Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 252319
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. High pressure
is centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico at this time. The
high should not move much tonight leaving continue dry weather
over the region. Temperatures will remain at or slightly below
normal tonight with lows Friday morning in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

On Friday, a warm front will move through the forecast area during
the morning hours. This front may trigger an isolated
thunderstorm over extreme northwest sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be warmer than today with highs mainly in the
80s. By Friday night, a cold front will approach southern Missouri
and northwest Arkansas. Some thunderstorms are expected to form
ahead of the front with some of this activity possibly reaching
western and northern sections of the forecast area. A strong or
severe thunderstorm will be possible over extreme northern
sections of the forecast area Friday night. Temperatures will
remain quite warm on Friday night with lows Saturday morning in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Saturday, the cold front will stall out to our north. More
thunderstorms should form ahead of the front with some of the
activity reaching the forecast area. Temperatures will remain on
the warm side with highs in the mid to upper 80s. By Saturday
night, the cold front will get close to the forecast area so there
will be a better chance of thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms
could be severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats. Some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible
Saturday night. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Sunday
morning in the lower 70s.

The cold front will move into the forecast area on Sunday with
more thunderstorms expected especially over eastern sections of
the forecast area. By Sunday night, the cold front will start to
move out of the forecast area so southern sections will have the
best chance of thunderstorms. The cold front will be out of the
forecast area Monday with rain ending over southern sections. The
front will stall out just to our south by Monday night so there
may still be a small chance of a thunderstorm over portions of
north Mississippi.

High pressure will briefly build into the region by Tuesday with
dry weather and seasonal temperatures expected for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The frontal boundary will move north from the Gulf
coast starting Wednesday and continuing into next Thursday. This
will mean a small chance of thunderstorms starting Wednesday and
continuing into next Thursday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00z TAFs

VFR weather to prevail this period. Main concern will be
increasing south to southwest winds starting near sunrise.
Highest winds will be at JBR and MEM with frequent gusts over 25
kts. Lower VFR cigs may roll into JBR by the end of the period.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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