Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 132355 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CHALLENGES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE TIMING CIGS AND HOW LOW
THEY GET BY/AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE A SECONDARY CONCERN LATE IN
THE PD...WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS
LATE SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE EVENING
WHEN THE ENHANCEMENT OF AN OVERNIGHT LLJ HELPS ENHANCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DFW SUNDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME
VARIABLE AND 5 KTS OR LESS.

IN ADDITION...GULF MOISTURE WILL DRAW UP QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL AIRPORTS BY/AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD EITHER SCATTER OR RISE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY AFTER MIDDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RICH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND HAVE RE-
INTRODUCED HIGH MVFR CIGS AT DFW AREA AIRPORTS BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO MINIMAL AT THIS TIME LATE SUNDAY FOR
ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST...WITH BEST CHANCES FURTHER EAST
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/
AN IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT
MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 2 PM. THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
A COLD FRONT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOW WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH.

DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIPITATION. THE AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
MONDAY WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
AND A REINFORCEMENT OF GULF MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THEREFORE...FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  71  50  69  47 /   5  20  30  10   0
WACO, TX              51  74  51  72  43 /  10  20  30  10   0
PARIS, TX             45  63  48  66  45 /   5  20  50  30   5
DENTON, TX            49  69  47  68  45 /   5  20  30  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  68  49  67  45 /   5  20  40  20   0
DALLAS, TX            51  71  52  70  49 /   5  20  30  10   0
TERRELL, TX           49  69  51  69  46 /   5  20  40  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  72  55  72  48 /  10  20  30  30   0
TEMPLE, TX            51  74  52  73  46 /  10  20  20  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  72  45  70  44 /   5  10  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79


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