Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 282300
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
222 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS CONTINUED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST AND BROUGHT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DESERT LOCATIONS OF KERN CO...WITH RADAR PICKING UP
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/VIRGA FOR MUCH OF THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS DID FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AROUND 11 AM
THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY ON THE INCREASE.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT RUN AFTER RUN TODAY ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. THE CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE CREST WILL
GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...INTO THE FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK MARGINAL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH MU CAPE
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CREST AND INTO THE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...INSULATING THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 70S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KERN CO
DESERT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD...NEARLY CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH THE UPPER FLOW VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE TROPICAL
STORM/DISTURBANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE KERN CO DESERT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 105
TO 108 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JULY TO BEGINNING OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 29 2014...NONE.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD










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