Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031904
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
304 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND
TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA.
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR
AREA TODAY.

HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH
READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST
TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL
PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP
WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN
BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND
DCAPE UP TO 1100.

OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST
PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP
TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE
IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER.

WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS
SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE
WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W.

FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD
SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS
WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED
COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS.
ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR.

AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING.
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING
MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND
NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR
BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF
AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN
OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY
3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS
SEVERELY LIMITED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST
WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS
SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND
WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS
MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR



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