Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251152
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS LOUISVILLE BY 00Z. THE LOW WILL THEN TURN EAST AND HEAD
ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AN EAST-WEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
WARMER LOW LEVELS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT AS
RAIN. THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE IT
STILL SEEMS THAT SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE RIGHT FROM THE START. RAIN-
SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONLY
PROGRESS TO NEAR I-70 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION WILL THEN PIVOT AND WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION DOES LOOK LIKE
IT WILL LINGER LONGER OVERNIGHT AFTER THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SO
HAVE BUMPED UP AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THIS HAVE ADDED
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STARTING
TIME OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT EARLY BUT WILL BE SURE TO CATCH
ALL SNOWFALL.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF RELATIVELY MILD. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER BUT ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RISE PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTH. HOWEVER SNOW PACK IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING THERE. WHERE GROUND IS BARE TO START THE DAY...FORECAST
HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND FOR
LOW TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KILN. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OTHER AREA TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE
PELLETS NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT KDAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
PROBABILITY AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE ICE PELLETS HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW
WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK






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