Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 221440
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINING
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. BUMPED UP HIGH TEMP
FORECAST AN AVERAGE OF A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM A GOOD DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS TO BE HELPING TEMPS RISE SO FAR...BUT THIS WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD BUILDUP IS FROM A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A
TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HAVE THEREFORE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR MOST SPOTS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEND TO GUSTY WINDS TODAY...UP TO AROUND
30 MPH AT TIMES.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES MAINLY DUE TO A SWELL FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL
BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
RANGE TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE NYC METRO...QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EVEN WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO PROVIDE FOR MANY CLOUDS.
EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT NW-N FLOW.

MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND AGAIN WORKED WELL FOR TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...THINKING THE HIGH
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST SFC
OBS. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL WAVER BETWEEN 290 AND 320 MAG DURING THE
DAY. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT
NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

VFR TODAY WITH SCT 3.5-4.5 KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY BKN AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE VEERING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING RIGHT
AROUND 310 MAG BEFORE BACKING TO LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH APPROACH.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.
.WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT.
.THU AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE NE/N FLOW POSSIBLE. LOW PROB OF MVFR
CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW TRACKS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS EXPECTED TO RUN 6-9 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AN
OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WIND
AND GUSTS TO 25KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING SCA IN PLACE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OTHER WATERS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ISSUE A SCA.

SEAS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES FALLING BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AND PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH BY A LITTLE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVENT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/LN
NEAR TERM...BC/JC/LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS/NV
MARINE...BC/LN
HYDROLOGY...LN





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