Area Forecast Discussion
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374
FXUS61 KPBZ 171041
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
541 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area with occasional rain
expected today. A crossing cold front will keep shower chances
through Wednesday before high pressure returns dry weather for
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A warm front continues to lift north across the area as low
pressure tracks from the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes. Periods
of rain are expected with the associated ascent, low level jet
placement and available moisture this morning. The front should be
N of the area this afternoon, though additional shortwave support
and the approach of the low`s associated cold front should
maintain high chance to likely POPs for more off and on showery
precip. Highs are expected to be around 20 degrees above seasonal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower chances should continue tonight and Wednesday as the
surface low`s associated cold front passes, and subsequent upper
troughing crosses the area. The rain could mix with snow in cold
advection Wed especially N of I 80 and in the ridges, though no
accumulation is expected. Building high pressure should result in
a return of dry weather to the forecast Wednesday night and
Thursday. Temperatures should cool behind the front, but are
still expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels
by mid week.

A deep upper trough across the Plains is progged to advance NEWD
Thursday night and Friday, and is expected to be situated from
the Upper Midwest to the OH Valley region by Friday. With decent
model agreement on deep layer moisture, ascent and upper support
increased POPs to likely for rain. Temperatures should continue to
average around 15 degrees above seasonal levels to end the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper trough should slowly exit the region through Saturday
with decreasing rain chances. Unsettled and relatively warm
weather is expected through the rest of the period as operational
and ensemble model progs indicate the development of a closed low
advancing from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley region from
Sunday through early next week. Tweaked Superblend guidance output
was used for much of the period to depict the general trends and
smooth out operation model differences.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Remaining ports with MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR
conditions or worse this morning, as an area of low pressure
spreads rain and lowers ceilings across all terminals. A period of
LLWS is expected as a low level jet works across the region above
a weak inversion.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low
pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR through early Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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