Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
403 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A few high cirrus will be drifting through today preventing a true
blue bird (clear blue skies) afternoon. Expect dry and stable
conditions through Thursday as high pressure builds over the
Central Rockies. This will bring a quick jump in temperatures the
next two days with near record warmth expected on Thursday. More
details on that thinking down below in our climate section. Winds
will be light today and primarily terrain driven, which means
upslope and upvalley winds during the day and downsloping or
downvalley winds at night. Gradients do tighten up by Thursday
afternoon with breezy conditions returning as the next Pacific
system approaches the West Coast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The next trough in the Eastern Pacific moves onshore along the
West Coast and will strengthen southwest winds over the Great
Basin by Friday. Strong southwest winds of 25 to 35 mph will
develop over much of eastern Utah and extreme western Colorado.
Winds will be strongest across northeastern Utah where the 70 kt
upper level jet will reach. These breezy conditions will continue
through the weekend with some decoupling possible at lower
elevations between the sunset to sunrise time period. Overall
conditions will remain unstable with a shower or two possible over
the weekend, particularly on Sunday. The trough looks to finally
push through as a cold front on Sunday night or early Monday. At
this point there is major differentiation on 700 mb temps by
Monday (5 to 8 degree difference) in the long range models and
timing and extent of precipitation as well. Cooler unsettled
conditions are expected for next week, with temperatures closer
to climo than we have been seeing recently.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions expected over the region through Thursday morning.
Any patchy valley fog will be burning off by 15z this morning
and is not expected to impact terminal sites. Winds will be
primarily terrain drive through the period.


Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Near Record High Temperatures Possible Around The Area

A strong ridge of high pressure building over the Central Rockies
will bring unseasonable warm temperatures to eastern Utah and
western Colorado over the next few days. A few record or near
record high temperatures look likely on Thursday as the ridge
positions overhead. Here is a list of record high temperatures and
the forecast high temperature on Thursday at several locations
around our forecast area. Note: some locations will not reach
their record high temperature. Also keep in mind that the
forecast could change.

Location                Thurs Record  Year      Forecast High
                          High Temp              (as of Tue)

Arches Natl Park              79      1999           77
Aspen                         68      1950           67
Cortez                        75      1950           74
Craig                         73      1937           71
Crested Butte                 72      1915           60
Grand Junction                74      1966           75
Moab                          85      1926           77
Montrose                      79      1960           73
Ridgway                       75      2008           71
Rifle                         78      1952           74
Steamboat Springs             76      1894           69




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