Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 301801
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
101 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have cut back pops this morning into the early afternoon. By this
afternoon we should have plenty of available instability west of
I-65 and especially over northwestern Middle Tennessee. Clouds are
expected to continue to break up this morning which should allow
us to heat into the upper 70s and possibly low 80s. Look for
dewpoints to continue to surge into the 60s and further increase
instability. By 3pm cape values may be near 1500 to 2000 j/kg
with bulk shear around 40 to 50 knots over the west. This coupled
with 0-1 km helicity values of around 300 still point to a decent
severe weather with isolated tornado potential for late afternoon
through this evening. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few isolated
strong to severe storms by 3pm with coverage and intensity
increasing through 7pm. The best timing for severe looks to be
this evening from 5pm to 9pm, with the strongest storms developing
in the northwestern counties in an area of stronger shear,
instability, and an 850 jet of around 50 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Thunderstorm development is still expected later this afternoon.
While we could see some isolated storms develop by 21z at CKV and
BNA, the main timing for strong to severe storms will be from 22z
to 01z. Cigs will bounce from VFR to MVFR levels with reduced
visibilities and gusty winds within the strongest storms. CSV`s
main timing for storms will be later this evening. Cigs will
remain low throughout most of the night with light showers
lingering into early Friday morning for CSV. Winds may briefly
shift to westerly before turning back out of south early Friday
morning.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION......11



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