Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 311305
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
435 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND AND ANCHOR ITSELF OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...AREAS OF NIGHT
AND MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MANY SJ VLY RESIDENTS WILL AWAKEN TO FOG THIS
MORNING...NOT AT ALL ATYPICAL FOR WINTER AND...FOR THAT MATTER...
MUCH OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS. IN FACT...FOG WILL BE A BIG PART OF
THE WEATHER PICTURE FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH AND EVERY
NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE CA
COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN STATE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT MEANS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS
WILL STILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE SIERRA CREST AND
MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BUT THESE CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KERN COUNTY...THIS JANUARY HAS BEEN RATHER
DEFICIENT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. IN
FRESNO...JANUARY 2015 WILL END UP AS THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON
RECORD...AND RECORDS DATE ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE LATE 19TH CENTURY.
DETAILS OF THE RANKINGS ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR DROUGHT
STRICKEN CA...BUT DO NOT HOLD YOUR BREATH. ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS
SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS INLAND TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. DURING THIS
TIME...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CA COAST...BUT IT WILL
ALSO BE BUMPING UP AGAINST A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SO
WHILE THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE EASY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO
NORTHERN CA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT MIGHT JUST AS EASILY
STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WET WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT VENTURE ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MERCED COUNTY AND MARIPOSA COUNTY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. WE
ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME WIGGLE ROOM WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS FRESNO COUNTY FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS. EVEN IN THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA...WHATEVER PRECIP
FALLS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SO
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WIN OUT AND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL END
UP DYING A SAD DEATH AT OUR NORTHERN DOOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN NORMAL DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THE AFTERNOONS WILL BE BALMY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS...WITH SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES. IN THE SJ VLY...MORNING FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 60S. MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE RELATIVELY COOLER THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR ON DAYS 6 AND 7 DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY.

                  DRIEST JANUARYS ON RECORD IN FRESNO

                         1. 1948   TRACE
                         2. 1976   0.04 INCHES
                         3. 1928   0.08 INCHES
                         4. 1991   0.13 INCHES
                         5. 1984   0.15 INCHES
                         6. 1947   0.20 INCHES
                         7. 2015   0.21 INCHES

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20Z
SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR IN MOST AREAS BY 22Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR IN
FOG WILL REDEVELOP BY 06Z SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY JANUARY 31 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES.  FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-31       75:1984     39:1969     55:1963     26:1949
KFAT 02-01       73:1991     43:1939     54:1905     25:1950
KFAT 02-02       74:1928     44:1903     57:1907     26:1950

KBFL 01-31       82:1984     45:1969     57:1963     23:1902
KBFL 02-01       76:1928     45:1965     55:1963     24:1902
KBFL 02-02       80:1928     44:1971     61:1958     23:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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