Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 062221
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
421 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 1038MB HIGH FROM SOUTHERN
OHIO TO TEXAS COAST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED OUT IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLOUD MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST FRONT FROM CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CONFLUENT WEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST STATES...RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE PLOTS SHOWED VALUES BELOW 0.2 INCH OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND POINTS NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FIRSTLY...ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR NORTH HALF FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST AND TEEN DEWPOINTS...TEMPS
SHOULD DROP FAST AFTER SUNSET. ONLY FLY IN THE FAN WILL BE THE
SCATTERED CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. WITH BREAKS...DO THINK
TEMPS WILL DROP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE THIRD LEG TO THE
FREEZE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST ON SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA WILL SLIDE EAST AND TAP MOISTURE OVER
WEST GULF. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT OVER TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOISTEN THE AIR MASS OVER LOUISIANA. PW VALUES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE UP 1 INCH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST TO 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE ATCHAFALAYA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WEST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND TRACK OVER TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PW VALUES INCREASES 1.5 INCHES WITH SW
FLOW ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY.

EURO AND GFS STALLS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEAVING
A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS FROM WEST GULF OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NIL AND RAINFALL WILL
BE STRETCHED OUT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY 2
TO 4 INCHES AND SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATION A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST GULF AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW WILL BRING MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIODS ON FRIDAY. POSSIBLY DRYING OR LESS
CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WHILE SLOWLY VEERING TO EASTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY. 24

&&

.MARINE...
WILL REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER LEGS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WEST...COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 22 KNOTS WELL
OFFSHORE AND THESE WILL LIKELY MIXED DOWN TO SEA SURFACE.

A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET
SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE A BIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
A BRIEF BREAK IN EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RETREAT NORTH AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WEST GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY APPROACH
SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST BEYOND THE MARINE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT
             ASSESSING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  26  63  34  63 /   0   0  10  30
BTR  27  64  37  65 /   0   0  10  40
ASD  26  64  37  64 /   0   0  10  30
MSY  37  60  46  65 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  31  63  38  63 /   0   0  10  20
PQL  27  64  35  65 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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