Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 302344 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
644 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FOR VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 31/24Z. NLY SFC GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
SHOULD DISSIPATE PER DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCES BY
NO LATER THAN 31/03Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT-TERM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE MID STATE LAST NIGHT, AND HAS
BROUGHT A REFRESHING BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED OVER RECENT DAYS.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU OVER EASTERN AREAS
(WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAGGING DEW POINT FRONT).

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE`LL BE LOOKING AT DEW POINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S, ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. NOT A BAD WAY TO END THE MONTH OF JULY--WHICH, AS YOU
MAY REMEMBER, STARTED ON A LESS TRANQUIL NOTE WITH SOME UNUSUAL
LATE SEASON TORNADOES.

HUMIDITIES DON`T REALLY RISE MUCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY, AFTER
SURFACE WINDS FINALLY START TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

LONG_TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
VARYING AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. AFTER THAT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE A BIT. THE BEST MODEL BLEND APPEARS TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (AND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BEFORE
THEN, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BELIEVE WE COULD STILL BE LOOKING
AT SOME NWLY FLOW TSTMS PROPAGATING OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/KY AREA INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR FA. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.

MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP NOT FIGURING IN VERY MUCH UNTIL LATER ON.

ENJOY THOSE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BECAUSE THEY`LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE STICKY 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       66  90  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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