Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 242321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW TSTMS IN
WESTERN NEB BUT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE TERMINAL AREA
ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS A WIND SHIFT WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 14-15Z IN THE EAR AND GRI AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...EWALD



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