Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 310001
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
801 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure east of the region will weaken tonight ahead
of a cold front. This front will cross southeast through the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday. A large area of high pressure will build in
Canada and exert its influence on our region through the end of
the week with cooler and drier conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have been pushing very slowly
southeast and have moved into the far northwest portions of our
fa. The airmass across our area is quite a bit less unstable so
expect to see an overall weakening/diminishing trend as they
continue to push southeast over the next couple of hours. This
will also be aided by the loss of the diurnal heating. This is all
backed up by the trends of the last few rounds of the hrrr. That
being said, have updated the forecast to bump up pops across our
northwestern areas in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal passage will occur during the peak heating of the day
on Wednesday and in a continued weakly sheared environment. The
amount of heating will be limited due to the amount of higher
level as/ci that comes from the convection that is expected to
accompany the front as it passes. Little if any lingering storms
will make it past the late evening and a strong area of high
pressure in Canada will usher in a welcome change in season to
more normal temperatures and much drier air.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Friday into Saturday. It will be dry with temperatures at
first a little bit below normal on Friday with temperatures
modifying to near normal on Saturday.

For the remainder of the extended, Sunday through Tuesday, quiet
weather is expected as a mid level ridge builds over the region
while a closed mid level low rotates off the Atlantic seaboard. This
"blocky" pattern will provide dry weather with a gradual warming
trend.  Highs in the 80s on Sunday will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 by Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be about 10
degrees above normal for early September. It will be great weather
to end the unofficial last weekend of summer while greeting
meteorological fall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms stretching from central Indiana into
northwest Ohio will continue to sag slowly southeast over the
next couple of hours. The airmass across our region is more stable
and as we lose the diurnal heating, expect an overall
weakening/diminishing trend in the pcpn. As a result, will just
allow for a couple hours of a tempo -shra at KDAY to account for
this through this evening.

Otherwise, expect an increase in high and mid level clouds as we
progress through the overnight hours. Winds will be light once
again but the increased cloud cover should help mitigate fog
development and will just allow for a tempo MVFR group at KLUK
later tonight.

A cold front will sag down across our area through the day on
Wednesday. The combination of this and daytime destabilization
will lead to scattered thunderstorm development through late
morning and into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...JGL/Sites
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JGL



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