Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 232105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
305 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon and evening showers will be possible
again today, due to continued unsettled weather. Some lightning is
possible is areas of showers, but will be infrequent. The
locations least likely to experience showers and lightning will be
Lincoln and Sanders counties in Montana, while most other
locations in central Idaho and western Montana will see
intermittent rainfall the rest of the day. Scattered showers and
thunder will once again be possible in a nearly identical fashion
for Sunday.

Memorial Day and Tuesday a low pressure system to the northwest
will slowly migrate over the area. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread on these days. Not all
locations in western Montana and north central Idaho will get rain
each day, but locations affected by showers can expect a few
tenths of an inch. Over the course of the early week, most
locations across the area will likely get accumulations of at
least a quarter inch. Thunderstorms with lightning and small hail
will be possible, so those with outdoor plans should plan

Expect a continued daily threat of showers and thunderstorms for
the latter half of next week. The upper-level low will take its
time to exit the area, allowing for continued enhancement of
moisture and lift and thus continuing the diurnal storm threat
Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoons. Forecast certainty
drops off quickly from that point on, so the current forecast
reflects climatology which is a daily chance of showers/t-storms.


.AVIATION...Intermittent rain showers are likely for all terminals
through roughly 24/0500Z, with lightning possible at KBTM and
KSMN. Gusty winds out of the north-northeast will accompany
showers, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the same
time frame. Unsettled conditions will return Sunday afternoon.



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