Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 240855
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
The nice days will continue on the dry side but the heat will
begin to increase by the weekend into next week.

There will be an isodrosothermal gradient with increasing values
oriented ne to sw today. This will be the only thing that would be
capable of producing anything in the way of rainfall. The reason
for the low confidence in actually getting rainfall over the nw
portion of the area will be two fold. The first will be due to the
wind orientation being from the se which will be parallel to the
moisture gradient and therefore no isentropic lift. The other will
be the sfc to mid level ridging found along the gulf coast
originating from the 1018mb high over the Carolinas. The strongest
subsident drying profile will be found where the ridging is
located. For these two very strong reasons...we have kept only a
10% pop for the nw portion of the area.

.LONG TERM...
This same scenario looks to play out for the majority of the week.
By the end of the work week...the troughing over central Tx will
move east just enough to increase our rain chances. This will be
dependant on what happens to the east coast high. Model trends
show it getting shoved a bit to the west due to a diturbance
moving into the east coast. If this is the case...the high and
associated ridging would deepen over the gulf coast possibly
keeping most activity from getting too far east. Will not make
many changes to the extended fcast at this time for these reasons.

&&

.AVIATION...

Seeing some reduced visibilities at KHUM this morning, mainly MVFR,
but occasionally IFR. Conditions should improve quickly after
sunrise. For the most part, expect VFR conditions to prevail through
the TAF period. Can`t rule out a little fog at the normally more
prone spots at KMCB and KHUM early Wednesday morning, but threat
probably not high enough to carry that far out in the forecast at
this time. 35

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the Carolinas has allowed onshore flow to return.
Expect winds for most of the coastal waters to be in the 10 to 15
knot range for much of the week. Could get up above 15 knots, mainly
over the western waters, on Friday. May need some Exercise Caution
headlines by Thursday night or Friday. With the persistent southeast
winds, a bit of swell may build up toward the end of the week. This
may also enhance tides, which will need to be monitored the second
half of the week. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  65  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  88  69  89  71 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  85  68  86  70 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  86  71  87  72 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  83  69  85  72 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  83  64  85  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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