Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 302133
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
233 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016
A low pressure system moving east of the area today will provide for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms near the Sierra Crest. Otherwise
dry weather will prevail over the area through Friday as a strong
ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the state. Temperatures
will average well above normal for the week.
A ridge of high pressure is moving into California today and will
strengthen through the week. This will bring very warm
temperatures and dry conditions to the region. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early
evening over the Sierra, but by Tuesday, the ridge is expected to
suppress convection each day through Friday. There will likely be
a few cumulus buildups, but the chance of any showers or
thunderstorms is only about 10 percent over the highest
As the ridge builds, high temperatures on Tuesday will warm to near
100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills, and desert
areas. Temperatures will continue to edge upward Wednesday through
Friday with models indicating 850 MB temperatures between 24 and
26 DEG C over the San Joaquin Valley. This corresponds to
widespread triple digit heat, with highs up to 105 degrees.
Friday looks like it will be the warmest day, with a few areas as
warm as 107. There will be some relief from the heat at night as
overnight lows will be mainly in the 60s.
The ridge axis shifts east of California on Friday as an upper
low approaches the from the southwest. Models are in fairly good
agreement with this upper low approaching the coast next Saturday
and across central California Sunday. The moisture associated with
the low appears to be mainly at or above 500 MB, so any chance of
precipitation will be confined to the Sierra Nevada next weekend
in the form of showers and thunderstorms. However, this system
will bring a slightly cooler airmass to the region and bringing
some relief from the triple digit temperatures by next Sunday.
Local MVFR ceilings are possible in isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra through 04z
Tuesday. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday, May 31 2016... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern... Kings and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.