Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 262322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
722 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

High pressure offshore will bring a warming and drying trend
into the weekend. A weakening and lingering cold front will
bring a chance of showers or a thunderstorm late Thursday and
Friday, with temperatures remaining warm. Inland areas may see
temperatures of 90 degrees or higher Friday and Saturday
afternoon. A stronger frontal system will bring a chance of
rain early next week followed by high pressure for the middle of
next week.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...A fair and mild overnight period with
increasing southwest winds in the low-levels slated, as an H6-H7
ridge slips offshore this evening and bolsters surface high pressure
there. Southwest winds up 25 KT as low as 500 feet AGL expected
after midnight, should put the kabash of fog and mist development
despite the damp ground and clearing skies. Local RH time-height
plots show moisture values appear too low to support widespread
stratus. As a result a mostly clear overnight period is anticipated.
The low-level and coastal breezes will spell a very mild night with
elevated minimums of almost 70 at beaches, with low and middle 60s
inland. This is about 10 degrees above normal for late April. Warm
air advection will bring maximums Thursday well into the 80s
Thursday afternoon with a mild start and even upper 80s well inland
under plenty sunshine minutes. As approaching surface trough
accompanied by a slight deepening of moisture will bring a few
showers near I-95 late in the day but likely still too dry aloft for
sea breeze activity closer to the coast. The land vs SST
differential will drive a hearty sea breeze circulation, so gusts to
25 mph along the coast in the afternoon is bound to occur, and
though less, gusty inland as well.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...Cold front just reaching into the
western Carolinas Thurs eve basically gets weakened by ridge
both at the sfc and aloft which builds back westward keeping a
stronghold over the southeast through Fri and into the weekend.
Initially the gradient will tighten between Bermuda High
pushing in from the east and cold front approaching from the
west, producing breezy conditions. Looks like any convection
will weaken as it makes it into central Carolinas, but will
include a slight chc of convection into Thurs night. This should
move east and fade away by morning but soundings show enough
instability to support mainly iso convection into Fri with best
chc north and west of I95 later Fri aftn.

Strengthening upper ridge will produce height rises up 591 dam
by Fri night. Warm and moist southerly flow combined with height
rises and increased subsidence and dry air aloft will produce
temps well above normal. Expect temps both Thurs and Fri night
well into the 60s to near 70 many places especially along the
coast. High temps Fri will reach well into the 80s with many
spots reaching 90 inland. Overall very warm period.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface and mid level high pressure just off
the east coast will maintain deep southerly flow Saturday and
Sunday. However, subsidence on the periphery of the ridge aloft
should keep diurnal convection to a minimum. Cannot rule out an
isolated sea breeze shower but any activity would be short lived and
very isolated. Temperatures will be above to well above normal.

Surface and mid level ridge start to weaken and drift east Mon,
allowing a cold front into the region. Front moves across the area
Mon night, likely accompanied by some convection.  Although the
parent low will be over the Great Lakes (along with the bulk of the
dynamics) there are still at least a few signals pointing to some
potential for strong/severe storms ahead of the front. Strong low
level jet will be in place along with modest divergence aloft and
potential for PVA as shortwaves rotate around the base of the
trough. Confidence is low at this point as timing and instability
remain in question but is something to keep an eye on.

Front moves off the coast early Tue with high pressure building in
from the west during the day then shifting overhead Tue night before
moving offshore Wed. Flow aloft will remain west to southwest Tue
and Wed as dry air and subsidence help dry the region out with
temperatures running near climo.


As of 00Z...High confidence VFR through the TAF valid period for
all terminals.

Extended outlook...Isolated MVFR from spotty showers Thursday
night and early FRI. Thereafter, VFR through Sunday. Periods of
IFR/MVFR in showers/stratus Monday.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...A moderate chop will develop tonight
as SW winds increase to 15 KT with a few higher gusts likely.
This as high pressure becomes stronger offshore. Seas of 4 feet
can be expected overnight in a mix of SE waves 2-3 feet every
8-9 seconds and 1-2 foot wind-waves every 4-5 seconds from SSW
to NNE. No showers or TSTMS expected overnight or Thursday over
the 0-20 NM waters. Thursday will remain a bit bumpy due to
15-20 KT S-SW winds and seas round 4 feet, a cautionary headline
cannot be ruled out if seas offshore reach 5 feet. Dominant
wave periods will transition from 8-9 seconds to 4-5 seconds
late tonight, persisting through Thursday as winds remain
elevated. A strong sea breeze Thursday afternoon will bring
isolated gusts in excess of 20 KT inshore in the mid afternoon
to early eve.

As of 300 PM Wednesday...Cold front just reaching into the
western Carolinas Thurs eve basically gets weakened by ridge
both at the sfc and aloft which builds back westward keeping a
stronghold over the southeast through Fri and into the weekend.
Southerly flow at 10 to 15 kt will increase late Thurs as
gradient tightens between high pressure to the east and cold
front approaching from the west. These S-SW push up to 20 kts
will drive seas up to 4 to 5 ft and possible a few 6 fters in
outer waters probably just beyond our local waters after
midnight Thurs night into early Fri. Seas will subside through
Fri down to 2 to 4 ft by evening and remaining 4 ft or less into
Sat morning. Seas will spike up in afternoon sea breeze and
back a little near shore Fri aftn.

As of 300 PM Wednesday...Bermuda High will maintain southwest
flow through much of the period. Speeds 10 to 15 kt Sat into Sun
start to increase late Sun as gradient becomes more defined.
Cold front approaches from the west as the surface high shifts
east. Speeds increase to 15 to 20 kt Sun night and peak at 20 to
25 kt Mon with low level jet approaching 40 kt. Seas around 3
ft Sat into Sun will start building Sun night, approaching 8 ft
on Mon. Headlines may be required as early as Sun evening.





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