Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 050448
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1148 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 849 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE MID-
SOUTH ALONG WITH JUST ABOUT ALL THE CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF FORECAST AREA.

HAVE CHANGED CLOUD COVER FOR EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING.
ALSO...WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED...SO LOWERED WIND
SPEEDS BY A COUPLE MPH.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.

TLSJR

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATO-CU AROUND
4000-5000 FT WILL LIKELY BEGIN REDEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. EXPECT
KMKL AND KTUP TO GO BKN BETWEEN 18-21Z. STRONG AND GUSTY N-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 16-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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