Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 041944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN OUT TO SEA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS LI/CT...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AS THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE PROGRESSES. IN
ITS WAKE...GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE COMING TO AN END.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 5 TO 7 KFT. GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. 60S IN THE URBAN
CENTERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN IT WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS.

UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO
AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO
UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR
SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS
PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH
THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL
CONFIDENCE BUILDS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD
FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRES PASSES SE OF CAPE COD THIS EVE. HI PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
W SUN.

MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT KSWF.

NNE WINDS TODAY VEER SLIGHTLY THRU 22-00Z...THEN BECOME LGT AND VRB
TNGT. W FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 12Z SUN...THEN MODIFIED SSW SEA BREEZE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.REST OF SUN...VFR WITH SSW FLOW.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. FLOW BECOMING NE.


&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE...SOUTH OF THE WATERS...DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS
OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT...MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH SUB SCA CONDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS
COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS
HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN
SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY
TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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