Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 011143
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
743 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO DAYBREAK. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST. A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL NOT BE STRONG TODAY
THE LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA FROM SENSORS ONBOARD ORBITERS
SHOW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES BEGINNING TO POOL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL INTERIOR FROM VALDOSTA TO COLUMBIA TO RALEIGH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOWEST 4-5 KFT PER
LATEST KLTX VWP SCANS. THIS COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED LOW- LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BURGAW TO WHITEVILLE
TO KINGSTREE. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND COAST...ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AT BEST. CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL
DRYING OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY RECENT WATER VAPOR MOVIES WILL TAPER
EVENING POPS...RAMPING UP SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO RE-MOISTEN. MILD MIN TEMPS EARLY MONDAY...65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE BIG STORY IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
A GOOD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. THE MOST RECENT QPF AVERAGE OF VARIOUS MODEL DATA SETS
AND WPC REASONING...SUGGEST 1-1.5 INCH TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA ADDS SUPPORT. PLENTY
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE MIX AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. MID-LEVEL DRYING LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CURTAIL SHOWER PROBABILITIES...AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE SHOWING A COOLER WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS NE SC AND SE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK DEVELOPING AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
EASTERN FLANK. THERE ARE INTERVALS OF QPF SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS
BUT IT APPEARS VERY DRY AIR WILL WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMITING
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. THE APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SCOUR
SOME MOISTURE AS WELL. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY (WHICH WERE
LOW TO BEGIN WITH) TO REPRESENT THIS TREND. THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE
WILL BE A FRONT MOVING ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TEMPERATURE TREND WILL BE COOLING BEYOND WEDNESDAY TO
SETTLE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A WARM FRONT MOVED ONSHORE OF KCRE/KMYR EARLIER THIS
MORNING WHEN WINDS WENT SSE AND SITES BECAME VFR. THE WARM FRONT WAS
STILL S OF KILM TO S OF KFLO AT TAF TIME...HOWEVER CIGS ARE SHOWING
AN IMPROVING TREND. IFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING INLAND OF THE COAST AND
N OF THE WARM FRONT N OF KFLO LOWERING TO LIFR AT KLBT. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING N IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE WERE MOVING E-NE
TOWARDS KFLO/KLBT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N TODAY. CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SE-S. SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND MID-LATE MORNING....AND INLAND IN THE EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS COULD REACHING THE COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SO NO FOG EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. PCPN MOST WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 648 AM SUNDAY...THE OCEAN IS A BIT BUMPY FOR NO HEADLINES
AROUND 4 FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AS THE SEA SPECTRUM REMAINS FULLY
TIED TO LOCAL WIND-WAVE ENERGY. TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND
HOLD AT 15 KT...PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT.
THE DOMINANT SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A UP AND DOWN NATURE
TO THE SEA SPECTRUM TODAY SO SEA SICKNESS MEDS SHOULD BE KEPT
NEARBY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY
OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN S-SW WIND...NO ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED AND SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 4 FT OR LESS MOSTLY IN SOUTH
WAVE ENERGY EVERY 5-6 SECONDS CO-MINGLED WITH 1-2 FOOT E WAVES
EVERY 9 SECONDS. RAIN AND TSTMS WILL REDUCE VSBYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND MARINERS SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALWAYS BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO W EARLY WED BUT
ONLY AROUND 10 KT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE DISTORTION NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW TO THE WIND DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A TURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO POSSIBLY HEADLINE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR



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