Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 292351
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEK THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH
OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS BRINGING A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
ONSHORE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM DRY AIR ALOFT. DESPITE
INLAND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WAS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO
CONDITIONS ALOFT...AND SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED. OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE HAVE HAD LIMITED SUCCESS MAKING IT TOWARD
SHORE...AND MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT
AS WELL.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE A BIT
HIGHER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL. WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FEET 12-15 KT CURRENTLY SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 10 KT BY 3-4 AM...AND I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND EAST OF I-95. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...STILL ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 64-68 INLAND
TO AROUND 70 ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SOME MIXED SIGNALS IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE AND ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO OUR WEST...
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY BLEED INTO PRIMARILY WESTERN MOST COMMUNITIES
AND WILL SHOW HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOUT SEASONABLE...INLAND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S. SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...MID
AND UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS
THE MID LEVELS WILL FEATURE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
MEANDERING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE A MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY
CREEPS SOUTH. AFTER A SLOW START MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SURGE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH
THE MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN
ORDER. THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCUR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT BASICALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA AS DOES THE MID
LEVEL FEATURES AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALBEIT AT
LOWER VALUES DUE TO A BRIEF INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE VERY WARM EARLY...COURTESY OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN WALKING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AS THE
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT AND JUST A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE EVEN WITH
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OVERNIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY WITH MODELS WANTING TO
INTRODUCE STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT THIS TIME
WITH NEAR IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY CEILINGS BY MORNING
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE STUBBORN SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS RATHER
SUBDUED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK
RESULTANT BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA. FROM THIS POSITION THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVER A 2000
MILE LONG EASTERLY FETCH ENDING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
LIGHT...BUT WE ARE STILL RECEIVING A 4 FOOT 8-9 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL OFFSHORE...DAMPING DOWN BY ABOUT 1-2 FEET AS IT ENTERS THE
SHALLOWER WATER NEARSHORE. RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 10-40
MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THESE HAVE SO FAR DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED SHORE...AND MOST (BUT NOT ALL) MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEABREEZE WILL HELP TO ENHANCE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ESE TO SE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RETREAT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. SWELL ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AND SEAS BY THEN MAY SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE AND THIS SEEMS A BIT GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE WEAK
PRESSURE FIELDS. A FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS VERY STABLE WITH 2-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL



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