Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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575
FXUS64 KOHX 111005
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
405 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY THRU SAT NIGHT)

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IN PROGRESSIVE NWLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT
BRING SOME ISO TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHWRS TO THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HRS ON FRI...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL
RAIN AS THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI PROGRESS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
FROM ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS ACROSS THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IN IN STORE FOR THE MID STATE TODAY THRU
SAT NIGHT. AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PTCLDY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. PROGRESSIVE NWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SAT NIGHT BRINING PATCHES OF SCT CLOUDINESS HERE AND
THERE WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS NOTED. AT THE SFC...
1031 MB HIGH ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY WILL INFLUENCE
THE MID STATE`S WX THRU FRI...BEFORE YET A STRONGER 1044 MB SFC HIGH
PLUNGES OUT OF SASKATOHEWAN CANADA SWD AND INTO THE ENTIRE MS RIVER
VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TN RIVER VALLEY REGIONS BY SAT MORNING...
BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS FOR TEMPS...PER EXPECTED DISSIPATION IN CLOUD COVERAGE BY AT LEAST
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...TEMPS WILL FINALLY GET ABOVE FREEZING...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S N TO UPPER 40S S...LOW TO MID 30S
PLATEAU...BUT STILL 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SPAN THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT...BEFORE
RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MODERATE WAA INTO THE
MID STATE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO JUST AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES BY FRI AFTERNOON...LOW 40S N TO AROUND
50 S...MAINLY LOW 40S PLATEAU. THAT 1044 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH TO THE MID STATE ON FRI NIGHT TO
CAUSE LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS...WITH HIGHS ON SAT FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE MID STATE NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING...UPPER
20S N TO LOWER 30S S...MID 20S PLATEAU...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE A EVEN A FEW DEGREES
COLDER THAN FRI NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS BEING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...MID TO UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...

(SUN THRU WED)

SUNDAY WILL START WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES...BUT THE CENTER OF
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 30S
SUNDAY...WITH SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE.

THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AND COMPLEX LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...HELPING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE
EAST COAST. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES HANDLING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...WE EXPECT
WINTRY PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...ACROSS THE
MID STATE WITHIN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO FORECAST
SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
AREA DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITIONS AND TRACKS OF THE FEATURES.

AFTER THE WINTRY MESS MOVES AWAY...BIG CHANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MIDWEEK (LOWS AROUND 30, HIGHS
AROUND 50)...THEN ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN
STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. LATE WEEK WILL FEEL LIKE SPRING WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE BUT NO IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SE TOWARD MIDDLE TN LEADING TO
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. CSV WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A N/NE COMPONENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  26  46  19  30 /   0  10  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    37  24  43  16  27 /   0  10  10   0   0
CROSSVILLE     34  22  42  16  23 /   0  20  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       43  25  48  19  31 /   0  10  10   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  25  49  19  31 /   0  10  10   0   0
WAVERLY        41  24  46  18  30 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........13
LONG TERM..................31



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