Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 061813
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WHEN THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL
RESULT IN THE LOSS OF DEEP MIXING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR
CIGS BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...KEPT THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIED TO A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON
TUESDAY...AND WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS IS KEY TO WHERE THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINE UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL
NORTHWEST OF ALL DFW AREA TAF SITES...SO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE CONUS THIS MORNING IS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A 500 MB RIDGE
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
THE TROUGH PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER REGION OF
NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TUESDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. AREA VAD
WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATING A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KT AT 2000
FT. SOLAR HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THIS ENERGY MIXING TO
THE SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL TO BE APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND WE SHOULD BECOME CLOSE AT TIMES TODAY. SINCE
THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS KEEPING US JUST BELOW
CRITERIA...WE WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
VELOCITIES WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AS MODEST ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. BETTER
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS
DOWN TO THE RED RIVER AREA...AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/ APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW OF OUR
COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ...AND THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. A FEW MODELS SHIFT THE
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS
DIFFICULT TO SWALLOW GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TIME OF
YEAR. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT BOTH THE FRONT AND HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...BUT OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SETS...WE WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
MOST LOCATIONS AND TAPER THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG A SULPHUR
SPRINGS...DALLAS...GOLDTHWAITE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE RED
RIVER WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. RIDGING WILL
INTENSIFY ALOFT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST
BEYOND THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  78  92  78  91 /   5  10  20  20  20
WACO, TX              93  75  91  76  92 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             90  75  90  74  88 /   5  10  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            92  76  91  74  89 /   5  10  30  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          91  76  91  76  89 /   5  10  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            93  79  94  78  91 /   5  10  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           92  74  91  75  91 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  75  92  75  92 /   5   5  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  76  91  75  92 /   5   5  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  74  90  73  89 /   5  20  30  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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