Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 092359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
559 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Although clear skies have persisted through the day, temperatures
have remained in the mid to upper 30s, thanks to the northerly winds
advecting colder and dry air into the TN Valley. The center of the
surface high will inch closer overnight, and winds will become light
by later this evening. Given the clear skies and calmer winds,
temperatures may bottom out in the upper teens across the majority
of the area. Went a degree or two below guidance, but that still may
be too warm. Wind chills won`t be as chilly tonight, as our winds
will remain light, but still expect a very cold night.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Saturday will be somewhat warmer, though not much, as the surface
high shifts to the east, and winds veer more easterly as well. The
axis of a low level ridge will shift eastward, with southerly flow
returning and 850 temps warming a few degrees. Thus, expect highs to
quickly warm above freezing by 9 am and then into lower 40s during
the afternoon. Southerly surface flow will return overnight Saturday
and will combine with increased high cloud cover to help our
temperatures near seasonal, with lows around 30.

By Sunday, a broad mid level trough will begin to shift east of the
rockies. Surface cyclogenesis will begin over the Central Plains
and winds will shift to the south across the TN Valley as the high
shifts off the east coast. Moisture will be advected northward, and
although increasing clouds are expected, highs will moderate into
the lower 50s. There may be some isolated showers across the extreme
NW, however with little lift in the area, have removed the slight
chance precip from the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The extended forecast stays in a pretty much zonal flow pattern,
however there will be a few periods of much needed rain throughout
the week. As the sfc low lifts from the Plains up into the Great
Lakes on Sunday night, the last portion of the sfc high affecting
the Southeast is pushed eastward into the Atlantic. In return,
southerly winds will pick up, cloud cover will increase, and showers
are possible ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will
move into the area Monday morning with additional rainfall, but high
temps will warm up towards 60, yep, almost 60 degrees Monday
afternoon. Overnight lows on Monday will cool down into the mid 40s.
Rain and warm temps will continue into Tuesday.

Models differ on sfc high pressure building in on Wednesday but went
with a decreasing trend in POPs throughout the day and evening hours.
The ECMWF builds in the sfc high, drying things out while the GFS
shows a more gradual drying trend. Regardless, temps will be cooler
on Wednesday with lows dropping down into the upper 20s. Cloud cover
will decrease on Thursday as a large sfc high builds into the region
and cooling temps even further. Thursday`s high will only be in the
upper 30s/lower 40s with lows in the upper 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

VFR/SKC conditions will prevail for majority of the valid TAF period,
with only a minor increase in mid/high-level cloud cover expected
tomorrow afternoon. Lgt nne sfc flow early this evening will become
lgt/vrbl by 10/03Z and remain calm thru end of the forecast period as
center of surface ridge slides ewd from the mid-MS valley into the
southern mid-Atlantic region.





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