Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KMTR 231009
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
309 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEAK TAIL END OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT TODAY...OTHERWISE MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD...BUT THEN A
SOMEWHAT WETTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. AFTER A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:09 AM PDT THURSDAY...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM NOW AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES THROUGH. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES ARE MAINLY
REMAINING NORTH OF SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL HAS YET BEEN PICKED UP BY AUTOMATED GAUGES.
EXPECT THE RAIN LINE TO SAG INTO THE NORTH BAY TODAY BUT NOT MUCH
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST...A STRONGER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT MORE OF THE DISTRICT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS WELL INTO
MONTEREY COUNTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY...WITH MUCH
LESS FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES
ACROSS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY THEN DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY ELSEWHERE. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE NORTH BAY TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KSTS...YET CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. LOW CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOW TO BURN-OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHER SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE RETURN OF STRATUS OVER
THE TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO RETURN.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH  LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 09Z.
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:05 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OFF
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OFF THE OREGON COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: W PI

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.