Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 310029
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THIS APPARENT
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO A UNION
CITY TENNESSEE LINE. IN ADDITION...NOT SOLD ON THE OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER...SO REDUCED THUNDER TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.
LASTLY...REDUCED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE
CURRENT 6 PM READINGS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND
KTUP. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KJBR AS
MUCH OF THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN FURTHER TO THE EAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IFR CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT KJBR.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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