Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
859 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR AREAS OF
NORTH OF I-40 IN NAVAJO ANAD APACHE COUNTIES TO READ ISOLATED
TSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN CLEARING. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
FREDONIA TO FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW ARE SEEING SCATTERED TSTORMS NOW.
THERE ARE SEVERAL  WATER VAPOR LOOP DID SHOW AN MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS HELPED
DEVELOP NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS IN THE LOW DESERTS OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING THIS ACTIVITY WESTWARD AND THERE IS
A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SRN
YAVAPAI COUNTY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION 351 PM...MOST ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. RADAR INDICATES THAT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE ROTATING AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WAS
OBSERVED WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM SOUTH OF CIBECUE IN
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS MOVING WESTWARD AND SHOULD IMPACT
YAVAPAI COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HI-RES MODELS FORECAST
CONVECTION IN YAVAPAI COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE GREATEST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD.
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG WINDS GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTENING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
SHIFT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EASTWARD TO OVER NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. THE SHIFT IS MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT WOULD TURN
SOUTHERLY UNDER THIS PATTERN. AS A RESULT, THE AREA OF MOST STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT, EXTENDING FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD. A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WE`LL
SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOTION GENERALLY TO THE
WEST. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT SCT -TSRA SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KIGM TO KPAN THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AFT 18Z WED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL RR
AVIATION...DL BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.