Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 021845
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETURNING AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF COOLER...ONSHORE
FLOW AND SHOWERY WEATHER PERHAPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLUG OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MOIST. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE
WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY GRAZE
SOUTHERNMOST NH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER ANY LIGHT RAIN MOVES ON OUT OF SOUTHERNMOST NH IN THE
MORNING...THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST EVERYONE.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK TROFFING LINGERING...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL...HOWEVER A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S READINGS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER ON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY EXIT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW WHICH QUICKLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THE OVERALL THEME OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. IN THE DAILIES....ONSHORE FLOW AND A SYSTEM PASSING OFFSHORE
CLOUD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE A DRY DAY
AND A FEW SUNNY BREAKS TO FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ZONES.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOWS
TRACK NORTH ON A STALLED OFFSHORE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. PERHAPS A BRIEF
BREAK LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND THE ARRIVING ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ELEVATION
DEPENDENT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT
LATE MONDAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT OFFERING A WARM DRY DAY
FOR A CHANGE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR TONIGHT AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE GOES LIFR IN FOG
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE METMOS IMPROVES THINGS
QUITE A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN. THE
NARRE-TL IS ON THE SIDE OF THE NAM LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT RATHER THAN SLAMMING EVERYONE DOWN. HAVE SIDED WITH
THE LATTER CONSENSUS WITH NO WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE OR LESS VSBYS.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LOCALLY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - SAT...AREAS OF MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT... AN
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN GENERATING WAVES WHICH WILL HEAD WESTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 FEET SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SUB-SCA MUCH OF TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

WED PM - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
BAYS IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE ARE SET FOR A PERIOD
OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST TIDES WILL BE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS WHEN PORTLAND IS FORECAST TO REACH 11.9 FEET AT
1135 PM AND 1226 AM RESPECTIVELY. COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. IF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS A LITTLE SOONER OR
STRONGER...COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE
THURSDAY EVENING TIDE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS


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