Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
605 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening with only
some passing cirrus clouds. Surface high pressure is centered over
North Texas which is resulting in very light winds. This surface
high will move to the east over the next few hours and light
southerly winds will become established. Winds will increase
during the day Monday. No significant aviation concerns are
expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 326 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/
The axis of a surface high is draped across North Texas this
afternoon. A few lingering gusts from the north remain across
Central and East Texas, and southerly flow has returned to West
Texas. Even where north winds have prevailed today, abundant
sunshine effectively heated the dry surface layer, and
temperatures have recovered considerably from the chilly start to
the day.

The surface high will continue sliding east, and southerly winds
will gradually return tonight. Speeds will be too light to
provide any appreciable warm advection, and the high cloudiness
should do little to prevent another cool night. However, Monday
morning`s low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
Sunday`s in many areas. The difference will be most noticeable
across the western zones, where southerly winds will prevail
longer (and where some locations dipped into the 20s Sunday
Morning).

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/
/Monday through early next week/

For the holiday week, our upper level flow pattern will largely
be influenced by a ridge to our west which will maintain
generally northwest flow aloft across North and Central Texas.
Unfortunately, the upper level ridge is expected to slide a little
east later in the week (closer to North and Central Texas) which
will result in temperatures several degrees above normal to finish
the week. Two fronts are expected to reach the region in the next
7 days, but there`s very little chance for measurable rainfall.
Overall, tranquil weather is expected through at least next
weekend, and this will benefit regional holiday travelers.

Temperatures on Monday are expected to be a few degrees warmer
than Sunday, mostly due to a brief return of south winds in the
lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. A 10-15 mph breeze is
expected in the afternoon hours and high clouds will pass through
the region. Winds of 5-15 mph will continue overnight, and with
the help of the southerly winds, some meager moisture will return
north Monday night into Tuesday. Monday night will be noticeably
warmer with overnight lows in the 40s.

On Tuesday, an upper level disturbance will drop south across the
region bringing our next cold front with it. The front will reach
the region around midday and finally pass through our remaining
Central Texas counties in the evening hours. The NAM still hints
at the potential for sprinkles or possibly brief light rain across
an area from Cameron to Palestine, but most model forecast
soundings indicate the depth of the lower level moisture will be
too shallow for measurable precipitation, and have kept silent 10
PoPs. Ahead of the front, south to southwest winds will help push
temperatures into the 70s across Central Texas. Wednesday will be
cooler across all the region with highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. This cold front will push well into the Gulf of Mexico, and
north winds will prevail across the Gulf through the end of the
week. This will cut off our moisture supply for the remainder of
the week.

The upper level ridge will expand its influence over the region
for the remainder of the week resulting in quickly warming
temperatures starting Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). Thanksgiving
Day will be sunny and pleasant but above normal for temperatures.
Temperatures will warm even more on Friday with highs in our
western counties approaching 80 degrees.

Our next front reaches the region on Saturday, and the ECMWF and
GFS are in better agreement regarding an arrival time around
midday. No precipitation is expected with this front due to a lack
of sufficient moisture return. With the upper level ridge still
having a considerable influence over the region, the coldest air
behind this front is expected to be shunted northeast of North
Texas, and a quick return to warming temperatures is likely early
next week. However, there is a strong upper level trough that
enters the Pacific NW early next week that we will watch in hopes
of unlocking some colder air to spill into the region by the end
of the month.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    43  65  49  66  43 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                38  65  48  71  46 /   0   5   5   5   5
Paris               38  62  44  65  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              38  64  46  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  63  46  65  39 /   0   0   0   5   5
Dallas              43  65  49  67  44 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             38  63  46  67  43 /   0   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           41  64  48  70  45 /   0  10  10   5   5
Temple              38  66  47  72  47 /   0  10  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       37  66  44  67  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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