Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 250436
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 813 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated to diminish clouds and adjust evening temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned across the Midsouth and skies have quickly
cleared. This has allowed temperatures to cool into the low 70s
across a good portion of west Tennessee or about five degrees
cooler than forecast. So reduced cloud cover wording and adjusted
temperatures east of the Mississippi River accordingly.

Patchy fog expected to form once again as early as midnight
across the east.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

The upper level low that we`ve been talking about for the past
several days is finally having its impact on the Midsouth with
scattered thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon. Temperatures range
from near 80 where heavy rainfall has occurred, to near 90 most
everywhere else. Expect storms to dissipate early this evening
with some patchy fog possible late, particularly across western
TN. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to near 70.

Tomorrow there will be another slight chance of showers or
thunderstorms, particularly in northwest MS and eastern AR where
the greatest influence of the upper level low looks to take place.
Elsewhere upper level riding will be building back in which will
lead to dry conditions in the Midsouth on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Still on track for a gradual cold frontal passage during the day
Wednesday, but the real effects of the front will not be
appreciatively felt until Thursday. Highs remain near 90 each day
until Thursday, when a sharp drop in humidity will be evident with
temperatures struggling to get above 80 degrees for much of the
area.

The best of the fall weather will be saved for the weekend, when a
reinforcing cold front moves through on Friday, keeping conditions
dry but also continuing the cooling trend. Temperatures for the
weekend look to be in the mid to upper 70s for highs, with lows
dipping into the 50s.

WLC

&&

AVIATION.../06z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
The exception will again be vsby reductions at KJBR and KMKL in
fog.

Isolated convection will again be possible near all sites on
Monday afternoon as the upper level low remains over the region.
Convection should end by early evening.

Winds will remain light through the period.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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