Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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535
FXUS61 KOKX 082330
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
630 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM TO THE EAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN SPIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF WITH ONE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER AND UP TO 4 TENTHS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTING
THROUGH. WENT BELOW A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR LOW TEMPS OVER MANY
EASTERN ZONES AS SNOW AND COLDER AIR FUNNELING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
RESULTED IN TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP ENERGIZE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW...AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF JUST TO OUR SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT TREND.

FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME. HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH AND EXTRA LIFT SUPPLIED FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE INVERTED
TROUGH ULTIMATELY ENDS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LONGWAVE EASTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...PROBABLY AN INCH OR
SO...MAINLY NORTH. THE FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA MOVES
IN FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
IN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL BRING
AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO TRACK WEST
OF THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 15 TO AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE
AIRMASS MONDAY. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE ARCTIC OUT BREAK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14


     EWR   0/1979    5
     BDR  *3/2015    5
     NYC   2/1916    7
     LGA   1/1979    8
     JFK   4/1979    6
     ISP  *7/2015    4

    * ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CITY TERMINALS
00Z TO 04Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...BUT SHOULD SETTLE AT MVFR AS THE SNOW ENDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TUESDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT THIS TIME.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER AN INCH THIS
EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. THERE
COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OT 25 KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT WHILE NEARLY
MAINTAINING THE SAME CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE LOOSE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY AND STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING
THE DAY. THIS TOO MOVES SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE TIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN IN
RESPONSE TO THIS.

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WATERS. SCA LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OCEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA REMAINS UP THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND DUE TO
THIS AND SOME HIGHER 5 FT SEAS FOR EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND. OTHERWISE...NON OCEAN WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA.

THE OCEAN WILL HAVE ELEVATED SEAS MUCH ABOVE SCA FOR
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL WINDS ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY
BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW SCA WIND THRESHOLDS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. NON-OCEAN WATERS WILL STAY BELOW SCA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS THURSDAY ON THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE FIRST
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW AND AN
ARCTIC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONLY A LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO TODAYS NEW MOON AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
AFFECTING THE REGION.

STRONG OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING. WITH LOWER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS...WATER LEVELS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1/2 FT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS. EXPECTATION
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING FOR NY/NJ HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAY OF
NYC...AND WESTERN LI SOUND. MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE BAY LOCALES ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY.

FOR TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...SPRING ASTRO TIDES WILL
PEAKING. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE NE AS
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
LI AND NYC. THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST RANGE COULD COME CLOSE TO
THE WATER LEVELS REACHED THIS MORNING FOR THE BAYS OF NYC AND
WESTERN LI.

THEREAFTER...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES.

HIGH SURF OF 6 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE THREAT FOR DUNE TOE
EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES...AND A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASHES ON FIRE ISLAND. THIS IS BASED ON MODELED IMPACTS OF
GALE CENTER FROM THE USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS PORTAL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-073-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ080-081-178-
     179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
     080.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ074.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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