Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon and
temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to lower 80s. As we go
into the evening hours, clouds will increase over southern IN and
north central KY as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
along this boundary this evening. These should mainly affect
southern IN, but a few may slide south of the Ohio River into KY. As
the boundary heads eastward into the overnight hours, the showers
should dissipate.

The frontal boundary will sag into southeastern central KY by
afternoon on Tuesday. Precipitation should again develop along it
Tuesday afternoon, which may affect the Lake Cumberland area.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the day for the rest
of the region. However, Tuesday night another weak cold front and
wave rounding the base of the upper level trough will bring a
renewed chance for scattered showers and perhaps a few


.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

A weak cold front will continue to cross central KY on Wednesday
with the chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
continuing. These should move out by Wednesday afternoon or early
evening with surface high pressure building in for the overnight
hours. This high pressure will bring dry weather through at least
Thursday morning and for much of the region through the afternoon
hours as well.

Thursday night into the weekend will become much more unsettled as a
couple of disturbance work their way through the zonal flow aloft
and a cold front slowly sinks south into the lower Ohio Valley.
Currently the most widespread rain chances look to be Friday night
into Saturday. As noted in the previous discussion, precipitable
water values will rise into the 1.75-2" range this weekend. Very
saturated soundings suggest we could see some heavy rainfall this
weekend with some minor flooding issues not out of the question.
Thus, the setup for this system bears watching this week. The front
does look to sink south of the area Sunday which would bring drier
weather to round out the weekend.

Temperatures through the long term period will be near normal for
this time of year with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows
in the upper 50s to 60s.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Fair weather cu and thin cirrus can be expected for the rest of the
daylight hours with southwesterly breezes. Tonight a weak cool front
will cross the region and may bring a stray shower to SDF in the
hours around and just after midnight, but otherwise uneventful VFR
conditions will be the rule. Mostly sunny skies will return behind
the front on Tuesday, with a breeze coming in from the west possibly
few knots stronger than today.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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