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000
FXUS63 KLMK 250724
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Sunny Thursday, with temperatures slightly cooler than normal.

*   Best chances for rain through next week will come Friday ahead
    of a warm front and Monday ahead of a cold front.

*   Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of
    the southwest at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Clear skies and light winds this morning across southern Indiana and
the Bluegrass have supported a good radiational cooling night. We
have see temperatures early this morning drop into the mid-upper 30s
for those areas north of the I-64 corridor. Winds south of I-64 have
been enough to help keep temps closer to climate normals this
morning, with most obs in the mid-upper 40s. There`s likely some
patchy frost out there this morning across southern Indiana and the
Bluegrass, especially for any sheltered areas. Frosty conditions
will quickly dissipate after sunrise.

For the rest of today, we`ll have plenty of sunshine as sfc high
pressure to our north slides eastward and upper ridging to our west
keeps the column dry. Flow around the sfc high will translate to a
light E-NE sfc wind. These winds won`t bring any WAA into the region
today, so high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler
than climate normals. We`ll have low to mid 60s north of the
Kentucky Parkways, and upper 60s and around 70 to the south.

Tranquil weather continues this evening, though we`ll begin to see
cloud cover increase ahead of our next weather system. A warm front
will be approaching from the south tonight, which will introduce
small precip chances in the predawn hours tomorrow for only south-
central Kentucky. Precip chances will hold off for the rest of the
forecast area until the Long Term forecast period, which you can
read about below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday through Sunday Night...

A surface warm front will lift through the region on Friday bringing
a narrow band of rain showers to the region.  Model soundings show
hardly any instability with this boundary, so thunder looks to be
very limited.  Highs on the day will range from the lower 70s across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.  Mid-
upper 70s will be found further south/southwest.  For Friday night,
convection may be in progress near St. Louis, but this is forecast
to lift northeastward and away from our region.  We could have a few
showers/storms on some residual outflow boundaries across our
northern row of southern Indiana counties.  For now, will keep PoPs
in the slight chance range.  Lows Friday night will be in the low-
mid 60s.

For Saturday and into Sunday, temperatures will be above normal
during the period as we will be in a deep southwest flow and will be
solidly in the warm sector.  Model soundings show an increasing EML
across the region which is stronger on Sunday than Saturday.
Nonetheless model proximity soundings show subsidence aloft and a
cap around 850 hPa which likely keep any convection from developing.
In terms of sensible weather, as mentioned above, it will be rather
warm but it will also be breezy as well given the pressure gradient
across the region.  Highs Saturday will warm into the upper 70s and
lower 80s with highs on Sunday warming into the 80-85 degree range.
Wind gusts in the afternoon will likely be in the 25-30 mph range
both days.  Overnight lows during the period will be in the low-mid
60s.  A weakening cold front will push eastward toward the region
Sunday night and may bring a few showers to the western sections of
the CWA.

Monday through Wednesday...

Moving into next week, the active weather pattern to our west will
settle down a bit as the central US trough pulls northeast and
deamplifies with time.  A cold front will push through the region on
Monday yielding a good chance of showers and some storms.  The
severe threat across the region does not look all that impressive as
both instability (weak lapse rates) and decreasing bulk shear will
likely hinder strongly organized convective development.  Some
cooler air will work into the region behind the front. Highs on
Monday will likely exhibit a gradient with mid-upper 70s west of I-
65 and highs in the lower 80s east of I-65.  Lows Monday night will
cool into the 60-65 degree range.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature cooler conditions, but
temperatures are likely to rebound a bit on Wednesday.  Tuesday
looks to be a dry day across the region. NBM PoPs are likely
overdone here and I expect them to decrease a bit in the next
forecast iteration.  Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to
around 80.  Another frontal boundary may approach the region by
Wednesday yielding another round of showers/storms across the area.
Highs Wednesday will be in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through this forecast
cycle as high pressure centers over the Great Lakes region. NE winds
continue through Thursday with only a few upper clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP