Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250452 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1152 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
A Pacific cold front had moved to near a KF00-KINJ-KLZZ line as
of 04z. The front will move through the KACT around 06z. Isolated
showers/thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front
overnight. Expect VFR at the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites through
12z Sunday. West winds around 15 knots will become west northwest
to northwesterly overnight tonight. Some gusts to 20 knots are
possible at the Metroplex TAF sites. Wind speeds will decrease mid
to late Saturday afternoon and become light and variable around
sunset. As a surface high moves off to the east and a lee side
trough develops, winds will become light southerly 03-05z Sunday.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
Main update was to tweak PoPs/Wx/Sky grids based on current
trends. In addition, expired Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning at
8 PM.

A bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to
drift off towards the east this evening. At 9 PM, the surface
dryline was noted near a Sherman/Denison to DFW to Killeen line.
The airmass ahead of this boundary remains moist and we`ve seen an
occasional storm or two develop down across Central TX. Overall,
severe weather potential looks to be on the downward trend, mainly
due to the loss of daytime heating. I`ll keep a mention of
showers and a few storms here as well as there could be additional
development as the cold front overtakes the dryline. Further to
the north, this process likely explains the development of high-
based showers along the Red River. With that in mind, I`ve added a
low chance for showers along and north of Highway 380 through
about 1 AM with low rain chances across eastern and southern
zones.

The rest of the forecast remains unchanged and updated products
have been sent.

24-Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/
Water vapor and visible satellite imagery shows a powerful upper
low moving through the Southern Plains this afternoon. The center
of the low is moving through the TX Panhandle with a rather large
dry slot surging eastward across much of Texas. At the surface, a
dryline is positioned just west of the Metroplex and has been
nearly stationary over the last 90 minutes or so. East of the
dryline, a narrow band of showers and a few thunderstorms
continues to push eastward within an area of moderate to strong
warm advection. So far the convection has been rather
unimpressive, likely inhibited by a general lack of surface based
instability. Temperatures where clouds/precipitation are occurring
are relatively cold, with readings in the mid 50s. So despite the
dryline still being to the west, and what appears to be increasing
forcing for ascent, the atmosphere has been slow to recover in
the wake of ongoing precipitation. The only exception at this hour
is across our far southeastern counties where a very narrow axis
of surface based instability has developed. A new line of
convection has attempted to develop in this area and this should
continue to be the main area of concern through the remainder of
the afternoon. This area is generally from Cameron to Groesbeck to
Palestine and areas southeast of there. For the remainder of this
afternoon/evening, best rain chances will be across the far
eastern counties with a limited severe weather threat.

Concerning the Wind Advisory/Red Flag Warning...We`ll go ahead
and pull Grayson/Collin/Dallas from the Red Flag Warning given
that RH values will likely remain higher east of the nearly
stationary dryline. Even if the dryline does drift farther east,
RH values are likely to remain above critical thresholds this
evening. The Wind Advisory will remain in place through early
evening. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph are likely to continue with
higher gusts.

With the main line of showers/storms moving to the east by this
evening, most areas will remain precipitation free through the
overnight hours. There is a small chance for additional convective
development along the actual cold front as the upper low moves
east overnight. This would be most likely to occur across our far
southeast counties.

Tomorrow should be a rather nice day behind this system with
temperatures in the 70s and dry northwest winds but another
shortwave will be quick on its heels moving into the 4-corners
region Saturday night. As southerly flow commences, moisture will
return northward into Sunday. An axis of moderate instability is
expected to develop across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA by Sunday
afternoon as forcing for ascent increases. A dryline should also
be positioned across our western counties. Dynamically, this setup
is favorable for severe weather, however the main question will be
the quality of moisture return through Sunday afternoon. If
moisture can recover sufficiently, then an appreciable severe
weather threat will exist. We`ll have the highest PoPs generally
along and north of of I-20 into our northeast counties late Sunday
afternoon into the evening hours.

Beyond Sunday, the next potential big weather maker will arrive
during the middle of next week. A powerful upper low will swing
through Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday initially bringing a
severe weather threat. As the closed low gets closer, deep
southerly flow will keep a steady fetch of Gulf moisture flowing
into the region which would result in a heavy rainfall potential.
We`ll continue to monitor the specifics of this event over the
coming days given the consistent signals in the model guidance.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    53  74  55  85  58 /  10   0   0  30  30
Waco                51  76  53  84  59 /   5   0   0  10  20
Paris               53  71  51  81  58 /  30   0   0  20  50
Denton              51  72  51  84  56 /  20   0   0  30  20
McKinney            52  72  51  82  57 /  20   0   0  30  30
Dallas              55  75  56  85  59 /  10   0   0  30  30
Terrell             53  73  52  83  58 /  20   0   0  20  30
Corsicana           54  75  54  84  59 /  10   0   0  20  20
Temple              51  77  55  84  59 /   5   0   0  10  10
Mineral Wells       50  74  52  87  53 /  10   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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