Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 041925
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
225 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 8H TROF AXIS, POSSIBLY WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION, WAS LOCATED
FROM WRN TN THROUGH NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA. VIS/RADAR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS IN TN AND NW AL.
CU IS ALSO BUBBLING UP ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MUCH LIKE LAST
EVENING, WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF BY 00Z. THERE APPEARS TO BE
A BIT MORE MIXING TODAY WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE L90S, SO WE MAY
HAVE A BIT LESS VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE
AND PLACE IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. THE LOW CHC FOR AFTERNOON
TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND OUR
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THERE. A BACK DOOR "COLD" FRONT IS STILL
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND DROP SWWD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND MAY KEEP ISOLATED TSTMS GOING FOR A BIT LONGER. DEW POINTS DROP
INTO THE L-M60S BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY A SLIGHT DECLINE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT. IN FACT, TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE EXTENDED, THE UPPER TROF THAT MIGRATES BACK WEST THROUGH THE
GULF STATES MAY IN FACT FORM A MORE DEVELOPED CLOSED CIRCULATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 PERCENT OR LESS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW THEN MAY LIFT BACK NE INTO THE SERN U.S. AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THRU THE MID MS AND LOWER TN VALLEYS WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO BRING A MORE BONIFIED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PASS THRU THE REGION. NONETHELESS, FORECAST WILL INCLUDE LOW
TO MEDIUM CHC POPS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED...ALONG
THE MS/AL/TN BORDERS. DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND THE EXPECTED
SHORT NATURE OF THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST CIGS/VIS
FOR STORMS THAT MOVE TOWARDS THE TERMINALS. FOR TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 08Z...THEN PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT/INTENSITY OF THE
FOG SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  93  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        69  94  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      70  90  70  85 /  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  66  92  67  87 /  10  20  20  30
ALBERTVILLE   67  90  68  84 /  10  30  20  30
FORT PAYNE    65  90  67  85 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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