Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 112311
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 13/00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A BUILDING CU
FIELD EXTENDING FROM SE NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG BUT STILL HOT IN THE UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S...WITH AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK REACHING THE MID 90S...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE TRANS-
PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOW 90S THROUGHOUT THE AREA SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICKUP AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO WEST WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT
ACTIVITY HAS SMALL CHANCE AFFECTING OUR CWA...ESP GIVEN FACT THAT
STEERING FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY ON EASTERN EDGE OF WESTWARD MOVING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR SW TX. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SIMILAR TO
RECENT DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS 60S/LOWER 70S.

BIG PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
FRONT TOWARD WEST TEXAS SUNDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER SURGE MOVES A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING UPSLOPE E-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING SE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO CREATE FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FOR SERIES OF MCS/S TO AFFECT THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY
CONSISTENT AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH QPF SIGNALS AND GENERAL TIMING.
APPEARS THAT PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH GFS DOES CONTINUE
RAIN INTO FRIDAY WITH DIRTY RIDGE DEVELOPING IN WEAKENING NW FLOW
PATTERN. BY WED/THUR PWAT/S INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES SO WE
SHOULD HAVE A JUICY ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH.

WITH CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNALS...DECIDED TO BUMP UP POPS FURTHER
ESPECIALLY IN TUE-THUR TIME FRAME. SHOULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR MID JULY...WITH BOTH WED AND THUR HOLDING INTO THE
LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME UPPER 70S
DEPENDING ON RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER INTO FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK CLOSER TO NORMS. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  90  63  88  65 /   0  10   0  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  91  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  91  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  91  67  92  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  65  91  65 /   0  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  66  91  66 /   0  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  96  70  98  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          67  94  68  96  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  97  71  99  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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