Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 251910
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
310 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight, providing another
round of showers and possible thunderstorms. High pressure will
build in from the west Tuesday through Wednesday. A weak frontal
boundary will settle south from Canada Thursday and will stall
just south of the region on Thursday and perhaps Friday. Areas of
low pressure may travel along this front to our south over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weakening area of showers continue to move east through NY and
VT this afternoon and will start to affect western NH in the next
hour or two. HRRR model seems to have a good handle on this weak
disturbance...although slightly underdone. As this passes through
the region isolated thunder is possible...although most areas will
just see a brief shower as the main area of showers and
thunderstorms passes south of the region.

A second disturbance currently south of Lake Ontario is also
forecast to pass mainly south of the region although it may clip
southern areas. The short wave associated with this disturbance
will pass through the area later this evening...prolonging the
threat of mainly showers with possible thunderstorms. The showers
should move east of the eastern section of area after midnight.

Skies should begin to clear by morning with patchy fog developing
as dew points remain high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...The area should see
partly sunny skies Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds
into the area. A weak boundary north of the region will allow for
only a slight chance of showers in the mountains Tuesday.

Winds Tuesday will be offshore allowing temperatures to warm to
the upper 80s to lower 90s from southern New Hampshire to much of
the midcoast area of Maine. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s
across the region so air will still feel a bit muggy.

Overnight lows Tuesday night will drop to mid to upper 50s in
mountains to the low to mid 60s southern and coastal areas with mostly
clear skies.  Patchy fog is again expected.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak ridge of high pressure settles over the area Wednesday with
dry conditions except maybe widely scattered convection restircted
to the mountains. On Thursday a cold front moves through the
region setting off showers and thunderstorms.

The big concern will be whether a much needed rainfall develops
over the weekend. Models differ signficantly on handling of a
developing low pressure system moving east from the plains and
into the Ohio valley and Eastern Great Lakes toward the weekend.
The EURO clearly brings system much further north with signficant
rain that would move into the region Saturday and through the
weekend. The other models are much further south with the system and
keep the rains to our south. For now will stick with the
superblend guidance which is a hedge of presenting a chance of the
rain across the entire area. It should be noted the confidence is
low for the weekend forecast. Temperatures will remain mild
through the period but may be cooler over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR to ifr conditions tonight in showers and
thunderstorms...and fog after midnight. VFR conditions Tuesday
after any morning fog. Patchy fog possible again Tuesday night.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Wednesday. A cold front
crosses the area Thursday with MVFR conditions in scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR conditions return Friday. An
area of low pressure passing south of the area Saturday may lower
conditions depending on the northern extent of the system.
&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas expected to be below SCA criteria
through Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms and fog may
limit visibility overnight tonight.

Long Term...Conditions to remain below SCA criteria through the
outlook period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jensenius
NEAR TERM...Jensenius
SHORT TERM...Jensenius
LONG TERM...Marine




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