Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 181126
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
526 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/
A stationary front currently stretches from Natchez, Mississippi
northeastward to just south of Columbus, Mississippi. A low
pressure center has developed over South Texas overnight. The SFC
low will begin to track northeastward along the Texas Coast into
Louisiana by tonight. This will allow the front to begin lifting
northward as a warm front. Current images from KNQA radar already
show a few showers affecting portions of East-Central Arkansas
and Northwest Mississippi. The showers will increase in coverage
today as the front begins to lift northward. East-Central Arkansas
and Northwest Mississippi will continue to see the best chances
for showers today. Highs will range from upper 40s across
Northeast Arkansas to lower to mid 60s across Northeast
The front will surge northward through the Mid-South tonight as
the SFC low tracks northeastward roughly along the Mississippi
River. Expect lows to occur shortly after sunset. Thereafter,
temperatures will either hold steady or slowly rise. Heavier
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area by midnight.
Best chances will be along and west of the Mississippi River
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Mid-South on
Thursday as the upper trof swings into the area. Best chances will
occur east of the Mississippi River after mid-morning. Would not
be surprised to see a few storms become strong to severe across
Northeast Mississippi and areas of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River. The trof will move the shower and thunderstorm
activity east of the CWA by midnight Thursday evening.
Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the 50s and 60s and
lows in the 40s and 50s.
Expect a lull in activity Friday into Friday evening before the
next low pressure system approaches the area. Temperatures will
remain warm thanks to southwest flow aloft. Highs will be in the
60s and 70s.
Showers and thunderstorms will begin spreading back into the
Mid-South late Friday Night into Saturday morning as the next
shortwave ahead of the approaching low pressure system moves into
the area. Models continue to have some differences in timing,
evolution, and location of the next low pressure system that will
move into the area during the latter part of next weekend. The low
pressure system will definitely be more potent than the one that
will move through on Thursday. With the above normal temperatures
and moist and at least somewhat unstable atmosphere, there will be
the potential for some severe thunderstorms developing across the
The low pressure system will slowly push east on Monday. Lingering
showers will continue into Monday evening for areas near the
Tennessee River. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area
behind the system.
An area of low clouds based around 1500 ft currently extends from
just north of KJBR to KMKL. These clouds will sag south over the
next few hours but are expected to halt well north of KMEM.
Borderline MVFR ceilings exist over much of north MS. Expect
improving conditions by late morning. The large area of rain over
southern AR continues to erode as it approaches the Mid-South,
but a few showers aren`t out of the question.
Ceilings are expected to develop and should gradually lower
during the evening and early morning hours. Expect showers to
increase in coverage by 06z. A few thunderstorms will be possible,
but confidence was low enough to preclude from the TAF at this
time. Ceilings were not forecast as low as the models, but IFR
conditions are likely after 06z.