Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 192337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
537 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/


Clouds continue to spread into the Mid-South ahead of a weak upper
level low pressure system that is developing over East Texas. The
clouds have kept temperatures cooler than expected today. In
locations that still have some snow pack, temperatures have
struggled to get out of the 30s. The clouds will likely hang
around the entire weekend as the weak upper level low tracks
eastward through Southern Mississippi on Saturday and another low
pressure system develops over the Plains. Southerly winds will
continue across the area which will continue to help bring warmer
temperatures into the area. Expect highs on Saturday to be about
10 degrees warmer than today. Areas that continue to have some
snow on the ground will be the coldest. Would think by Sunday that
whatever snow is remaining will melt. Can`t rule out a few light
showers and/or drizzle occurring over the weekend as well.

A low pressure system will move out of the Plains Sunday Night.
The SFC low will track across Missouri with the trailing cold
front moving into Eastern Arkansas after midnight. With the SFC
low expected to occlude, pinching off the warm sector by the time
the front enters the Mid-South, should keep any thunderstorms
from becoming severe. Although, can`t rule out a lingering strong
storm as the line of thunderstorms pushes into Eastern Arkansas.

The line of convection will quickly push east and should be east
of the Tennessee River and the MS/AL border by noon on Monday.
Even though the system is of Pacific origin, models are showing
some Arctic air getting pulled in behind the upper low which could
allow for falling temperatures Monday afternoon across Eastern
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. However,temperatures will
moderate quickly and expect highs on Tuesday to be near normal.

Tranquil conditions with seasonable temperatures will continue
through the week until possibly Friday when another upper trof
begins digging into the Plains. Small chances for rain may begin
on Friday ahead of the trof.



/00z TAFs/

A deck of low stratus has overspread the Mid-South this afternoon
and will remain in place through the TAF period. Ceilings are
generally in the 3500-4000 ft range but may occasionally fall to
~3000 ft at times. Ceilings are expected to lower slightly by
Saturday morning and a few showers are possible in the KJBR area
after 18z. Expect generally MVFR conditions outside of KTUP where
VFR is expected to continue. Winds will continue from the south at
6-10 kts.





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