Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 302346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Updated the forecast this evening to increase sky cover
significantly, due to the nearly solid shield of mid to upper
level sky cover that looks like it will hang around for several
hours. This could hold up temperatures from dropping off as fast,
but it appears that a late night clearing still looks plausible,
which will allow temperatures to take a quick drop by early
morning. This will probably hold off the fog development, but I
anticipate a potential quick hit of fog in our eastern/northeast
quarter of the CWA with light upslope flow. The HRRR seems to be
hitting this pretty hard, and I have hit wording a bit harder from
patchy to areas of fog for much of our east. Not looking for dense
fog, necessarily, considering that the shield of clouds should
give us quite a late start to fog development.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Satellite and observations show that cirrus has moved across the
forecast area through the day. Most of it is still thin enough that
the sun comes through, but there are clouds. The surface high that
has been over the area has moved to the east and winds are turning
to the south.

The surface high continues to move to the east tonight, but the
pressure gradient does not tighten so winds will continue to be
fairly light through the night. The light winds will allow
temperatures to fall off toward morning. Have kept the lower
temperatures, especially in the north where low temperatures have
been pretty cool.

Saturday the winds should remain fairly light since the pressure
gradient does not tighten much. They will be more from the south
during the day. There is some additional moisture that arrives on
the south winds and there will be a few more clouds. The main
question is whether there will be any precipitation. The NAM
continues to show some very spotty QPF, but there is less than the
previous runs have had and the WRF is dry. Will once again keep the
forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Saturday night through Monday an upper level ridge will move across
the plains. Temperatures will warm up, with Monday being the warmest
day of the period. The pressure gradient is the tightest Monday and
the winds will be the strongest. The winds at 850mb are around 45
kts during the afternoon.

An upper level low moves through the Rockies and into the northern
plains Monday night through Wednesday. The main energy is to the
north with the upper low, but the trough moves through the forecast
area. At the surface, there is a surface low and cold front moves
into the forecast area Tuesday night. Thunderstorms are expected to
move into the forecast area during the night Monday night and spread
across the area. With the front in the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, the best chances for thunderstorms will be Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The best chances will be in the east, ahead of the
front. There is MUCAPE of up to 1000 j/kg across the east during the
afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday
before the trough moves to the east.

Wednesday night through Friday there will be northwest flow across
the area and a surface high settles into the area. This will bring
clearing skies and lighter winds. Temperatures will return to near
normal again.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Main concern will be visibility as mid to upper level sky cover
should clear late night, allowing a drop in visibility with light
upslope flow.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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