Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 071503

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1003 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

A drying trend will continue for several days as high pressure
eases into the area. A reinforcing cold front will arrive tonight
and early Thursday, bringing the coldest airmass so far this
season into the area. High and low temperatures well below normal
will persist Thursday night through Saturday before a moderating
trend commences early next week when the next cold front arrives.


As of 945 AM EST Wednesday: Visible satellite imagery and
observations have shown the gradual improvement and dissipation of
the dense fog across the Piedmont and foothills of the Carolinas and
northeast Georgia. Only two locations remain with a visibility less
than 1/4 mile, so the ending of the Dense Fog Advisory looks to be
right on schedule at 15Z. Temp/dewpt trends look good, so the only
items for the morning update will be to drop the Advisory and to
make some alterations to the sky cover to account for fog that has
temporarily lifted to a low cloud deck over the Piedmont. Otherwise,
the afternoon should be fair.

Meanwhile, the next weather-maker in the form of a strong upper low
will be sliding east across the U.S./Canada border, with a very
strong and very cold Arctic high diving into the High Plains late
today. The front ahead of the high isn`t really all that wet and
with each run they`ve trended drier. WPC doesn`t even bring any QPF
into the forecast area anymore, but for the sake of consistency did
blend in a little from the previous run (what`s 0.01" among
friends?). What little moisture there is associated with the front
will all get squeezed out over the mountains (though the rest of us
could see an increase in clouds overnight tonight). It`ll be cold
enough that the higher elevations will likely see some snow showers
or at least flurries, but again just not enough moisture for any


As of 200 AM EST Wednesday...A broad upper trough will drift east
across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday thru
Friday. This trough will bring a strong, but rather dry, cold front
thru the region on Thursday. Strong 850 mb CAA will ramp up across
the NC mountains during the day, resulting in gusty winds and
falling temps. The piedmont will see temps near normal, while the
mountains will be about 10 degrees below normal Thursday. The gusty
winds will linger thru the overnight in the high terrain, but become
fairly light in the piedmont. Temps will fall into the teens in the
mountains and 20s piedmont. The combination of wind and temps will
result in wind chills in the 0 to -10 F range toward daybreak
Friday. Wind chill advisory is -5, and generally only elevations
above 5000 ft look to get that cold.

On Friday...a modified arctic air mass will build in from the NW.
Winds will gradually subside in the mountains, but it will still
feel brisk, with temps at least 10-15 degrees below normal, despite
sunny skies. The center of the high settles over the central
Appalachians by 12z Saturday. Lighter winds will keep wind chills
above advisory criteria, but overall, it will be a chilly night.
Lows in the teens to mid 20s.


As of 130 AM EST Wednesday:  The very cold airmass in place Saturday
under surface high pressure centered over our region will move east
and offshore from the mid Atlantic on Sunday. This will bring a
change in wind to a more southerly direction resulting in a
significant warming trend to around normal to start the week.  The
upper pattern will be nearly zonal from this weekend to mid
week across our nation with an average slight trough east of the
Rockies. The next shortwave will cross the Plains Sunday with some
increased in moisture coming out of the Gulf across the SE. Expect
some upslope showers ahead of this system to occur late Sunday and
Sunday night from near Clayton GA to Tryon NC. The southerly 925mb
wind of 15 to 30kts will shift to SW early Monday ending the upslope
affect as it will be more parallel to the ridge lines. Both the GFS
and ECMWF thins out or slightly dries out the approaching frontal
precip band Sunday night into Monday. The GFS dries it out a bit
more. Either way there will be scattered showers over the whole area
but more initially over the NC mountains. There may be some very
brief upslope precip along the TN and NC border north of AVL late
Monday but that is mostly shown on the EC which may be the lower
confidence model. The newest GFS dries our area out rapidly late
Monday with no upslope in Mtns. High pressure builds in briefly on
Tuesday then a mostly dry cold front is nearing from the NW late
Tuesday night. Increase in clouds as a result.

Temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees below normal Saturday will modify
to near normal for Max Temps Monday and Tuesday.


At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread VLIFR fog for the Piedmont TAFs,
with VFR at KAVL and only recent improvement at KHKY. For areas in
the fog, improvement will be slow though KGSP/KGMU look to be on the
edge. Drier air will push into the area briefly later today but then
another round of moisture ahead of the next front will follow
quickly, with cigs again dropping to MVFR this evening. MVFR fog
expected as well. Except KAVL, winds are lgt/vrb but favoring N this
morning and should veer around to SE this afternoon. KAVL`s N winds
will shift NE but then back around NW around 00z.

Outlook: The front will push through the area Thursday, with drier
and much colder conditions into the weekend. Another front will
approach the area Sunday afternoon bringing a chance of
precipitation and restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       Med   70%     High 100%     Med   71%     Med   64%
KGSP       Med   78%     High 100%     High  87%     Med   79%
KAVL       High 100%     High  81%     Low   58%     Med   68%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     Low   47%
KGMU       Med   64%     High 100%     High  86%     Low   57%
KAND       Med   70%     High 100%     Med   73%     Low   56%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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