Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 020004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
704 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT IS AT HAND. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY DID
MANAGE TO PRODUCE AN ISOL SHORT LIVED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. UPPER
RIDGING...HOWEVER...SHOULD WIN OUT WITH A TRANQUIL NIGHT AHEAD.

DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE SFC HUMIDITY. WILL OPT TO ADHERE TO THE ISC
SOURCE AND BRING SOME PATCHY FOG IN DURING THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME
PERIOD.

REMAINDER OF FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID OUT THERE ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AT PRESENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS NO ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR ONE ISOLATED SHOWER IN
MORGAN COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS.

ALTHOUGH WE STARTED METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...NO SIGNS OF IT
WILL BE SEEN ANYTIME SOON AS SUMMER WILL BE IN FULL FORCE THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO OUR
SOUTH. BASED ON THIS PATTERN...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
HOTTER AND DRIER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING FROM EAST TO WEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ADVECTS WESTWARD
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THIS OVERALL PATTERN AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  91  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     65  86  66  86 /   0  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       67  92  68  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   67  91  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        66  91  68  92 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.