Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 041802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MIDWEST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND KEEP
A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID SEE SOME
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR AND EAST OF
COLUMBUS EARLIER UNDERNEATH AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD...BUT
WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIMIT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDER A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A
CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE CYCLONICALLY
AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE 60S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SUBSEQUENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY.

WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS
MVFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD FOR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LOW MOISTURE AS NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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