Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 030938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...Bright, sunny skies will again be common today as a
ridge of high pressure remains overhead. Temperatures will be
pleasantly warm with highs ranging from 15-20 degrees above
normal. These warm temperatures will set the stage for another
gradual rise in creeks and rivers from snow melt as the week

Precipitation chances will be minimal through mid week. Increasing
mid level moisture on Wednesday will allow for isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain,
but minimal instability will keep storms rather weak.

Moisture and instability will increase Thursday to bring the
potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Though there
is still some uncertainty, ingredients are becoming more
favorable for the possibility of a few strong storms to develop
that could bring very gusty erratic winds to localized areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will extend into Friday, though the
focus of precipitation shifts farther south. In addition, a
backdoor cold front will set up along the Continental Divide
Friday and result in breezy east winds across the area. Winds will
stay breezy through Saturday for north-central ID and southwest MT
as the surface high pressure tracks southward. Precipitation will
begin to taper off for the rest of the area by Saturday, though
some isolated showers could develop through the rest of the

Forecast models continue to allow for the potential of a
relatively cool and showery pattern early next week but
confidence is low at this point.


.AVIATION...High pressure will continue to result in stable
conditions with generally light winds and limited cloud cover.
Any aviation impacts will likely only come from temperatures 10-15
degrees about average resulting in high density altitudes.



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