Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 251838
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FINALLY WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE 06
UTC RUN BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHED IN THE 12 UTC NAM AND GFS
RUNS.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WITH WINDS INCREASING
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH THE SPEED MAX BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND LOWER DEW-POINTS FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD...FINALLY REACHING THE CAROLINAS MONDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING WITH
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF MARINE INFLUENCE
ALONG THE BEACHES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WON`T MOVE OFFSHORE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY AND ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN FACT IT IS DISTRESSING HOW DRY THE AIR BECOMES AROUND
900 MB (~3000 FT AGL) AS THERE IS THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL THIS
BONE-DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS -10C TO -20C GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE
DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. AS IT IS NOW I HAVE DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO
FALL TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY AND AS LOW AS 40 ON MONDAY...
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
FORTUNATELY LIGHT WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LIKELY TOUCHING/EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES. CLOSER TO THE COAST MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP HIGHS A
BIT COOLER. RECENT MOS BIAS STATISTICS SHOWS GFS MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH HIGHS...AND A DEGREE OR LESS TOO
WARM WITH LOWS. THE NAM MOS HAS LESS RECENT ACCUMULATED BIAS
EXCEPT AT LBT AND CRE WHERE ITS HIGHS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARM
RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
HOLD TRUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALTHOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL BE BOTH
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE WAY WILL THEN BE
PAVED THURSDAY FOR MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND A VERY
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE MAY CROSS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING.
THE LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS RATHER BAGGY AND
DISORGANIZED AND THIS MOISTURE WHILE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE MAY
LINGER OVER PART OF THE AREA FOR A WHILE...WAITING FOR A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY TO KICK IT OFFSHORE. THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN MORNING. THE 00Z ECWMF IS A NEW AND
RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING VERY DEEP AND LARGE CUTOFF
OVER TN...WHICH WOULD KEEP LOCAL WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR POSSIBLY MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THE PREFRONTAL RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE
PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER THIS HIGHS IN THE 80S. THURSDAYS HIGH MAY
BE HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT STILL A
BIT ABOVE CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. AGAIN THIS MAY BE MODIFIED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN AS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS...SW-NW AT TIMES...EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE S-SW WINDS DUE TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT KCRE/KMYR.
SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THIS EVENING SOME SCT
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AND A WIND-SHIFT TO THE W-NW.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT 14-15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
SLOWLY BECOME WEST AFTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE ABATES
AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SEAS OF 1
FOOT WILL INCREASE TO 2 FEET JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING...THEN
OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH AS
HIGH AS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL STEADILY DECREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD THEN VEER CLOCKWISE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SMALL WIND CHOP INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING UP ON TOP OF A WEAK
SOUTHEAST SWELL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL HELP KEEP WIND SPEEDS QUITE TAME.
AS SUCH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NO LARGE THAN 2 FT. AS BOTH RETREAT AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO WESTERLY  BUT NO INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ANTICIPATED. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. THE DECELERATING FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HOW MUCH FARTHER IT PROGRESSES FROM THERE
IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR




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