Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE
EACH DAY.

A LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THEN LIFTS OUT TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS FLOW ALOFT...AIDING IN THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DIURNAL OSCILLATIONS AS DISTURBANCES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
DEPICTED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
TENDED TO TRY AND BROAD-BRUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KGLD WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR...WHILE KMCK WILL REACH VFR MORE
SLOWLY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH KMCK TONIGHT AS
THEY GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024


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