Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 122208
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUING THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CLEAR SKIES, NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY....HOWEVER THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RESULT IN HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EVEN WITH
THE SLIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS
RECORD VALUES THROUGH THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OVER TIMING AND
LOCATION WITH THIS IMPULSE. HAVE HEDGED AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE CONTINUED TREND NORTHWARD OF THE
SYSTEM BY THE ECMWF. WHILE THE GFS DOES HAVE A SOLUTION THAT HAS A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CURRENTLY THE ONLY
EXPECTATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLY SURFACE WINDS AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BRIEFLY
ESTABLISHED AS IT PASSES OVER UTAH AND INTO COLORADO. SUK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MOST LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUK/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...SUK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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