Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 172338
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
638 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue Wednesday ahead of a cold front
which will drop south through the Carolinas around midday
Wednesday. Cooler and drier high pressure will follow on
Thursday. Low pressure moving up from the Gulf Coast will drag a
front across the area on Friday. High pressure will build in on
Saturday before another system brings unsettled weather for
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Though it took most of the day the fog and
stratus has finally  mixed out over inland zones. The resulting
insolation has made the front jump inland in a weakening state. The
remainder of the period will feature a gradually increasing
southwesterly flow keeping temperatures very mild and also importing
plenty of clouds into the area. The deepest moisture and mid level
ascent both remain to our north and so will rain chances in all
likelihood. Some marine fog/stratus may develop and if so could
affect mainly just eastern Brunswick and southern New Hanover
counties if the persistent SREF is to be believed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Another fairly cloudy and unseasonably mild day
on Wednesday as a backdoor cold front sinking through is hard
pressed to generate meaningful rain chances as the dynamics for lift
slide off the coast to our north. High temps will fairly quickly
rise into the low 70s and may tumble just a few degrees later in the
day as the cold air advection gets underway. The cold advection will
only be in the relative sense as Wednesday night`s lows in the mid
40s is still a solid 10 degrees above climo. Thursday will continue
the trend of mild weather as high pressure slides by just to our
north. Later in the day and moreso Thursday night as the pattern
progresses there should be marked increase in moisture return

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Amplified mid level pattern during the period
will result in an extended bout of active weather. Period begins
with occluded front moving into the region, spreading showers over
the forecast area. The 5h low associated with the surface system
lifts north from the midwest into central Canada over the weekend as
weak 5h ridge briefly builds north from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
into Sat. Ridge axis quickly slides east and by Sun morning deep
southwest flow is spreading abundant moisture over the region.
Showers and thunderstorms develop Sun and continue into Mon as
highly amplified 5h low moves across the southern CONUS, ejecting
shortwaves over the southeast ahead of it. Associated 5h trough
begins to acquire negative tile as it pushes a cold front into the
region Mon, setting what could be the stage for some stronger storms
early next week. Still too early to say when or how strong but
pattern certainly appears favorable. Period ends dry with mid level
ridge building back from the north. Temperatures will be above to
well above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 23Z...Surface warm front has moved north of the terminals
and lifting low clouds north of the area as well. Satellite
imagery shows some partial clearing across the southwest and
southeast. Main issue for this forecast period will be a
southwesterly low level jet increasing to 25-35 knots at about
1500 feet AGL this evening, have kept the mention of low level
wind shear to the forecasts for Florence, Wilmington, and
Lumberton. Another concern is Sea fog potentially developing
off the coast but as of now it is expected to remain just
offshore of the two Myrtle Beach airports, however a slight
shift in the wind direction could bring this fog onshore.

Not much change from previous discussion regarding stronger
westerly winds in advance of a cold front mixing down to the
surface during the morning on Wednesday with wind gusts in the
18-25 knot range possible. Some light showers from a mid-cloud
deck could also sweep across the area near the front, best
potential in the Wilmington area. Will keep mention of prob in
the tafs for the other terminals with a tempo for KILM and MVFR
conditions in ceilings, VFR throughout across all other
terminals.

Extended Outlook...IFR ceilings are possible in low stratus
Friday and Friday night as the next warm front and rainfall
event develops. IFR ceilings could continue into Saturday
morning as models indicate a cool air wedge possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Light southwesterly flow and manageable seas
expected through the period implying fairly ideal boating
conditions. However a less certain factor will be the possibility of
sea fog. Earlier guidance displayed rather harmonious agreement in
its development which given the very high dewpoints encroaching upon
the environment looked pretty plausible. Now there is some discord
however regarding the timing and areal coverage with the latest RUC
surprising abandoning its formation altogether. Have scaled back
slightly in deference to these optimistic suggestions and have
for now dropped the `dense` wording but still show sea fog
developing this evening and overnight especially SC waters (the
latter point being an SREF idea whereas the WRF was more
widespread).

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday... Prefrontal flow regime will see a tightening
gradient Wednesday as front approaches from the northwest. Low level
jetting could lead to some gustiness but the stabilizing effects of
the cooler SSTs will act to inhibit vertical mixing and for now no
advisory or even headlines are anticipated. FROPA will bring a sharp
veer and may represent a more likely time for some wind gusts though
this window appears narrow as the gradient really collapses. A
fairly weak high builds overhead on Thursday keeping wind and seas
quite minimal though the former will veer most of the day as the
high moves east.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Occluded front will move across the waters
during Fri with southerly flow increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Weak gradient persists into Fri night and Sat with
winds veering from offshore Fri night to northerly Sat. Speeds
drop under 10 kt by Sat morning and remain under 10 kt into Sun.
Front stalled south of the area into Sun lifts back north
during the day with southerly flow developing and increasing to
near 20 kt by the end of the period. Seas 2 to 3 ft for much of
the period will start to build late Sun in response to
increasing southerly flow. Seas could exceed 6 ft after midnight
and headlines may be required early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC
MARINE...



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