Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 300842
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is spinning over Ontario, Canada. Pieces of
energy will rotate around this low and will keep plenty of
moisture for Middle Tennessee today and Wednesday as the low moves
east into Quebec. This will give afternoon and evening scattered
showers and thunderstorms along a boundary extending from the
Cumberland Plateau south and west to Alabama state line. For
tonight noticed the NAM developed significant rain along the TN/KY
line. Don/t feel comfortable ignoring this feature at this
time...but will go with 30 pops instead of the likely to
categorical that the NAM had for the northern part of the
forecast area.

On Wednesday a front moves across the forecast area. Noticed that
SPC has taken Middle TN out of the marginal risk. Looking at the
instability parameters and shear there could still be some strong
storms with gusty winds and small hail. Instead of removing
everything and risking the chance that the marginal risk will be
reintroduced will keep mention of strong storms possible in the
HWO. There is the potential that a SPS or two may be needed.

Thursday looks to be the driest day for the area.

The weekend could be interesting and should be watched. The EURO
model has the potential for heavy rainfall and WPC is in
agreement. From 18Z Friday through 00Z Sunday places along and
north of Interstate 40 could get 1 to 2 inches of rain. Places
south of interstate 40 could get 1/2 to 1 inch.  With the rain
falling in over a 24 hour period hopefully the threat of flooding
will be confined to local areas where training storms develop.

Temperatures should be close to normal this week. Highs should
range from the mid 70s to mid 80s with lows being in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR to MVFR vsbys possible CSV thru 30/14Z. Otherwise, VFR thru
30/12Z. Developing weather pattern should be conducive to bkn ci
CKV thru 31/06Z, with some SCT CU/ SCT AC 31/02Z-31/06Z. A weak
cold front moves into mid state around 30/12Z, enough moisture may
pool across cntrl and srn portions of mid state allowing for cu
and ac development BNA 30/12Z-31/06Z. As this front progresses
into ern portions of mid state with expected best moisture,
instability, and diurnal orographic atm lifting influences, VCTS
CSV possible 30/18Z-31/02Z. Iso shwrs/tstms may persist thru
31/06Z, but uncertainty at this time leads to not mentioning
impact in terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  63  83  62  85 /  20  30  30  10  10
Clarksville    82  61  81  60  83 /  20  30  10  10  20
Crossville     76  57  76  56  78 /  30  30  40  10  10
Columbia       83  62  82  61  84 /  20  30  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   83  62  82  61  84 /  30  30  30  10  20
Waverly        82  62  81  61  83 /  20  30  20  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......12
AVIATION........Shamburger



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