Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 040248
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THE NEXT IN THIS PARADE OF
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BE SKIRTING THE FORECAST AREA TO THE W
AND N OVERNIGHT/SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD/AROUND DAYBREAK.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...WE
MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH STRATUS TONIGHT AS WE HAVE THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HOT BUT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WKND.

EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THIS WKND...BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...TO PRODUCE A HOT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES...WITH UPR 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
VERY DRY-MID LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EVEN
AS AFTN CU BUILDS...SO BUILDUP WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY SHALLOW.
THE SEA BREEZE...AND ESPECIALLY PIEDMONT TROUGH...MAY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART FIREWORKS FESTIVITIES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 70S WELL INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE TN
VLY...AND WHILE THIS WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF OUR AREA...SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER
PVA. THIS WILL CREATE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER AFTN CONVECTION
CHANCES...ALONG WITH KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...WITH MOST
PLACES HOVERING 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90. CONTINUING HEIGHT
FALLS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY PERSIST CONVECTION WELL INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DECREASED COVERAGE...AND MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AROUND 70...SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL HAVE SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD KEEP THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY BY JULY STANDARDS. MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
JUST TO OUR WEST ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE WHILE AT THE SURFACE
A PIEDMONT TROUGH WORKS IN TANDEM WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE CONVECTION. DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD BRING
MORE CLOUDS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NET
EFFECT OF THE CLOUDINESS WILL BE TO TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY
WHILE BOLSTERING NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE MID LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO A
REGIME WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND SURFACE MESOSCALE
FEATURES ACT AS THE LONE CONVECTIVE INITIATORS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH VCSH LATE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS THE LAST BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE...NO LONGER AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
FEW/SCT LOW CIGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD CREATE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT. WILL
MENTION SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. ON SATURDAY...VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
ISOLATED VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 6 AM AND FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS TIL 10 AM.
NOCTURNAL JETTING...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT...WILL BRING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DIRECTION WILL BE SW. THE PERSISTENT FLOW AND ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN 4 TO 6 FT SEAS...AND UP TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DIRECTION WILL VARY LITTLE...SPEEDS SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT...HIGHEST LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
10- 15 KT SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT WEAKER.
ADDITIONALLY...NEAR SHORE WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE BEFORE RETURNING TO A SW
DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FT BOTH
DAYS...WITH A SW WIND WAVE PREDOMINANT IN THE SPECTRUM

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...INLAND SURFACE TROUGHINESS APPEARS RATHER
WEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY LIKELY WASHED OUT IN PART BY THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED TO OUR NORTH
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT NOT ONLY
DUE TO THE DOWN TICK IN WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE DECREASED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FETCH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL


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