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000
FXUS63 KMPX 112349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

THERE IS NICE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL HOVERING RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEVERAL DAYS
OVER THE PAST WEEK/ WITH A FEW HOURS OF COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN QUICKLY WARMING BEHIND THE HIGH AS W-SW FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN. THERE IS STILL A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND WI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUICK
COOLING TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE THE 12Z
EXPIRATION IF WARMING COMES IN ANY FASTER BETWEEN 03-09Z.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.
THE 280 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS THE BEST SATURATION /WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 750-650 MB/ THIS IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE -12 TO -18
LAYER...BUT THERE IS STILL OMEGA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DENDRITE
ZONE...SO WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE EFFICIENTLY GROWING CRYSTALS
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW LOOKS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94
WHERE ANOTHER 0.5-1.0" OF FLUFF IS POSSIBLE. SAME STORY DIFFERENT
NIGHT. I GUESS THE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW IS WE WILL BE WARMING RATHER
THAN SEEING ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY COME THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD REGIME REMAINING UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS GENERATING
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BEING SPLIT...WITH GREATER
ENERGY TRAVELING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM LIFTS AND MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THIS MAY DRAW A BIT WARMER AIR TO MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE...COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME WARMER PACIFIC
AIR BEING DRAWN EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSION WHICH MAY ARRIVE AROUND THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL WAA RESIDES OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SE TONIGHT...WITH
THE WAA/FORCING PASSING ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE BULLISH FOR A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES BY. CEILINGS ALREADY
BKN-OVC015-030 OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 2SM. HENCE...WENT WITH MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL
OF THE TAFS EXCEPT KRWF WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. IT`S ALL
OVER BY DAYBREAK WITH VFR ON THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST FOR A TIME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

KMSP...A PERIOD OF MVFR SNOW MOVING IN BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
LASTING TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. ACCUMULATION UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE.
VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS S TO SW 6-8 KTS EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING W
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AND -SN. WINDS ENE 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR AND -SN. WINDS NE 5 KTS BACKING
NW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ043>045-
     050>053-061-063-078.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH