Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 012035
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...
850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO READINGS OF
100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (01/18Z-02/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NE NEAR 11 KTS
AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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