Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010426
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING DOWN NICELY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...JUST UPDATED TO REMOVE THE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AT MKL/TUP/JBR OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS AFTER 01/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 02/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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