Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

The forecast area is beginning to feel the effects of the storm
system moving east of the Rockies and across the Central High Plains
Region today into the Central Plains states on Monday.  As of mid
day today, light drizzle and freezing drizzle had spread eastward
across the region with a transition to light snow over eastern
Colorado and the eastern Colorado border area.  Also at mid day
today, the surface low center was over far northeast New Mexico
while the upper low center wasn`t far away and appeared to be moving
across southwest Colorado.

The upper low center is expected to move across southwest Kansas
this evening and into the Kansas City area by mid day on Monday
while the surface low center moves along the frontal boundary
through the Panhandle region this afternoon and lifts across the
Kansas City area Monday morning in advance of the upper low center.
As this system transitions across the region, expect some light ice
accumulations to continue in the areas of freezing drizzle mainly
east of Highway 27, moving eastward until the transition to snow can
occur across the entire forecast area by early this evening. Around
one tenth of an inch of ice is possible with some localized higher
amounts, but less than one quarter of an inch of ice is expected.

The greatest snowfall amounts should occur from late this afternoon
through the early morning hours on Monday morning.  Portions of Yuma
county have already measured 3 inches of new snow today with the
northern sections of the forecast area expected to receive between
10 and 12 inches of snow eastward along the Nebraska and Kansas
border region. Snowfall amounts will taper off to about 8 to 10
inches along the I-70 corridor to around 3 to 5 inches along the
southern border of the forecast area into southwest Kansas.

Along with the concern surrounding the total snowfall amounts, the
bigger concern is the possibility of strong north winds on the back
side of this system as it begins to lift out across the plains.
These strong winds and fresh snow are expected to produce
blizzard conditions across the forecast area. Late this afternoon
and evening north winds are expected to increase to between 30 and
40 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph. Current guidance shows winds
a little slower to increase and spread eastward across the region
than previously expected, so the onset areas of blowing and
drifting snow have also been delayed slightly into the late
afternoon and evening hours today.

As the actual snowfall associated with this storm tapers off from
west to east across the forecast area on Monday, the strong winds
will remain mainly across the eastern sections of the forecast area
well into the afternoon.  This will keep the possibility of blowing
and drifting snow associated with blizzard conditions in place
across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area. Have
decided to extend the easternmost segment of the current Blizzard
Warning through 18Z on Monday. This will match up much better with
the surrounding offices and the current forecast

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Ridging builds over the region through late next week, followed by
southwest flow Thursday as a positively tilted upper trough moves
towards the Central Rockies. This trough moves over our CWA Friday,
however main forcing splits around our CWA, so besides slight/chance
PoPS mainly north of light rain/snow most will remain dry through
the extended periods. Any accumulation with that trough passage
should be light, with moisture advection and period of "best" lift
limited by the progressive nature of the system.

Regarding temperatures: There will be a large caveat to all
temperatures through the extended and that will be where and how
much snow pack remains on the ground as this will greatly limit
daytime mixing and potential daytime warming. Trend should be
towards the warmest day on Thursday in deep southwest flow and where
there isn`t snow we may have highs in the lower 60s. All bets are
off where snow lingers, but at the very least we should see better
melting on Thursday. I trended highs down in our north. Temperatures
should drop as the trough and associated cold front move through the
region Friday and highs will once again be at or below seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 439 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Major winter storm affect the region. For Kgld, through 13z Lifr
to vlifr conditions will be in place with north winds increasing
from 23 to 28 knots and gusts going from near 23 knots into the 38
to 43 knot range. From 13z to 15z ifr conditions will start out
and improve to mvfr, mainly due to blowing snow, and continue
until 19z. North winds be near 24 knots with gusts to near 31
knots. At 19z vfr conditions return and continue through the end
of the period. Northwest winds of near 22 knots with gusts to
near 30 knots will stop gusting and decrease to 13 knots very late
in the period.

For Kmck, vlifr to lifr conditions will continue through 05z with
north winds of 21 knots with gusts to near 31 knots. From 05z to
11z lifr conditions are expected with north winds near 26 knots
and gusts to near 36 knots. Beginning at 11z ifr conditions will
be in place and continue until 17z as north winds will range from
22 to 29 knots with the strongest early and the gusts will be 30
to 38 knots during that time. From 17z to 19z conditions will
transition from mvfr to vfr with the vfr conditions remaining the
rest of the period. Northwest winds will remain near 22 knots with
gusts to near 30 knots.


KS...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KSZ001-002-

     Blizzard Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ003-004-015-016-

CO...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092.

NE...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for NEZ079-080.

     Blizzard Warning until noon CST Monday for NEZ081.



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