Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Latest upper air data shows the ridge over the Central Rockies.
Water vapor imagery shows a very dry environment between the I-80
and I-70 corridors from the Rockies east into Central Nebraska and
Central Kansas.  At the surface a high pressure was moving east out
of the Tri-State Area.

Tonight will be similar to last night, although lows will not be
quite as cool due to some warm air advection occurring with the
south winds.

Monday will continue to be dry as the ridge builds over the Central
Plains and an upper level short wave trough tracks over the Northern
Plains. Highs will be warmer than today by a few degrees. Winds will
be breezy in the afternoon as breezy 850mb winds mix to the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monday night-Thursday: Monday night should remain dry with low
temperatures running a bit above normal. Starting Tuesday, upper
level ridge begins to flatten out through the day and allow for a
more zonal to NW flow aloft. This upper flow will bring through a
series of shortwaves with decent PVA across the Central High Plains.
Combined with leeside troughing and a surface low, this will bring
the area chances of storms and showers through the period. While
bulk shear values look to remain low, decent MUCAPE values and
high PWATs will give the CWA a chance at seeing a strong to severe
storm each afternoon and evening in this time frame. Temperatures
for Tuesday will be well above normal with eastern areas seeing
highs around 100. Should cool to just below or near normal temps
for the rest of the period.

Friday-Sunday: Upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies placing
us in strong NW flow. Will have chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon. Temperatures will be just above or near normal for
the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 504 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld,
southeast winds around 7 knots will shift to the south at around
10 knots by late this evening. Those south winds will continue
through the morning. At around midday those winds will become
sustained near 16 knots with gusts to near 24 knots. Those winds
will continue through the end of the period.

For Kmck, southeast winds around 7 knots will shift to the south
southeast around midnight. Those winds will continue through mid
morning tomorrow. At that time the winds will be south at near 12
knots until early afternoon. Early in the afternoon the winds will
become sustained near 14 knots with gusts around 22 knots.




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