ABOVE 6000-6500
FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 4-10
INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.30-.65 OF AN INCH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FORECASTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. STRONG NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE THE STRONGEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SW10-15G20-25KT AFTER 18Z...DECREASING AGAIN BY
02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ZONES 111 AND 139.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ105-109>114-139-140.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......MS
FIRE WEATHER...MS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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