Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 042012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
412 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND
THEN LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA UNDER BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH A DEEPENING FULL
LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH A COLD
SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION...PRIMARILY EAST OF NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING
WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

THEREAFTER...DECREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A GRADUALLY
BACKING NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING NEAR THE SFC. THUS...THERE
IS NO MENTION OF FOG.

SMALL DIURNAL RANGES IN THIS REGIME WILL RESULT IN LOWS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO A
MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED INCLEMENT WITH A SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS SE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THU MORNING...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVENING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE OF THE AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC-85H...WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THERE IS REALLY NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER SUPPORT
TO HONE IN ON AS FAR AS TIMING OF PCPN. GENERAL THEME IS WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL
GRADUALLY ERODING...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL AROUND 50. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN A
BRIEF RESPITE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

CLOSED H5 LOW WILL MEANDER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE DELMARVA
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF SFC LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP AND LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

CLOSED LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN
EXPECT RAIN TO END AND CLEARING TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDS DRY OUT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY EVENING.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON
MONDAY...AND THEN SW FLOW SHOULD YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES LOOKS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BOTH REMAIN SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE WEST.

IFR CONDS TO START AT KEWR/KLGA/KISP AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AREA OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
KISP/KGON AND SIDESWIPE NYC METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH SOME CELLS OFF THE NJ COAST...AND THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THUNDER AT KISP...POSSIBLY
ALSO AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR. MVFR CONDS MORE
LIKELY TO RETURN A COUPLE OF HRS AFTER DAYBREAK THU AS DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW PULLS OFF A LITTLE TO THE
EAST...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF CONDS FARTHER EAST AT KGON WILL
IMPROVE.

E TO NE WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SLOWLY BACK
MORE NE TO NNE. GUSTS AROUND OR JUST OVER 20 KT LIKELY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THUNDER.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS G20 KT POSSIBLE WED
EVENING AND ALSO AT TIMES THU AND FRI.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FINALLY
BRING AN END TO DISMAL CONDITIONS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR AND NW WINDS G20KT.
.MON...VFR. W WINDS G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS DUE
TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS.

CONDS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS LI/SRN
CT. OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

1/4 TO 1/2" QPF POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

15 TO 20 KT E/ENE WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
WESTERN LONG ISLAND/NYC WHERE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE
FORECAST...SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE FOR
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS LIKELY WILL JUST
BEING REACHED ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NY
HARBOR...EXCEPT FOR THE MANHATTAN/N QUEENS/BRONX COASTS...DURING
THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 1/2 TO 1 FT
ARE LIKELY IN THOSE TWO AREAS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS E LONG ISLAND
SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...IT APPEARS DEPARTURES
WILL RUN AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF A FT BELOW LEVELS NEEDED TO
REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS THIS EVENING.

FOR THURSDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
AROUND 1/4-1/2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS EVENING...WHILE TIDAL
DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE SAME LEVELS AS THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//


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