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000
FXUS64 KMEG 300503
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 953 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A deep upper low is located over Kentucky this evening. Areas of
clouds will continue to rotate around this feature into the Mid-
South overnight. Meanwhile most of the shower activity remains NE
of the region closer to the upper low itself. Expect lows ranging
from around 50, perhaps a few upper 40s, along the Tennessee River
to upper 50s in Memphis. Updated forecast to remove pops in NE
portion of West Tennessee. Also added some patchy fog across
portions of West Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi where skies
may remain cloud free for a while and winds have gone calm.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/

A mix of seasons across the Midsouth this afternoon...with mostly
cloudy skies and cool temperatures in 50s/60s across the northeast
counties...while the south and west is enjoying sunnier skies and
readings in the 70s. Winds are brisk from the north with the
highest gusts near 25mph in the Delta. A few very light showers
were rotating south out of western Kentucky on radar.

Today through Saturday...models have a strong handle on the upper
level low in the mid Ohio valley...with it forecasted to
meander/wobble perhaps 100 miles from its current location the
next 36 hours before slowly filling and drifting north to the
Great Lakes. For the Midsouth cyclonic flow around the low will
keep skies mostly cloudy in the north and east with a threat for
isolated showers. More pleasant Fall weather is expected over the
south and west. Have kept temperatures below seasonal normals in
the north with near normal...to slightly above normal elsewhere.

Sunday through Tuesday...upper level ridging residing in the
Plains will slide into the Mississippi Valley this period as the
upper low further decays and lifts into New England. Bottom line
dry weather is expected for the Midsouth. Temperatures starting
around five degrees above average on Sunday will warm to around
ten above average by Tuesday. Afternoon RH`s will drop below 30
percent contributing to potential fire weather headlines/concerns.

Middle of next week...the GFS and ECMWF both signal the next major
shortwave/closed low to cross the Rockies...and a tropical system
somewhere along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Models differ with both
the track and the strength of both features. With regards to the
approaching trough the ECMWF has a deeper central height...a
plume of near 70F dewpoints surging north and greater QPF for the
Midsouth. The GFS is slower with the energy...not as deep with the
central height but is farther south. In addition the boundary
layer moisture return is considerably less with the GFS. For now
have placed slight pops in the forecast beginning Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday for areas along and west of the
Mississippi River. Above normal temperatures will continue.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue for most of the forecast period.
Some low clouds are expected to move into the region overnight
which may produce some IFR ceilings at times. Winds will be
mainly from the north at around 5 knots overnight. Winds will be
northwest at 5 to 10 knots on Friday.

ARS

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$