Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 280301 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE
T/TD/WIND FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL
HANGING ON IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE
WARM BUT WITH THE WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH...EXPECT THE TEMPS TO
START DROPPING QUICKER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 259 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
A NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A MAJOR WINTER
STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST AS IT GRADUALLY HEADS FURTHER TO THE NE. MORE CLOUDS (WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES) CONTINUED ACROSS FAR NE ALABAMA AND
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...GIVEN ANOTHER SURGE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDUAL LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE NW ALABAMA WAS SUNNY. THIS HAS HELPED WARM
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S NEAR/WEST OF I-65...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER IN WINCHESTER.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MIDWEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
NORTHERLY FLOW...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S. CLOUDS HOWEVER
WILL INCREASE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM HEADS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS RANGE...
MODEL OUTPUT VARIES REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. THE NAM/SREF WERE THE
DRIEST...FOLLOWED BY THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST. GIVEN
THIS...STAYED THE COURSE WITH LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU
AFTERNOON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE TO WIND THEM DOWN THU NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE ON SAT AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AND INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND MODERATE SHEAR. NOT ENOUGH OF THE FORMER TO INTRODUCE
THUNDER THIS GO AROUND. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TAKE THIS SYSTEM`S
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE REGION...PLACING THE AREA IN A MORE
SHOWERY RATHER THAN RAINY REGIME. A FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NW. THE ECMWF WAS THE COLDER MODEL...SHOWING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SUN NITE AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED THE MIX
(PRIMARILY RAIN) FOR THE PREDAWN OF MON...WITH FLURRIES TO START
MONDAY. IN ANY CASE...NOTABLY COLDER TO BEGIN A NEW WEEK...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MON/TUE.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.