Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 030111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE CONVECTION FROM OK TO AR TO TN/KY THIS EVENING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE SE ACROSS LIKELY ALL BUT THE FAR NE CORNER OF
E TN AND SW VA. THE RAP/HRRR HAS BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT FROM
HOUR TO HOUR...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE
BULK OF E TN AND SW NC OVERNIGHT. OHX`S NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES GETTING
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE LOW 1 AND 3 HOUR FFG
VALUES OVER PLATEAU AND SE TN COUNTIES.

WILL CONSIDER LOWERING POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SW VA IN AN UPDATE OF GRIDS
BY AROUND 10 TO 1030 PM EDT. HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT TEMP GRIDS
LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG


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