Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SUNNY AND DRY TODAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST. DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT AND BUILDING CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE ON MON. A
WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE LOCAL WEATHER. IT COULD POSSIBLY BE A
FACTOR IN THE STEERING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA NEXT WEEK. REFER
TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND
TRACK INFORMATION.

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP
LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO COME
UP WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO A LIGHT N-NE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SEABREEZES AT ALL BUT KSWF AND PROBABLY KHPN. DOUBTS INCREASING
ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF SEABREEZE...SO GENERALLY DELAYED AN HOUR
AT ALL BUT CT TERMINALS AND REMOVED FROM KHPN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEA BREEZE...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS 5 TO 10 KT
ON THE OCEAN AND AROUND 5 KT ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT AND AROUND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WITH A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...CAN EXPECT MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE MOUTH
OF NY HARBOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MALOIT/BC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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