Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 282017
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
312 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LAYER RIDGING MOVES RAPIDLY
SE THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. UPPER JET
SEGMENT DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD MID MS VALLEY CARVING LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FAVORING
NORTHERN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FAVORING
ELEVATED NORTHERN AREAS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE SW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLEARING WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT AS LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /ALONG WITH SOME PEAKS OF
SUN/ SHOULD HELP WARM HIGHS UP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S DURING
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S... THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT AND BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CHANGE ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS  ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A BRIEF BOUT OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  54  34  46 /  10  30  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  51  32  39 /  10  30  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  49  32  41 /  10  30  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              23  50  30  36 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/AMP


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