188
FXUS63 KMPX 160432
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through
tomorrow morning. A few severe storms are possible along with the
threat of heavy rain.

- Much cooler temperatures behind this system will hang around
through the end of the week.

- Next chance for showers and storms arrives late Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A stalled frontal boundary is draped across central Minnesota
early this afternoon. This has been the focus for some sub-
severe thunderstorms throughout the morning and this afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm development is expected over the coming
hours as further destabilization continues along and south of
the front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for
portions of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin through this
evening. Dew points are in the low to mid 70s with temperatures
in the upper 80s, allowing for heat indices in the mid to upper
90s. While there is no shortage of CAPE, the shear environment
is marginal. This should lead to some fairly unorganized
convection with the threat for a few strong to severe storms
along with some heavy rain due to slow storm motion. The front
will slowly begin to sag southward late this evening through the
overnight, with most CAMs showing a line of storms on the
leading edge. The front will also work to bring some smoke back
to the surface across far west central Minnesota, though this
should be short lived. As instability decreases after dark, the
focus shifts to more of a heavy rain threat with PWATs
approaching 2". An MCV is forecast to move across northern Iowa
early tomorrow morning, leading to another uptick in storms
across much of central/southern Minnesota and eventually western
Wisconsin. Generally, QPF totals through tomorrow range from an
inch to an inch and a half, but locally higher amounts of 2-3"
aren`t out of the question. Temperatures tomorrow will be some
20-30 degrees cooler behind the front with locales across
central Minnesota topping out in the low 60s with mid 70s
further south. Rain will gradually taper off by late tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday will feature drier conditions and highs in
the low to mid 70s. Our next chance of precip is late Friday
into early Saturday as a shortwave moves across the region.
Highs in the 80s return for the weekend with mostly dry weather
expected. A more active pattern is on the horizon with several
disturbances tracking across the Upper Midwest with temperatures
increasing through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

RA/TSRA will slowly but surely fill in across central-southern
MN through western WI through sunrise. TAF sites will experience
intermittent bouts of precipitation followed by more steady
rainfall close to sunrise, lasting for at least half of
Wednesday. Conditions will drop to MVFR, mainly due to ceilings,
and likely IFR, again mainly due to ceilings. However, TSRA with
heavier rainfall may also drop visibility to IFR at times.
Precipitation finally looks to wane Wednesday afternoon with VFR
conditions likely by or during Wednesday evening.

KMSP...VFR to start, but conditions will quickly drop to MVFR as
individual convective cells move across MSP through the early
morning hours. Closer to daybreak, the larger swath of rainfall
over western MN will make its way east to encompass much of
eastern MN, thus allowing for steady rain with a few embedded
thunderstorms for the morning push. Rainfall will continue
through mid-afternoon before diminishing going into the
afternoon push, with dry conditions Wednesday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -TSRA after dark. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc -TSRA early morning. Wind SE bcmg N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC