Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 160446
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE FALLING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI TENNESSEE STATE
LINE...BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR ISN`T REACHING THE
GROUND. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT FALL OFF AS QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 50S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

CURRENTLY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A EXITING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW
LEFTOVER SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION
THOUGH MOST PLACES REMAIN DRY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID AND LOWER
70S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
WINDS ARE LIGHT.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS WEAK WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE SO
NOT MUCH QPF IS BEING PRODUCED BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS. AT THIS
POINT HARD TO JUSTIFY INCREASING POPS BEYOND 20 PERCENT. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW
CLOUDS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY CLEARING OUT
OF NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NE MS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
DELTA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
TOWARD EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. THE 12Z NAM IS
REALLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SRN
MO/NRN AR AND MOVING IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. FOLLOWED THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/ECMWF WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SLIGHT/CHC POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE DELTA WED AFTN/WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THU THEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO
NORMAL...AND MAYBE A LITTLE ABOVE...BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A DECENT
CHANCE OF RAIN THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VCSH POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT MEM AND TUP MAINLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW/W WINDS WILL VEER NORTH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND INCREASE TO 6-8 KTS.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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