Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 021141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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