Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 290914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A sunny day is on tap for the Northern Rockies,
marking the beginning of several days of mostly sunny skies,
drying conditions, and gradually warming temperatures. This
morning will be the coldest morning of the week, so the threat for
frost will no longer exist henceforth. Today`s highs for central
Idaho will range in the 80s and 90s, with western Montana ranging
in the mid 70s to upper 80s. By Thursday, expect daytime highs to
warm an additional 5 to 10 degrees areawide.

High pressure will be strongest over the region on Friday and
Saturday, with afternoon temperatures approaching nearly ten
degrees above normal. Whether Friday or Saturday is the hottest
day remains up for forecast debate. But make no mistake about it,
summertime conditions will be making a rapid return to end what
will prove to be quite the weather roller coaster of a week!

The North American Monsoon has yet again helped initiate
thunderstorm activity across Arizona over the past twenty-four
hours. Moisture from these storms and future activity forecast for
today and Thursday will gradually round the high pressure ridge,
coming up the coast of California and eventually into the Northern
Rockies this weekend. The first chance for afternoon thunderstorms
will be on Saturday, with better opportunities each afternoon in
the following days. It`s still too early to pick out which day may
present the greatest impacts, but the amount of moisture forecast
to move into the region by Monday would suggest good chances for
showers and thunderstorms at any point in the day early next week.

Models do diverge somewhat by the middle of next week. That being
said, there is some agreement that the ridge will begin to weaken
as a cooler weather system approaches from the north.


.AVIATION....Aside from a diurnal breeze expected after 29/1800Z
at all aviation sites, expect fair flying conditions today
through Thursday.



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