Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 032044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE IS JUST NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION DOING THE SAME...SO
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NO MENTION OF POPS BEYOND 00Z. CLOUD DECK
APPEARS TO BE ERODING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CU FIELD
DISSIPATING AND STRATUS DECK SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE SUN ANGLE WE HAVE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE ROLLING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

MEFFER
&&


.AVIATION... MVFR CIGS STILL PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS FOR
CLOUDS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE AREA IS FINALLY CLOUD FREE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE COULD BE SOME LIGHT BR IN THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. SO DECIDED TO START OFF WITH EXERCISE CAUTION 00Z-
06Z...THEN SMALL CRAFT FROM THEN THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER 20+KNOT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED THE REST
OF THE DAY OR JUST EXERCISE CAUTION...SO HELD OFF ON EITHER BEYOND
15Z. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RIGHT AT THAT 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN
THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  78  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  78  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  63  77  63  78 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  58  79  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$


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