Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301033
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
533 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE RISK
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A DRY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE RISK
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES WILL BE CRANKING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATIONS WERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OPTIMAL. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS.

STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRIVE
THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS MY ENTIRE CWA. THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VEERING AND
SHEAR IN THE WINDS AND ALSO THE LOWERING OF INVERSIONS. THE RIDGES
WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW SHOWERS THE LONGEST THANKS TO THE ALWAYS
PERSISTENT OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

HIGHS WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER SNOW
PRODUCING STORM SUNDAY. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SO THERE STILL IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL BE THE
FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE 21Z SREF SOLUTION
AS IT SEEMS TO BE A NICE MIX OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS. IF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK COMES TO FRUITION...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHSN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THEM GOING ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SNOW...WHILE CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE ONCE SNOW ENDS...HLG IS ALREADY
VFR. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...THINK MVFR CIGS MAINTAIN THROUGH
THE DAY. SNOW MOSTLY SHUTS OFF BY 00Z...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE
W AND NW AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016-023.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-023-074-076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-
     076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$





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