Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 211236
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
436 AM PST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures
can be expected across the central California interior through
the holiday weekend. Patchy fog is possible in the San Joaquin
Valley during the late night and morning hours each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level high pressure ridge along the west coast
continues to control the weather across our area with generally
dry and mild conditions. The upper ridge is steering a fetch of
mid and high level moisture across the region, creating a
scattered to broken cloud deck overhead. The cloud cover is
expected to limit the extent of fog development across the San
Joaquin Valley, but we can still look for some patchy fog through
the morning hours.

Models handle the upper ridge similarly through the end of this
week. The ridge, anchored near Baja, is progged to amplify
slightly ahead of a developing northeast Pacific trough, then the
ridge flattens by Thanksgiving Day as shortwave energy tracks
through the Pacific Northwest. Underneath this high pressure ridge,
our temperatures will continue to warm, and afternoon highs will
be in record territory on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

A more significant trough digging southward from the northeast
Pacific will continue to suppress the ridge and shift it eastward
through the end of the weekend. This will bring lower temperatures
through the weekend but afternoon highs will still end up around
6-12 degrees above climo during the period. Patchy fog in the
morning and hazy afternoon skies can still be expected in the San
Joaquin Valley from today through the weekend under the influence
of the upper ridge.

Model solutions diverge for early next week with timing, strength
and trajectory of the approaching trough, but there is enough
agreement to have a slight chance of precipitation near Yosemite
by Sunday and from Fresno County northward on Monday as the
trough at least clips our area. We should see temperatures
lowering to near normal by Monday along with gusty winds as the
trough moves through the region.



                      RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
                  ------------------------------
                     FRESNO          BAKERSFIELD
    Nov 22nd         77/1890           80/1945
    Nov 23rd         78/1932           82/2015

&&

.AVIATION...
Local IFR conditions in fog across the San Joaquin Valley in the
morning until 18Z Tuesday; otherwise MVFR due to haze. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Tuesday November 21 2017... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kings and Merced Counties.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...MV
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford



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