Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 221249

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
749 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016


A stable and exceptionally dry airmass is over the central Gulf
Coast States as high pressure moves across the region. The
precipitable water value is 0.30 inches. This is a record low
value for this date and time and is even below the 31 day minimum
moving average. Temperatures are lower (cooler) in the lowest
7500 feet compared to yesterday. Multiple temperature inversions
also exist in this layer. The wind profile is still backing with
winds from the northeast at the surface turning counter-clockwise
and blowing from the northwest by about 8000 feet and through the
rest of the troposphere. A peak wind speed of 56 knots was sampled at
45000 feet.

12z balloon info: No issues with the flight that ascended for 97 minutes
to a height of 19.7 miles above the ground bursting over marshy
area of eastern St. Bernard Parish 40 miles downrange from the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

A cool Saturday morning across the forecast area to start your
weekend. Temperatures this morning will start out in the mid 40s
across the northshore and the 50s and 60s across the southshore.
This morning has been some of the coolest temperatures that we
have seen this season and expect another cool night tonight as
high pressure continues to build in. Temperatures this morning did
not get as cool thanks to the wind remaining fairly active, but
tonight we may have a chance to get some good evaporative cooling
as the winds are expected to be lighter overnight. As stated in
previous forecast package guidance still suggests that we should
already be seeing some moderation of the air at 925mb and that
would tend for one to think that temperatures will not get as cool
as anticipated. Have stuck close to previous forecast for this
package. A warming trend is expected on Sunday with temperatures
rising to near or just above 80 degrees. High pressure shifts farther
away from the area on Monday, which will result in a continued
warming trend as low level winds become more easterly. The next
real weather maker looks to be on the table in the form of another
cold front approaching the area by late next week. Guidance is
fairly consistent on the feature being there and both are light on
the precipitation for our forecast area as it comes through. It is
not as strong as the cold front that just came through and should
not be a major issue as it pushed through sometime late next week.

No issues aviation wise. VFR conditions will persist
through the fcst and for the next few days. /CAB/

Still a little breezy out there as high pressure is still
trying to settle in. With this will extend the SCY till 15z allowing
the next update to finally get rid of the advisory. Also all zones
not in the advisory will still have Exercise Caution headlines
including the tidal lakes through the same timeframe. High pressure
will finally sit over the the region and provide generally benign
conditions well into next week. /CAB/

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Small Craft Advisory

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  74  42  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  75  45  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  43  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  74  53  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  41  78  48 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ555-557-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ557-575-


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