Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 161812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
212 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND SETTLE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BUT IT APPEARS THAT PCPN HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A NORTHERLY DRYING WIND OVER THE REGION
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. WHERE A FEW DEGREES OF MODERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
BUMP HIGHS THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AS COOL OF A DAY IN STORE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE COMFORTABLY COOL UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S. ONE EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT WHERE THE INITIAL PUSH
OF COLD AIR WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE
ENTIRE FA SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PRETTY SOLID MVFR DECK IS HANGING IN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE DIURNAL LOOKING ON THE PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE...THINK WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS
THE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS TRYING TO HANG
ON TO SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO THERE IS SOME
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST WE WILL ACTUALLY CLEAR OFF. HAVE
THEREFORE LINGERED CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
THEN BECOMING CLEAR. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME BR/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT THIS COULD BE COUNTERED
SOMEWHAT BY SOME DRIER DEWPOINTS TRYING TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JGL





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