Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 252052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
252 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

...High runoff continues in NW Montana...
...Potential morning frost Memorial weekend...

.DISCUSSION...Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to impact much of western Montana and north-central
Idaho this afternoon and evening. However, rainfall amounts are
not expected to be high, generally less than 0.15 inches of rain
for most. Though, some hires models are indicating stronger and
slower moving storms are possible around West Glacier, Columbia
Falls, and Hungry Horse this afternoon and evening after 4PM. Up
to 0.50 inches or more of rain will be possible, which could
produce further runoff from due to the ground remaining saturated
from the weekend storm system. Thursday will be much the same as
what we see today. Temperatures will be at or slightly below
normal for this time of the year for most locations of the
Northern Rockies.

Starting Friday, another trough of low pressure will begin to
approach western Montana and central Idaho. This will bring
increasing showers and gusty westerly winds.

For Memorial day weekend, the forecast has changed quite a bit in
the last few days. The latest forecast does not look as rainy as
it did a couple of days ago. The trough of low pressure will still
bring cooler than normal temperatures with the potential for frost
Saturday morning across western Montana valleys and some valleys
in central Idaho. Showers will be on the increase each afternoon,
but it is expected to be more focused over area terrain. Valleys
should see off and on light showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Memorial day is looking like the best chance for scattered
showers, but there is still some uncertainty on how widespread the
rain showers will be, so stay tuned for more details.

In the long term, models are now hinting at a pattern change by
later next week. Instead of the cooler and showery weather we have
had the past few weeks, we could see warmer and drier weather by
late next week.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop throughout western Montana and north-central Idaho this
afternoon and evening. Terminals can expect a brief period of
light to moderate rain showers, that could reduce visibility for a
short time this evening until around 26/00Z. Brief gusty northwest
winds will be possible with these showers as well. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy skies with scattered mountain obscurations can be
expected throughout the Northern Rockies until around 26/0600Z.



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