Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHIFT SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z (FIRST AT KMCK...THEN AT KGLD) WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
PREVAIL THE CONDITIONS AND IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO ADD TEMPO
GROUP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR



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