037
FXUS64 KMEG 152337
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
  primarily along and north of I-40. Heavy rain and gusty winds
  are the primary threat with any storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across the Mid-South
  through late week, with high temperatures generally in the low
  to mid 90s each day.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Wednesday afternoon with heat
  indices of up to 110 possible for much of the region. Triple
  digit heat indices may persist into the upcoming weekend as
  well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Broad ridging still continues with the main belt of westerlies
will north of the Southern CONUS along the US/Canada border. A
decaying MCV currently sits to the northwest of the area with
subtle troughing extending east out to the Mississippi River.
Warm, humid air underneath the predominant ridging will promote
high surface instability which could trigger a few thunderstorms
within subtle height falls from the west. However, given the
strength of the ridge, shower/storm coverage should remain at or
below 30% and diminish significantly after sunset. This pattern
will hold through the next several days with daily, isolated
showers and thunderstorms.

The ridging over the central and southern CONUS will only
strengthen with time and is advertised well within medium range
guidance. By Thursday evening, ridging will approach 594-595 dm at
500mb which is near the 90th percentile for the majority of the
region. The strength of the ridge will only continue to build
throughout the end of the week and this upcoming weekend with some
areas potentially reaching 99th percentile 500 mb heights. With
tropical moisture going nowhere, this will lead to dangerous heat
on a daily basis for the foreseeable future. As such, we have
already hoisted a Heat Advisory for much of the Midsouth tomorrow
with additional Advisories likely Thursday and Friday. Heat
indices will reach anywhere from 105-110 in these areas during the
afternoon and evening.

Alongside the heat, a tropical disturbance currently over eastern
Florida will meander into the Gulf through the week. The NHC
currently gives this system a 40% chance of developing into a
tropical depression in the next 7 days, taking its track west
just south of the Gulf Coast. Regardless of how strong this
tropical system will get, deeper moisture will inevitably make its
way closer to the Midsouth in the next week. This promotes the
idea of increased shower/rain coverage sometime next week, but
forecast uncertainty is still high. Will continue to monitor as we
move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Biggest concern this issuance is convection and a large wind shift
to the west over the next few hours associated with a large
outflow boundary. Given uncertainty on sporadic storms along this
boundary, VCTS at JBR/MEM/MKL looked to be the best way to handle
said storms. Overnight, fog is expected to develop at MKL/TUP as
winds go calm and pockets of clear skies move over both terminals.
Fog should lift by sunrise. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across the airspace. South/southwest winds will remain sub
10 kts over the next 30 hours or so.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low as high heat and humidity
remain in place over the next week. Temperatures will trend hotter
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ048-049-
     088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH