Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 311112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME STORMS TODAY MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES LIKELY DRYING OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE HAS BEEN DONE TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR WESTERN BORDERS OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...PERHAPS EVEN MORE SO THAN SUNDAY.
THIS IS DUE A WEAK S/WV OVER SOCAL THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL JET SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IN THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMICS
AND COOLING ALOFT TO ACT ON OUR PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A BIT MORE
SHEAR AND CAPE FROM SUNDAY...SO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TRENDS INDICATE
THAT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ACTIVE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND THE DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST.
EVENTUALLY...AS A STRONG EARLY SEASON TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE DRIER AIR MAY WIN OUT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING ON THIS...POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS
TO CONVECT THE AIR MASS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ALONG
WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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