Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 292002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE CWA AND EVEN CLOSE TO 100 IN A FEW
SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL HELP FUEL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI
VALLEYS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING/PROPAGATING FURTHER EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WHILE SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABLIZATION WILL PROMOTE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME STRONGER AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET
MICROBURSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO DUE TO THE HIGH
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. LOCAL FLOODING CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD RISK.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK...BUT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOME ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO PRIOR TO
THE FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA LATE AT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60
F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY.
DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT MAIN
FOCUS FROM 19Z TO 23Z. SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THAT. SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY
NEAR OHIO RIVER. DON`T BELIEVE IT WILL BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. LIGHT WINDS THRU PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...PADGETT



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