Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240436 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1136 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Surface high pressure is cresting overhead at this hour resulting
in light and variable winds, which will become south-
southeasterly overnight. No aviation concerns are anticipated
through the forecast period, and VFR will prevail with passing
high clouds on Monday. A southerly breeze will persist Monday
night as an area of low pressure passes well to our north.

Carlaw

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
Overall, the weather is expected to remain quiet for the next few
days, but a longwave trough setting up across the country will bring
some changes by the middle and end of the week. Monday will be a
transition day from upper level ridging to zonal flow in advance of
the incoming longwave trough. South winds will return across the
region and begin to slowly transport better low-level moisture back
north. The cold front earlier this weekend, pushed deep into the
Gulf of Mexico, and it will take some time to recover the low-level
moisture. Most of the models are in good agreement that 50s to lower
60s dewpoints will spread across the region on Tuesday, but even
this timing may be a little too fast.

The dryline will start to take shape in West Texas on Monday. A lead
disturbance within the longwave trough will drop into the Four
Corners region on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will move across
the Plains and the dryline will advance into our western counties
Tuesday afternoon. A lack of large scale forcing and strong cap is
expected to prevent storm development along the dryline, but west
winds behind the dryline will result in a very warm day with lower
and mid 90 degree temps in our western zones in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, warm 80 degree temperatures are expected. This system
will push a front through the region on Wednesday resulting in
cooler high temperatures across all but our Central Texas counties.
The front is currently not expected to arrive there until the
afternoon hours, and temperatures will warm in the lower and mid 80s
ahead of the front. Isolated to scattered areas of light rain may
occur east of Interstate 35 late Tuesday night and early Wednesday
morning as low level moisture continues to return north
underneath the cap. By late morning and afternoon, some storms may
occur along the eastward advancing cold front, again east of
Interstate 35/35E. These storms could be strong or severe
depending on the timing of the front.

Wednesday night will be dry and the potential for rain/storms on
Thursday is currently looking low. Wednesday`s front is forecast
to push south to the Texas Coast and then begin returning north on
Thursday. During the afternoon hours, it could be moving through
Central Texas, but its location during the day is uncertain at
this time. The dryline will again move to a position near or just
west of our CWA. However, forecast models show we will be under
the influence of height rises aloft in the wake of Wednesday`s
departing disturbance. The lack of large-scale lift and a
continued strong cap, combined with questionable moisture return,
lends low confidence in any convective chances on Thursday, but
will maintain low PoPs generally across the northern half and
western third of the CWA, closest to the locations of the
boundaries.

Storm chances on Friday also are questionable as the models are
trending towards a slower arrival of the next upper level
disturbances. Instability increases on Friday as better moisture
moves across the region, but without a good source for lift,
Friday may be a dry day, too. Forecast soundings show the cap may
weaken late in the day, and if there is any source for lift
embedded with the southwest flow aloft, some storms may be able to
form along the dryline to our west. If storms develop, they will
be severe with a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and even a
few tornadoes. Will keep low rain chances confined to our western
counties Friday and Friday night.

As we head into the weekend, the large upper level trough will
finally eject into the Plains, sending a dryline and front
through. Timing of these features is still too far out to tell
with certainty and will likely change over the course of the next
several days. Right now the best rain chances are Saturday
afternoon into Sunday, and I would expect a severe weather threat
will exist, too.

JLDunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  80  62  88  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Waco                47  80  59  88  70 /   0   5   5  10  10
Paris               46  78  56  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Denton              46  79  59  89  62 /   0   0   0  10  10
McKinney            47  79  59  85  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dallas              53  80  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Terrell             47  79  59  85  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
Corsicana           48  80  59  86  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
Temple              47  80  60  87  70 /   0   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       46  82  58  93  60 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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