Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 291732
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS...GENERALLY WITH CUMULUS
FL025-035. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES TO BE AFFECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN MOST CASES...ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE A
REPEAT OF TODAY. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO
MAKE NOTE OF. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN FOR LATE EVENING...BUT THEN EXPECT TO SEE POPS INCREASE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS A BAND OF CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET YESTERDAY WITH ONLY ISLTD
ACTIVITY...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONDITIONS WERE QUIET MUGGY. AT
6Z MOST SITES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY RANGING FROM UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FIRST MOISTURE
WILL RECOVER SOME WITH PWS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 BY EARLY
AFTN. IN ADDITION AN H85 THETA E SURGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE GULF. THE RIDGING THAT WAS OVER THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL TX
WILL BE MOVING TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND BEGIN TO PUT THE
AREA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASE IN
LIFT/SUPPORT...INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND DIURNAL HEATING WE SHOULD
SEE SCT AFTN CONVECTION TODAY.

HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND MID LVL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AND EVEN DEEPEN BY SUN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH POPS SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH EACH
RESPECTIVE DAY. BY SUN THE DEEPENING TROUGH...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA.

SUN AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WE STILL LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE IN A WET PATTERN. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BASICALLY AGREE
(OF COURSE SOME MINOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES) THAT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
COULD EVEN DIG INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS WOULD BASICALLY KEEP THINGS
ACTIVE FROM A STANDPOINT OF RAIN BUT LUCKILY IT SHOULD HELP KEEP
STORM INTENSITY DOWN. SO NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR MAINLY A WET AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. /CAB/

AVIATION... LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z BEFORE LIFTING AS
AN INVERSION MIXES OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CEILINGS AND HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 6K FEET LATER
TODAY...EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO BE VERY TRANSITORY AND SHOULD NOT
HAVE TO SHOW ANY IN 12Z TAF PACK. VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AROUND
2SM IF THE MID LEVEL DECK CLEARS FOR A WHILE. BUT THIS 6K FT DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR LONG PERIODS.

MARINE... EAST TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL KEEP A GENERAL SE
FLOW OVERALL.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  68  84  68 /  40  40  50  40
BTR  87  70  85  70 /  40  40  50  40
ASD  85  71  85  71 /  40  40  30  30
MSY  86  73  85  72 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  84  73  85  72 /  40  30  30  20
PQL  85  70  85  70 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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