Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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032
FXUS64 KOHX 242142
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Sunshine returned to the Mid-State today, as band of clouds
finally lifted northeast into eastern Kentucky. By 3 pm,
temperatures had climbed into the lower and middle 50s west of the
Cumberland Plateau, and 45 to 50 degrees along the Plateau itself.

Models remain consistent with the general forecast over the next
few days, with a cold front forecast to bring an increase in
clouds to western areas by late tonight, and over all of the Mid-
State during the day tomorrow. Scattered showers will also develop
over the area on Wednesday, although southerly winds promise to
keep temperatures mild. Highs tomorrow afternoon are forecast to
range from the upper 50s along the Cumberland Plateau to the lower
60s elsewhere. The forecast high tomorrow at BNA is 63 degrees.

Partial clearing takes place Wednesday night and early Thursday,
especially over western sections. However, a deck of cold air
stratocu is forecast to push southward Thursday and Thursday
night out of the Ohio River Valley and produce mostly cloudy
conditions over the majority of the Mid-State. Lows Wednesday
night go down into the middle 30s, and only undergo a modest
recovery on Thursday. A mix of rain and snow will be possible
along the northern Cumberland Plateau Thursday into Thursday
night, although only trace amounts are expected.

Clouds should gradually diminish Friday and Friday night. However,
more clouds will quickly return on Saturday and Saturday night as,
once again, an area of cold air stratocu spreads southward out of
the Ohio River Valley.

.LONG TERM...

Models still show a vigorous shortwave dropping across our area
Sunday and Sunday night, although there are certainly differences
on the timing. Boundary layer will get increasingly colder,
allowing for the chance for a shot of a rain/snow mix and a quick
shot of "all snow" by Sunday night. Right now, it looks like any
accumulation will be less than an inch. However, we`ll have to
keep an eye on this system, as models have been consistent over
the last few days with this feature, and with turning sfc
temperatures toward freezing by late Sunday and Sunday night.

Highs will probably only be in the middle and upper 30s over many
areas Sunday and Monday. However, a rapid warm-up is anticipated
by Tuesday, as winds become southerly and highs push into the
middle and upper 40s west of the Cumberland Plateau.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface ridge is working its way across Middle
Tennessee today with clouds finally eroding from SW to NE. All
terminals should be VFR by 19Z. Winds will increase overnight from
the south ahead of an approaching cold front. Low-level winds
will increase to the point that LLWS remarks are warranted during
the overnight period. Look for ceilings to drop back to MVFR
after 12Z tomorrow, with most of the expected showers holding off
until after 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  63  37  45  31 /   0  40  40  10  10
Clarksville    46  63  35  43  29 /  10  20  10  10  10
Crossville     41  57  37  40  28 /   0  50  60  20  20
Columbia       46  61  36  45  29 /   0  40  40  10  10
Lawrenceburg   45  61  36  45  29 /   0  40  40  10  10
Waverly        47  62  34  43  29 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08



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