Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 301847
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
247 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms
Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Popcorn showers and storms this evening as ripples in the flow
move northeast on the back side of the mid level ridge, tapping
available low level instability. With sunset bulk of showers
will dissipate. Warm and humid overnight in southwest flow ahead
of an approaching cold front.

Large closed mid level circulation will move toward the Western
Great Lakes later Monday, with a strong shortwave moving
northeast ahead of the main low. This will help push an
occluding front across the region during the afternoon. Have
updated the HWO for the slight to enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms from SPC, with impressive wind fields, only
question remains exact timing and amount of available CAPE.

Outside of thunderstorms increasing pressure gradient with
daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds, with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The front will clear the area Monday evening, with showers
diminishing. Strong cold air advection will dive in behind the
exiting system, bringing more clouds and the risk for additional
showers. The closed circulation aloft will sweep east through
Wednesday morning with cooler temperatures and shower chances
mainly north of Pittsburgh.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement that a southern stream trough
digging into the Lower Mississippi Valley will begin to spread
moisture north toward the region by later Wednesday. Showers
will be in the forecast into Sunday as a mean mid level trough
or closed low slowly shifts northeast toward New England.
Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal
average into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated showers have developed north and east of Pittsburgh
this afternoon, as well as eastern Ohio. Still think that
coverage is too low to include precipitation mention in the TAFs
except for FKL/DUJ, which is downstream of most showers. Skies
should go mostly clear this evening and overnight, with clouds
moving in early Monday morning with a cold front later in the
day. The cold front will bring restrictions in
showers/thunderstorms to all terminals, although timing will be
after 18Z Monday at some locations. Strong south-southwesterly
winds are expected through the forecast period, with a lull in
gusts during the evening hours. This will create crosswind
issues at several sites.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible again with Thursday low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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