Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KMEG 241100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/

Primary interrelated forecast challenges remains heat indices and
convective trends.

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a broad upper level
height ridge across the southern half the CONUS. This upper ridge
had deamplified from its position over the central plains several
days ago. In addition, a weak nearly stationary easterly wave and
extensive mid/upper level cloudiness was present over the lower
MS River valley. This wave will drift slowly west into AR/LA by
this afternoon, likely initially focusing thunderstorm development
in this region. In the weakly-sheared environment, additional
thunderstorms will likely develop along eastward-expanding
outflow boundaries into the Midsouth.

In areas not affected by thunderstorm outflow, heat indices could
quickly warm above 105F. The heat advisory has been carried over
today, but the initial presence of high clouds and low level
thunderstorm outflow later today limits forecast confidence.
Similar conditions expected for Monday. Given the limited forecast
confidence, and after collaborating with surrounding forecast
offices, have deferred extending the Heat Advisory into Monday.

Tuesday will see the arrival of weak westerly upper level flow
and additional destabilizing effects of a stationary sheer axis
near the Arklamiss. Northwest upper level flow will gradually
increase in strength with height falls through late in the week,
leading to continued rain chances and daytime temperatures
moderating to near or slightly below normal as we close out July.




12Z TAF Set

Isolated TSRAs continue to affect KMEM at this time. Expect them
to dissipate by 13Z. By 16-18Z, expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Mid-South. Will
continue VCTS wording at all TAF sites through 01Z for now. Too
hard to pinpoint best timing for convection at this time. Winds
will generally be from the south today around 6 KTS. Light and
variable winds expected during the evening hours into the
overnight period.




.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton MS-Coahoma-

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.