Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 230216 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Strong upper storm system will continue move toward
the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians late tonight and
Monday. Strong upper level jet of 90+ kts will move north across
the Tennessee/Ohio valleys placing the southern Appalachians under
the favored right entrance region of the jet.

Latest satellite and radar already showing convection expanding
and strengthening over west Tennessee and northwest Alabama. Meso
analysis shows pressure falls across much of Tennessee due to the
synoptic lift with this system.

The direct circulation around this jet will strengthen the
fronto-genetic band that moves through Monday morning/early
afternoon. The dynamic forcing is quite strong. Even though
instability will be limited, enough forcing to produce widespread
showers and chance of storms, south of interstate 40.

The strength of the direct circulation around this jet will also
produce a strong low-level jet with 850mb winds increasing to
60-65kts. Even though instability is lacking, concerned that some
convection may produce strong gusty winds.

Also, the strong boundary jet and favorable thermal profile for
damaging mountain wave high winds over the higher terrain and
adjacent foothills. Will maintain High Wind Warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  70  48  63 /  90 100  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  69  48  61 /  60  90  40  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  69  47  61 /  70 100  40  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  71  46  62 /  30  90  70  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for Johnson-Northwest Carter-
     Southeast Carter-Unicoi.

     High Wind Warning until 1 PM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe.

VA...None.
&&

$$





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