Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas of low clouds and fog will be the main concern early today
and again overnight tonight followed by another extended period of
precipitation between early Friday and Saturday night.

Showers have moved well out of the region, but with plenty of
surface and low level moisture still in place across the region
from the recent rainfall, widespread low clouds and patchy areas
of fog blanket the area mainly east of the Colorado border early
this morning.

As the low pressure system continues to move to the east and
temperatures warm into the 60s across the western sections and 50s
across the eastern sections of the forecast area today, expect
the low clouds and fog to also move east and dissipate. There is
some potential for the far eastern sections of the forecast area
to not completely clear out during the day today before fog and
low clouds redevelop across the forecast area after about 04Z
tonight. The redevelopment in low clouds and fog tonight is a
result of the low level flow turning back to the southeast tonight
ahead of the next system that is due to start moving east of the
rockies and across the plains by late Friday and Saturday. Rain
will begin to spread across the forecast area from west to east as
the next low center begins moving slowly across the rockies and
plains early Friday morning and will continue through Friday
night, Saturday, and into Saturday evening before dissipating as
the main trough axis finally moves across the area Saturday night
and early Sunday morning.

Both Friday night and Saturday night there is the expectation the
western sections of the forecast area will see rain changing to
snow as temperatures drop to near or below freezing. The far
western sections of the forecast area over Colorado could see as
much as 3 inches of snow over both nights while areas east of the
Colorado border area will likely see little to no snowfall

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Main focus for this period will be the upper level trough moving
through the Plains Monday night through Wednesday.  Currently there
is not much variance in the GFS and ECMWF track of the trough. The
earlier model run of the ECMWF (12z) was south of the latest GFS,
which itself had moved further south from its previous run and
deepened.  The current model run of the ECMWF (0z) is now slightly
to the north of its previous run, more in line with GFS.  While the
GFS track still has very good chances for rainfall as does the
previous ECMWF, the further north option may mean the longer
duration of chances for rainfall will be over Nebraska instead of
over part of the Tri-State Area.  The current ECMWF is still slower
than the GFS.  Models typically are too fast with closed lows like
this one, so would expect the speed of the low to slow down over the
coming days.  The slower the low will move east, the longer the
precipitation will be over the Tri-State Area.

A cold front will move through Tuesday.  Behind the front north
winds will rapidly increase, with gusts around 60 MPH possible where
the cold front will move through in the afternoon and evening. The
wind gusts will be strongest during the afternoon and into the
evening, then decline some overnight. Wednesday the winds will be
much lower as the closed low moves east of the forecast area.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have cooler highs for Tuesday in the west 1/3
than what is forecast.  Did cool highs 5 or so degrees from initial
model blend, but that may not be enough.  If the trend continues,
may need to lower highs further for Tuesday, especially if the front
moves through earlier in the day.

The entire Tri-State Area will have a good shot at receiving
precipitation with this trough.  The majority of the precipitation
will begin behind a cold front Tuesday afternoon that moves in from
the west. Am expecting almost all of the precipitation to be rain
until Tuesday night when the cooler air behind the cold front moves
in. During Tuesday night, the snow could spread over the west half
of the forecast area.  The GFS is suggesting snow may occur or be
mixed with rain for the west half or so of the forecast area on
Tuesday. Based on high temperatures from the majority of the models,
have a hard time placing much confidence in that at this time.
However snow Tuesday is not out of the question given the cooler
highs shown by the GFS and ECMWF, especially if the cold front comes
in during the morning.

Snowfall amounts will be highly dependent on how quickly the cold
air moves into the forecast area.  The earlier the cold front
arrives, the more snowfall will occur.  As mentioned by the day
shift, have very little confidence in any amounts at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

CIGS will improve at both terminals early in the TAF period,
though MVFR cigs may linger a little longer at KMCK than current
guidance indicates based on obs/current trends. VFR should prevail
by the late afternoon and the early evening.

Southeasterly flow will help bring good low level moisture
shifting to an easterly/upslope direction across a long fetch over
the region by Friday morning. This should support stratus/fog
redevelopment late tonight and the possibility for persistent
LIFR conditions through much of the day Friday. Low level
moisture is shown to pool near the Colorado state line east of a
stationary front/surface low pressure. This puts KGLD in line for
a better chance of dense fog and visibilities lower than 1sm.
Despite low level winds increasing to 10-14kt range advection fog
in this pattern will dominate and low visibilities should still
be expected. KMCK is less certain on dense fog, but LIFR CIGS are
still anticipated Friday morning.


CO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ090.



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