Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 241401
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
An area of upper level low pressure will continue moving slowly east
across the deep south today, as drier air remains in place over the
Ohio Valley. A mid-level ridge will gradually build into the area by
the middle of the week, allowing for increasing temperatures and
generally dry conditions. As a cold front moves into the region on
Thursday, chances for precipitation will increase.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A dry airmass remains in place across the area per the 12Z ILN
raob. As a result, clouds have had a tough time so far this
morning working back into our southeastern areas. This will be
the question of the day as the models continue to show a fair
amount of 850-700 mb advecting northwestward into our area
through this afternoon. Will go ahead and allow for a gradual
increase in cloud cover from the southeast and hang on to a 20
pop across our far southeast but there is some uncertainty to
this. The amount of cloud cover may also make for a tricky
temperature forecast and for now will continue to range highs
from the upper 60s southeast to the lower 70s across the west.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
By this evening, any chance for light rain will be coming to an
end, setting up a dry forecast for the rest of the short term
period. However, with wind flow aligning to southeasterly from
700mb to near the surface, an increase in mid and low level
moisture will continue, prompting a continued increase in sky
cover through the overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Things change again on Tuesday morning, as an increased amount
of warming at 5kft-10kft will likely lead to decreasing RH and a
scattering of the cloud deck, eventually mixing into a cumulus
field by afternoon. With ridging building in aloft and a switch
to SSE flow at the surface, the pattern will set up for a more
significant increase in temperatures -- reaching the middle to
upper 70s across the ILN CWA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our region will be between a departing upper level low to our
east and a s/wv and associated cold front to our west on
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected along with locally breezy
southerly winds. Temperatures should warm into the lower 80s,
which is much above normal for late April.
Embedded s/wv will rotate northeast from the southern plains to
the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. As this
occurs, aforementioned cold front will push east across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool into the 70s
given clouds and the threat for precipitation.
By Thursday night, cold front should settle off to our
east/southeast, allowing for weak high pressure to move in.
For the period Friday into Saturday, there continues to be
differences in the timing of a warm front to push through our
region. Some models keep the forecast area dry on Friday while
return moist flow on others bring at least a chance of showers
or thunderstorms back by Friday afternoon. Have kept low PoPs
on Friday, pushing south to north through the day. Best chance
for showers and thunderstorms still appears slated for Friday
night into Saturday morning as a low level jet provides the
necessary moist convergence to trigger showers and storms.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.
Mid level flow is still expected to amplify Saturday night into
Sunday as an upper level low digs east across the southern
Plains, then northeast toward the middle Mississippi River
Valley. This should eventually push the warm front north into
the southern Great Lakes. Chances for showers/storms appears low
at this time frame since the area will be warm sectored. Best
chance for showers and thunderstorms should come Sunday night or
Monday as an associated cold front eventually pushes into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Highs on Sunday will be warm,
ranging from the lower 80s northwest, to perhaps the upper 80s
southeast. Again, these readings are much above normal for late
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the day today. There will
be a gradual increase in mid and high clouds through the period
at all TAF sites, and there have also been some VFR low clouds
(around 5kft) in the Cincinnati area.
Overnight and into early Tuesday morning, low clouds will
continue to increase, and some MVFR ceilings will be possible --
mainly for KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KDAY. However, these ceilings should
scatter out by mid-morning on Tuesday.
Winds will remain out of the northeast today at around 10 knots,
gradually shifting to the east by tonight into Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible on Thursday along with
a chance of thunderstorms.