Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 300920
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
220 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER THE AREA PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DESERT AND MOUNTAIN/
FOOTHILL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PERSIST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER UTAH BROUGHT ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR MONDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
CALIFORNIA MORE EASTERLY AND REDUCING...BUT NOT ELIMINATING...THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROP DOWN THE LEE
SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SHORT-WAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACK OF THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO ELONGATE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
OVER CALIFORNIA BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND ADVECT MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE STATE. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION NMM MODEL HAS MEASURABLE QPF NOT ONLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN
DESERT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ALSO OVER THE TEMBLORS AND
THE DIABLO RANGE. ACCORDINGLY HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

THE NAM-12 FORECASTS 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO WARM TO 28 C THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY THESE TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 105-109 DEGREES AND THE NAM-12 DOES HAVE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY AS HIGH AS 42
C /108 F/.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE WEAKENING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION WHILE KEEPING A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS FORECAST THE FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY. WHILE THIS MIGHT REDUCE THE
INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT NEXT SUNDAY
OR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
BETWEEN 19Z TODAY AND 04Z WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JUNE 30 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-30      112:1891     68:1982     79:2013     53:1970
KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:2013     51:1956

KBFL 06-30      111:1950     78:1997     82:2009     44:1907
KBFL 07-01      115:1950     83:1911     81:2013     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     83:2013     51:1913

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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