Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 251722
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1022 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN WARM TO
HOT WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE BAY AREA. SOME SUBTLE COOLING IS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INLAND. NO
BIG CHANGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE BAY AREA AND CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TODAY UNDER THESE CLEAR SKIES. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 22 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE BAY
AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE NORTH
BAY...80S TO 90S IN THE BAY AREA...90S TO 105 IN THE EAST BAY AND
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING 25
DEGREES CELSIUS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS DO
INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES
BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 0600Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS REACHING 588DM OVER THE SF BAY AREA. THIS RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE CENTER
SLIDES SOUTH WEST SUNDAY ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE TO STABLE FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:21 AM PDT FRIDAY...NORTHERLY GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE AT AROUND 4 MB FROM SFO TO ACV. SHALLOW
STRATUS THAT FORMED ALONG THE COAST AFFECTING THE MRY BAY
TERMINALS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS RETREATED TO OVER THE WATER. THE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL LIKELY PUSH MORE CLOUDS
INTO EITHER OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR TODAY...LOW CLOUDS FORMING AND
SPREADING OVER TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JULY 25TH ALONG
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED. * SIGNIFIES THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL YEARS THE RECORD WAS SET.

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION................TEMP/YEAR
 KENTFIELD...............103/1975
 SAN RAFAEL.............. 98/1975
 NAPA....................101/1975
 SAN FRANCISCO........... 82/1973
 SFO AIRPORT............. 91/1973
 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)...... 97/1973
 OAKLAND AIRPORT......... 92/1973
 LIVERMORE...............111/1980
 MOFFETT FIELD........... 90/2006
 SAN JOSE................ 99/1975
 GILROY..................109/2006

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION................TEMP/YEAR
 MONTEREY................ 83/2006
 SANTA CRUZ.............. 97/1973
 SALINAS................. 85/1975
 SALINAS AIRPORT......... 87/1973
 KING CITY...............104/1973

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:17 AM PDT FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
EXCEPT MODERATE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

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