Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 241611
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1211 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of above-normal temperature and increasing chances for
rain is expected through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With noon update, primary change was to increase high
temperatures this afternoon, and may not have increased
temperatures enough. Sky cover is currently less than expected,
which has allowed for greater heating. The HRRR seemed to have
the best handle on the temperature trends over the last hour or
two, and blended in the latest run. This brings the high
temperature for Pittsburgh close to 70, and this could be
conservative. Additional cloud cover will move in from the west,
but no precipitation is expected. Southwest winds will continue
to gust to 20-30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A series of compact shortwave troughs will develop in the swrn
CONUS and eject northeastward beginning Saturday. As the first
wave acquires a negative tilt, shortwave ridging will amplify
over the Great Lakes region, leading to a likely-nwd
displacement of precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night.

Steady height falls will begin to spread across the region
Sunday morning as the ejecting wave nears. By afternoon, the
associated H5 jet maximum will cross the forecast area, likely
invigorating deeper convection with its passage amid modest
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the wake of the Sunday wave, a brief respite can be expected
on Monday amid shortwave ridging before a second trough ejects
from the Plains. This second wave will be favorable for
widespread rain showers as it crosses on Tuesday as warm, moist
air is drawn poleward ahead of the system.

Behind the wave, seasonable air is expected to arrive mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect mainly dry weather in the warm sector of a broad low
pressure system. Additional moisture will pool along a warm
front located just north of the area tonight. This could bring
restrictions with ceilings descending to low MVFR or IFR for
northern ports of FKL/DUJ.

Outlook...
The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected
until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$


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