Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 270228
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1028 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers Tuesday followed
by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week.
Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into the
weekend with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...A few showers along a weak trough were
moving by to our N this eve. Some of the associated upstream
cloudiness is expected to reach the Forecast Area through the
remainder of the night. Any measurable rain is expected to
remain N of the area and although POPS were tweaked higher, they
remain below threshold for the overnight hours.

Dewpoints did recover with the arrival of sunset, but were still
in the lower to mid 60s. Given the light winds, and despite the
later arrival of at least scattered clouds, temps will cool to
the mid and upper 60s overnight with a few lower 60s inland.

A cold front on Tue, driven by a healthy upper trough and vort
max, will approach from the northwest. The upper system appears
likely to be the main rain-maker since deep moisture recovery
will not have time to occur. This may mean that NC deserves some
slightly higher POPs than SC but for now prefer a broad-brush
30 area-wide since measurable rainfall may not happen at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Any lingering showers and thunderstorms
will be ending as the a shortwave exits to the northeast Tue
night. The shortwave drags a secondary cold front across the
area early Wed with a cooler and much drier air mass building in
for the middle of the week. Precipitable water values drop
under 0.75 inches Wed and a mid level subsidence inversion
develops as the 5h trough exits and weak 5h ridge starts to
build. High pressure northwest of the area early Wed shifts
east, passing north of the area Wed evening. The high ends up
off the coast as the period ends with weak return flow just
starting to develop. Subsidence and the abundance of dry air
will ensure the period is dry once any lingering activity Tue
evening comes to an end. Temperatures will run below climo
through the period with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in
the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the
return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high
pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will
increase from the mid to upper 80s Thursday to the upper 80s to
lower 90s for the remainder of the period. Lows will increase
from upper 60s to lower 70s thursday night to the low to mid 70s
for the remainder of the period. Thursday should be the last
dry day with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR through Tue morning. A reinforcing cold front
bolstered by a mid-level shortwave will bring isolated to
scattered showers Tue afternoon, exiting off the coast Tue eve.
There is a very low probability for brief MVFR visibility in
showers during this time. Wind speeds will be under 10 kt
through the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms
Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...Light winds across the waters through the
night and on Tue, less than 10 kt. The direction is expected to
back from easterly to NE during the night. Seas will be 2 ft
through the period. Just as a light onshore flow seemingly
starts getting established early Tue afternoon, another cold
front will push through, turning winds to N or NE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Northerly flow will develop early in the
period as high pressure to the northwest builds in following the
passage of cold front. Gradient behind the front is not
particularly tight and speeds will remain under 15 kt Tue night.
Surface high is quick to move east Wed and Wed night. Northeast
flow Tue night into Wed shifts to easterly Wed evening and
eventually southeast by the end of the period. Speeds Wed and
Wed night will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be around 2 ft
through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...SE winds around 10 kt will become S to SW by
Thursday night and continue through Saturday though speeds could top
out around 15 kt by Saturday.  Seas around 2 feet are expected most
of the period with a few 3 footers possible Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...RJD



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