Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 040335
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
835 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LABOR DAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
COAST THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW JUST WEST OF
THE OREGON/WASHINGTON BORDER. THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED THE MARINE
LAYER TO DEEPEN TO OVER 3000 FEET AT FORT ORD...AND MARINE AIR
SPILLING THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE TEMBLORS AND DIABLO
RANGE HAVE RESULTED IN GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH BELOW THESE FAVORED
PASSES INCLUDING PACHECO PASS.

WITH COOL AIR PUSHING INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...TEMPERATURES
WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY TODAY
WERE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. BOTH BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO WERE 6
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRESNO HAD A HIGH OF 88 DEGREES /NORMAL IS
94/...AND BAKERSFIELD WAS A DEGREE COOLER AT 87. /NORMAL IS 93/. AS
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY WITH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE...THIS IS MY LAST AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. AFTER
ALMOST 20 YEARS AT WFO SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-HANFORD...AND 36 YEARS
TOTAL CIVIL AND MILITARY SERVICE...THE TIME HAS COME TO MOVE ON TO
THE NEXT STAGE OF MY LIFE. I WISH ALL THE BEST TO MY COLLEAGUES AT
WFO HANFORD AND NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES...TO OUR
PARTNERS IN THE MEDIA AND EMERGENCY SERVICES...AND TO ALL WHO HAVE
READ THESE DISCUSSIONS OVER THE YEARS. GARY SANGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY WSW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO
OFF THE SOCAL COAST. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL STAY IN THE 80S TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW UPSTREAM S/W ENERGY OVER HAIDA GWAII /FORMERLY
KNOWN AS THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS/. MODELS TRACK THIS WAVE
DOWN TO NORCAL ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIMITED PRECIP STAYING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE HANFORD WARNING AND FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE WITH SOME
BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
COASTAL RANGE PASSES /THE DIABLO RANGE AND THE TEMBLORS/ AND
ACROSS EASTERN KERN COUNTY INTO THE DESERT /THE TEHACHAPI PASS TO
AROUND MOJAVE AS WELL AS THE WALKER PASS/. WE WILL SEE A BIT MORE
COOLING ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SJV DROPPING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE TROUGH
EASTWARD OVER IDAHO. A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
CENCAL SUN/MON AS A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE PACNW.
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY FOR SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMING...THEN A LITTLE MORE WARMING ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE NEXT WEEK WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EPAC
AND LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES. HIGHS IN THE SJV ARE FORECAST TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO
SMOKE. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CREST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-03      111:1955     71:1912     77:2003     52:1964
KFAT 09-04      107:1988     74:1912     75:1998     51:1912
KFAT 09-05      105:1984     73:1978     73:1991     47:1887

KBFL 09-03      112:1955     78:1985     78:1998     50:1913
KBFL 09-04      109:1988     77:1936     77:1950     49:1915
KBFL 09-05      109:1904     76:1978     75:1997     49:1916
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JEB/MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...DCH
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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