Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 200749
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS PROG RELATIVELY DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR...IMPACTING SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
THIS IS AS AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVELENGTH FEATURES DROPPING SOUTHEAST
IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY LONG WAVE TROUGH. WENT JUST A LITTLE
CLOSER TO CONSISTENTLY BETTER...AND COOLER...MET MOS MAXES TODAY
WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO MOS MIN BLEND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE
PLANTED OVER THE LOWER MS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
OUR AREA WILL BRING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR NE SECTIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND HOT. WITH THE STAGNANT
PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS NE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...POPS LOWER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND MAINLY FAVOR TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS
SUMMER...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             92  72  94  73 /  30  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  71  90  72 /  40  20  30  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  71  90  71 /  40  20  30  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  65  88  67 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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