Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
227 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

The short wave that brought a bit of cloud cover to our west and
southwestern zones on Sunday was exiting the area into Central and
East Texas early this morning. In its wake, plenty of subsidence was
evident as clouds had cleared and temperatures were falling quickly
across the northwestern zones. As such, made a small adjustment on
overnight lows in the northwest to lower temperatures. The cold
front from yesterday will retreat northward from our area today, and
we`ll see another warm and mostly sunny day. However, thickness
values should be slightly lower than yesterday helping to keep highs
mostly in the lower 80s across the forecast area...which is a great
improvement over the 88 we saw in Lubbock yesterday...15 degrees
above normal! Late evening into the overnight hours, we`ll start to
see high clouds streaming in from the next system. Low clouds may
develop across the south and southeastern zones early tomorrow
morning as we see a return of moisture from the south.

Upper level ridging over the plains will briefly give way to an
upper trough that will move across the central third of the CONUS
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Effects on the forecast area will
consist of high temperatures Tuesday slightly less than today, the
need to discuss small thunderstorm chances, and the movement of a
weak cold front into the area in the wake of the trough passage.
Regarding precipitation, low level moisture recovery tonight and
early Tuesday will result in surface dew point temperatures in the
mid to upper 50s for a good portion of the forecast area. Models
continue to strongly favor a capped environment with very little
chance that the associated surface trough and weak upper support
will be able to break that cap. Will keep precip chances below the
15 percent threshold for mention in the forecast, but also would
not be surprised if a storm or two tries to develop across the
northwestern zones Tuesday afternoon.

The remainder of the forecast looks to be dominated by the return
of upper level ridging and the warm to very warm temperatures
associated with it. Despite the cold front early Wednesday and the
modest northerly low level flow behind it, increasing heights and
thicknesses point to warmer temperatures versus Tuesday. Areawide
highs in the 80s to persist at least through the week. Will favor
the warmer MOS numbers over model blends.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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