Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262137
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
537 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE EARLY EVE UPDATE PRIMARILY FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER AS THE FRONT HAS COMPLETED
PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. AS THE COLDER AIR
ENCROACHES THROUGH THE NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION
OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE LOW EXITS LATE THIS EVENING...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS AT ALL PORTS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07



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