Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 251124
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING, BRINGING SOME RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
THINNING CLOUDS. AT 11Z, THE CLEARING LINE HAD ALREADY CROSSED THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO VFR HERE BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS CLOUDY AND COOL ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY
THIS CHRISTMAS MORNING. SANTA`S FLYING WAS A BIT TOUCH-AND-GO AS HE
NAVIGATED THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, HE HAS AN EXCELLENT NAVIGATION
SYSTEM, SO THERE`S NOT DOUBT HE`LL MANAGE ALL HIS ROOFTOP LANDINGS
WITHOUT ANY TROUBLE.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING THE MS RIVER AT
300 AM AND WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THIS SHOULD PUT THE
CLEARING LINE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, AT BNA
BY NOON AND TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON.

AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE.

WE MANAGE TO EEK OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, BEFORE OUR NEXT
FRIENDLY COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. IT PROMISES TO BE A
RATHER SLOW-MOVER, BUT SHOULD BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AS COOLER
AIR ROLLS IN. SO, BY SUNSET SUNDAY, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A CHILLY
RAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S. TEMPS WON`T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SENDS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCOOTING
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, AND KEEPS THE
CHANCE OF RAIN RUNNING EACH PERIOD. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE MID-STATE. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON`T RISE MUCH ON
MONDAY AS A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SILL
LOOKS INTERESTING, AS A CHUNK OF COLD CANADIAN AIR IS DISLODGED BY
A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AND FINALLY STARTS TO BLEED
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS HIGHLY SHEARED AND CLOSED OFF, THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE A
ROUGH ROW TO HOE TO MAKE IT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-STATE
BY WEDNESDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INDUCE A GULF
LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW, MODELS SHOW TEMPS IN THE
1000-700MB LAYER WARMING WITH TIME AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE THREAT OF A WINTRY
MIX FROM DEVELOPING OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA BY NEW YEARS EVE
AND NEW YEARS DAY. THOSE PLANNING HOLIDAY TRAVEL IN THE MID-STATE
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD SHOULD STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THINGS
DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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