Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 281657
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1257 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid
conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night. High
pressure will build in Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers will continue to pass north-northeast over the cwa with
the strongest storms occasionally reaching a depth where charge
separation will initiate isolated lightning strikes.
With the cloud cover western cwa inhibiting daytime insolation and
boundary layer heating, expect showers to continue to be the rule
today with occasional lightning. Temperatures in the lower 80s
will be found with a few locations with less sky cover reaching
H5 ridge in place will not permit organized deep convection over
the region today so scattered thunderstorms remain the best
forecast with little to no chance of them becoming severe.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection may linger into the evening in eastern counties before
diminishing. Tail end of a trough swinging across the Great Lakes
later Sunday may brush by the forecast area. This will also push a
weak cold front across the region Sunday night. This may result
some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the night.
High pressure will build in Monday with a drier airmass. Did not
stray too far from MOS for temperatures except for going a bit
cooler on Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region at the beginning of the period will
slowly move east but continue to influence the area possibly into
Wednesday. Long wave trough will move out of the Plains on
Thursday and head into the region on Friday. This will cause a
cold front to cross the area late Thursday into Thursday night.
There will be enough of a return of moisture ahead of the
boundary that showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead
of the front.
Temperatures will remain a bit above normal until Friday when
readings will fall back closer to climatology.
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered convection with isolated lightning strikes this
afternoon will continue but should have a bit less coverage than
earlier thinking. H5 ridge will see these storms work NNE through
the region and diminish as daytime heating wanes. A convergent
layer should help to keep some type of cloud cover overnight
which will break up Sunday morning. This will help inhibit storm
initiation until late tomorrow afternoon and push the threat for
any developing storms to be well east of the taf sites.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.