Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AS WEST MID LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE NEXT ONE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO. ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE CURRENT
SNOW FIELD ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
NEITHER ESPECIALLY DEEP NOR EXTENSIVE...THOUGH IT WILL STILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
30S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FORECAST BEGINS TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. IT WILL REACH THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AROUND 12Z MONDAY...AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
THEN CONTINUE FOR 24 HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY DROP TO -16 CELSIUS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SO THE BIG MESSAGE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.

THE SNOW POTENTIAL IS A LARGE QUESTION. GFS/NAM DEPICT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A 300 MB JET AXIS
OF 120 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. NAM ANALOGS SUPPORT A 2-4 INCH FORECAST.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...AND LOW LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IS MARGINAL. WILL GO
WITH A BASIC 1-3 INCH FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO CHECK THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS
WHICH SHOULD ADD MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS.

DYNAMICS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
CONTINUED COLD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THOSE DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GFS AND ECMWF
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW KICKING OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE TOWARDS THE GFS AND BRINGS IT FURTHER NORTH BUT NOT QUITE
AS FAR AS THE GFS...WHICH PAINTS A FAIRLY DECENT SWATH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LEOTI
TO HILL CITY. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
ALL THAT GREAT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 12Z THEN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z VRB05KTS THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH AROUND 10KTS BY 12Z THEN GUSTING 15-20KTS FROM 15Z THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER 15Z.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 10Z THEN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 09Z VRB05KTS THEN BECOMING
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS AT 10Z. AROUND 14Z NORTHEAST WINDS GUST
15-20KTS WITH LIGHT SNOW AFTER 14Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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