593
FXUS64 KFWD 150608
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tonight/

Our brief break in shower and thunderstorm activity continues
today as we remain positioned in between shortwave disturbances.
Modest shortwave ridging aloft with strengthening low-level
southerly flow and warm advection will result in a seasonably warm
afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Expect
southerly winds of 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts present
during the afternoon hours. High cloud cover will also be on the
increase late in the day, ushered eastward by a belt of
strengthening upper level westerlies.

By this evening, our next upper trough will begin sharpening to
our west, while a surface front and dryline become convectively
active across portions of West Texas and the Panhandle. Height
falls should allow for elevated showers and isolated storms
rooted above 10 kft to eventually drift eastward into parts of
North Texas, especially after midnight. Strong or severe storms
would be unlikely during the predawn hours though, as this
activity will remain high-based above a rather dry mid-level
layer. Meaningful low-level moisture necessary to produce more
robust convection will be slower to return despite a 40-50 kt low-
level jet, and a richer theta-e airmass will not be present until
after daybreak Thursday morning.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

The much needed break in the rain will only last briefly with
increasing thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday night through
Friday across much of North and Central Texas. Several weak
shortwave disturbances will stream out ahead of the parent
mid-/upper-level trough located over the Desert Southwest helping
to initiate scattered convection along a dryline out in West
Texas late Wednesday afternoon. This activity may approach our Big
Country counties late Wednesday evening, but it is more likely
that we see convection develop over our forecast area later
Wednesday night as a strengthening low-level jet transports
greater quality moisture over locations primarily along/west of
I-35.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the
day Thursday as warm/moist advection further strengthens across
North and Central Texas and the aforementioned upper trough
approaches from the west. With no glaring surface boundaries in
our vicinity, the placement of convection will largely be driven
by mesoscale features. This is leading to some discrepancies in
where the greatest rainfall will fall, but the general trend in
QPF is for rainfall to start along/west of I-35 during the day
Thursday shifting east-southeast toward our Central TX/East
TX/Brazos Valley counties Thursday evening and Thursday night.
Access to more high-resolution guidance over the next 24-36 hours
will help us determine more accurate timing and location details.

Excessive rainfall leading to new and reaggravated flooding
issues will be the primary concern with this event. Most recent
NAM and GFS guidance highlight 1.8-2.0" PWATs south of I-20
Thursday into Thursday night (potentially exceeding climatological
maxima). Corfidi vectors are forecasted to remain generally
parallel to mean storm motions, suggesting the potential for
training/backbuilding thunderstorms. As of now, a widespread
0.5-1.5" of rainfall seems likely with a 30-40% chance that
locations across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley see totals
exceed 2" through Friday and a 10-20% chance that totals exceed
4". The Weather Prediction Center has included much of the already
water-logged area south of I-20 and east of I-35 in a Moderate
Risk for excessive rainfall where these isolated greater amounts
will likely occur. At least a low end threat for severe weather
will exist Thursday as well with impressive boundary layer
moisture and sufficient instability and shear in place. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible in a few storms,
primarily along/west of I-35 and south of I-20 where thunderstorms
will have access to 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Elevated storms across
portions of East and Southeast Texas may still pose a hail
threat.

The bulk of the rainfall should come to an end from west to east
by early Friday. It is important to note another shortwave
rounding about the southwestern periphery of the parent trough may
bring another shot of heavy rainfall to our southern counties
Friday evening/night, however a majority of current guidance keeps
this activity generally south and east of our forecast area in the
deeper moisture (something to monitor).

Rain-free conditions will return by Saturday and may extend into
the middle portions of next week as ensembles continue to
highlight a building ridge over the Southern Plains toward the end
of the weekend. On the other hand, this would tick temperatures up
into the upper 80s to mid-90s for much of North and Central Texas
by Sunday. With abundant moisture remaining over the region, it is
possible we see heat indices rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period. Light SE winds near 5 kts
will increase to 10-20 kts by midday with some higher afternoon
gusts possible. A cirrus canopy will spill into the area from the
west by late afternoon, with increasing mid clouds arriving
overnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may also arrive
from the west between 06-12z Thursday morning, and VCSH has been
introduced into the extended DFW TAF.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  90  68  80  67 /   0   0  20  60  60
Waco                62  88  66  78  67 /   0   0  20  80  60
Paris               57  87  66  83  64 /   0   0  10  30  70
Denton              63  88  66  80  65 /   0   0  30  60  70
McKinney            62  88  66  80  65 /   0   0  20  50  70
Dallas              63  89  68  81  67 /   0   0  20  60  60
Terrell             61  88  66  80  65 /   0   0  20  50  70
Corsicana           62  88  66  81  67 /   0   0  20  70  70
Temple              63  89  65  79  67 /   0   0  20  80  50
Mineral Wells       60  91  65  78  64 /   0   0  40  80  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$