Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 251854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
154 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

A few brief showers developed over TN and in NW AL earlier but don`t
believe anything was measurable. Based on latest satellite and
surface obs, starting to see some drier air working into NE AL and
this is causing some decreases in the CU coverage. So, based on this
removed PoPs for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. With
dewpoints running in the upper 50s to lower 60s in NE AL, nudged low
temps tonight down a degree or so from what guidance is going with.
In terms of fog potential tonight, it may take a bit longer before
fog can develop tonight but still think we will see some in the usual
areas but may not be as dense.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Weak ridging is building over the area today and the subsidence
associated with it will result in a dry forecast for the short-term.
Not much of a change is expected in the conditions for Tuesday or
Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower
60s. Winds remain below 10 mph both days but begin to shift to the
north on Wednesday in response to a surface high over the Plains
states. There isn`t much of a change in the surface conditions with
these northerly winds just yet. It won`t be until Thursday/Friday
before we see a change in temps. Think Tuesday will likely be the
last day we see fog for awhile.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

An almost stationary cold front will be stretched out from the OK/TX
area NE into the OH Valley to start Thursday. Then a trough moving
out of central Canada will drop into the Great Lakes and push this
front through the area. Some guidance continues to waver a little bit
in whether or not there will be enough lift and lingering moisture
for a few isolated showers to develop Thursday. But based on
soundings and the overall pattern have kept the forecast dry for

The cold front will finally bring some fall like weather to the TN
Valley with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the 50s
for much of the area and upper 40s for the cooler spots. We remain in
the northerly flow through the weekend and highs should remain in the
mid 70s. As we head into early next week model solutions begin to
diverge and ensembles show a good deal of spread. The 00z guidance
had a trough moving across the northern half of the CONUS with a
potentially cut-off low over the area. However, it appears that the
12z guidance keeps the trough to the north but builds a ridge over
the area for next week. So, due to the uncertainty kept the forecast
dry and started to nudge temps up as winds begin to shift to the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

High pressure over the OH Valley continues to control the weather
over the TN Valley. VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF
period with cigs at or above 3,500 ft. An isolated shra/tsra is
possible in NW AL and in TN this afternoon but probs are too low to
include in TAFs. Tonight patchy fog is possible and could see brief
periods at MSL where vsbys drop below 1 mile, as has been the case
for the past few mornings. Winds remain light and variable through
the period.




NEAR TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...Stumpf

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