Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 281819
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE PLANNED. THIS MORNING THERE CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.  TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

BUSY WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. TWO MATTERS
OF CONCERN TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS. THE OTHER
BEING THE THREAT OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. RAIN HAD ENDED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BUT WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WERE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO WEST TN AND NORTH MS. BASED ON THE HRRR...KEPT HIGH
POPS FOR THIS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. PROLONGED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTH MS...BUT FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MS...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUPELO BUT WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH STEADY OR SLOWING FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS. THE GFS INDICATES A 1058 MB HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR NEW YEARS DAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH MS.

THE BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH POPS SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP
WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...A MIXTURE
OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TN...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG AR TO
COVINGTON TN TO SAVANNAH TN. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
RAIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. BRIEF SLEET MAY OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THIS AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WITH ALL THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS TEXAS. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE NEAR MEM...MKL...AND TUP
THROUGH 29/00Z AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
29/14Z...EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND
29/08Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL SITES BY THE END OF
THE THIS TAF CYCLE.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.