Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 260530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1230 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE DIMINISHED AS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S THIS EVENING. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT
A GOOD CLIP WHILE ADDITIONAL SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BASICALLY
UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD. IT WILL CONSIST OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STRONG
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEA-BOARD AND WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROFFING ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE U.S. WHICH INCLUDES THE
ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY WHEREBY OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING SATURDAY. WITH LOW MEAN RHS THRU THE
ATM COLUMN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA BY SATURDAY...YIELDS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRRUS/CIRRUS STRATUS
OVERSPREADING THE FA. AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER INCREASES THRU
THE ATM COLUMN...MID LEVEL AND POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE FA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.

POP CHANCES FOR RW-/R- WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ISOLATED
COVERAGE SAT EVENING...TO LOW CHANCE DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUN
HOURS. VERY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IE. MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS...WILL
PUSH FROM SW-NE AND INTERACT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH TO PRODUCE THE MENTIONED POPS. JUST NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FURTHER AID PCPN FORMATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE TOP PLAYERS FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS GUIDANCE.
POTENTIAL BUST THOUGH...WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE NEARLY 1 TO 2
CATEGORIES OFF FROM ONE ANOTHER THRUOUT THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
WILL FEATURE A VERY BROAD AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE A WAVERING FRONT CUTTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPED OF THE ROCKIES. POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND HAVE INCREMENTALLY
INCREASED POPS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES TUESDAY
PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK OR REMOVED
POPS COMPLETELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEW AIR MASS IS
QUITE MODIFIED BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA BUT STILL WILL
REPRESENT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...MOST NOTABLY
DAYTIME HIGHS. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY AS A
NEW SYSTEM MAY BE TAKING SHAPE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP
SHALLOW FOG IN SPOTS. SO FAR THE ILM AIRPORT HAS DEALT WITH THIS THE
MOST...AND VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT NE/E WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

RECENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
N-NE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS 1 WOULD EXPECT...A RELAXED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND YIELD WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS. A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH...HOWEVER WILL PROVIDE THE MOST COMMON
DIRECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT/OCCUR ACROSS THE WATERS IN THIS
TIME FRAME. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL START OUT AT 2 TO 3 FT ON FRIDAY
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS. FOR SATURDAY...A DECENT 2 TO
4 FOOT NE-E GROUND SWELL WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AT 14+ SECONDS...
WILL AFFECT AND DOMINATE THE LOCAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A RATHER LAZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WATERS ARE CAUGHT
BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. SPEEDS SHOULD HOVER AROUND TEN KNOTS. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS
PUSHED THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL AS THERE IS MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT A RANGE OF
10-15 KNOTS. OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE TRANQUIL WITH 2-3
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SRP/TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/TRA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.