Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 262021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 19Z THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS WAS
STARTING TO ENTER NW ALABAMA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP HAS FALLEN OUT OF THESE
SHOWERS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IT MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR/HIRES GUIDANCE ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF NORTHERN ALABAMA BY LATE EVENING. A
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH TEMPS AROUND 40
DEGREES...COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
TO FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES OF LATE WE
HAVE STARTED TO ENTER THE GROWING SEASON AND ANY TYPE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WOULD WARRANT SOME SORT OF FREEZE PRODUCT. HOWEVER...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE DECIDED HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FREEZE PRODUCT AT THIS TIME AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING.

BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE HANDLING OF A
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE QUICKER OF THE MODELS IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM INTO THE NE US AND
BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND BRINGING RAIN IN LATER ON MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE RATHER ZONAL FLOW.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...CDFNT EXTENDED FROM THE OHX AREA THRU NERN MS AND
INTO SERN AR. ATTM NOT MUCH PCPN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...HOWEVER SHOULD
SEE A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN AS THE CDFNT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO CAN EXPECT SOME -SHRA BEHIND THE CDFNT AS WELL.
THE CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS KMSL ARND 21Z AND KHSV BY 23Z. THERE IS
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA BUT ALL LIGHTNING DATA/INSTABILITY
ATTM CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THUS WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS
-SHRA FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 22Z. AFTER 22Z EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    39  54  33  50 /  70  20  10  20
SHOALS        37  54  32  51 /  60  20  10  20
VINEMONT      38  51  32  49 /  70  20  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  35  49  29  46 /  70  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   40  52  33  48 /  80  20  10  20
FORT PAYNE    39  52  31  49 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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