Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 130114
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
AT 01Z TEMPS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL INTO THE 80S AFTER
MOST AREAS SAW AT LEAST LOW 90S ACROSS THE MID STATE LOCATED OFF
THE PLATEAU. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RISING A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY
WAS DISSIPATING AND NO RETURNS WERE SEEN ON RADAR OTHER THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TN.

THE DAY SHIFT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK THUS NO CHANGES
WERE WARRANTED AS OF 01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAINLY THRU 13/24Z AS STILL SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES CONTINUE. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOG INDUCED MVFR VSBYS CKV
AND MVFR TO TEMPO IFR VSBYS CSV MAINLY BETWEEN 13/06Z-13/14Z. SCT CU...SCT/BKN
AC POSSIBLE AFTER 13/14Z AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES MOVE EWD. PER ORAGRAPHIC LIFTING AFFECTS ENHANCED...
SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE CSV AFTER 13/17Z...BUT WITH EXACT LOCATION
DEVELOPMENT HARD TO PINPOINT...WILL ADDRESS WITH VCTS REMARKS ONLY. ALSO
EXPECT AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 13/24Z...SFC
GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN WITH SUSTAINED SW WINDS/GUSTS TO 18KTS 13/17Z-13/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS TO THE MID STATE, WITH ISOLATED CELLS NOW STARTING TO FIRE
UP ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOOK FOR POP`S TO INCREASE
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE ENTIRE MID STATE IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH RAIN CHANCES LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, DRIER AIR ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12





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