Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 012243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO DEPART. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR MAYBE A TSTM WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...INSTABILITY IS DECREASING.
BEST CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET IF NOT BEFORE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THRU...AND LIGHT POST-FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD
LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUTLYING AREAS...WITH LOWS
55-60. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN NYC.

RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING VIA
CONTINUED COMBO OF INCOMING 3-4 FT LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SW
WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO OR ONLY A SHADE LESS WARM THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...WITH NEAR 90 INVOF NYC AND NE NJ...AND MID/UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET MOS BLEND. AS THE HIGH
SETTLES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO...60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 50S ONLY IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...AND A DEEP SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OFF IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE LOW 90S IN/AROUND NYC
AND THE URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ. MEANWHILE...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND MAY APPROACH 70 ALONG THE CT
COAST AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW ZONES AS THAT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

FRONT COMES THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TEMPS FALL BACK
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW ZONES...AND GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.
DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH BUILDS EAST AND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
LATEST MODELS HAVE THE LOW STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS EITHER OVER OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH EACH PASSING LOW. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 5 TO
10 KFT CLEAR TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS VEER AND LIGHTEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.
LIGHT NW WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. SW/S FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
WATERS UNTIL 2 AM.

INCREASING SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN AND THE
BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W AND PASSES TO THE N.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS


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