Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 300224
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
924 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Lowered dewpoints a few degrees and tweaked sky cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The MCS`s over the plains will continue to produce ci blow off
clouds across the TN Valley overnight. Whats left of TD Bonnie is now
off the coast of SC and will continue to move NE along the E coast
for the next couple of days. The TN valley will be between these two
systems along with a weak area of high pressure over the cwa. This
will keep the chc of pcpn to a minimum tonight. Thus expect mostly
clr skies and no pcpn for the rest of tonight, however it will be
mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: Except for some patchy mvfr fog between 10z and
12z, vfr conditions are expected thru the fcst period due to weak
high pressure and a fairly dry atmosphere.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
(Issued 552 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016)
 (Issued 156 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016)

On the western fringe of Tropical Depression Bonnie, dry air and
subsidence are making it difficult for showers/storms to develop and
maintain themselves across the TN Valley. Area radars have shown
isolated activity developing along a weak boundary across the area
and despite the diurnal heating raising instability above 1000 j/kg,
little lightning has been observed and showers are only able to
sustain through a few volume scans. Given the lack of strong forcing
and moisture, this trend is likely to continue through the remainder
of the afternoon and into the evening hours, though a storm or two
may develop as we continue to heat. As is typically the case, any
activity that develops will dissipate shortly after sunset. Other
than providing a weak source of lift, the boundary will only impact
the winds across the local area and expect weak northerly surface
flow continue over the next few days.

Upper level ridging will continue to build in for the end of the
Memorial Day holiday and beginning of the next work week. Memorial
Day should be fairly nice, though fairly hot, as the high pressure
builds. Although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out, confidence
is too low to increase pops any higher than 10 percent, given even
drier conditions. High temps will reach into the reach into the
upper 80s to lower 90s, but dewpoints may mix down to the lower 60s
and will keep our heat indices from climbing into the upper 90s.
Conditions will be similar on Tuesday, as the axis of the upper
ridge shifts east. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will develop
along the northern Gulf, with southerly winds returning by
Wednesday. A slightly higher chance for thunderstorms will occur
during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, as weak shortwaves develop
and move over. Still only included isolated thunderstorms, given the
uncertainty of any lift present.

A developing upper level trough will approach the forecast area late
Wednesday, as moisture increases. A weak cold front will enter the
northwest portion of the forecast area during the day on Thursday,
bringing the highest chance for rain through the period. Uncertainty
remains high as to the timing and how much thunderstorm coverage
will be realized. However, models have been consistent on bringing
the front through, with post frontal showers and thunderstorms
possible again on Friday. Will maintain the blended guidance for
now. Though forecast PW values nearing the 90th percentile for this
time of year certainly increases the confidence somewhat. Temperature
will be rather warm on Wednesday as southerly flow returns, and then
return to more seasonal norms towards the latter part of the week as
the front moves through.

73

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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