Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222020
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL
COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FZRA RAIN ADVISORY WL RMN IN EFFECT FOR THE RIDGE ZONES OF MD AND
WV THIS EVE AS LGT PCPN CONTS TO BE AUGMENTED BY SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY REFILL IN WARM...MOIST
ADVCTN ON THE ERN FLANK OF MIDWRN LOW PRES. THAT PROCESS WL RETARD
THE DIURNAL TEMP TREND AND LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVGS WERE FORECAST USING BIAS CORRECTED MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL REMAIN A
RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THE UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENS THE SOUTHERLY DLOW AND WARM ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASOANL
VALUES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A DIGGING UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVN FM THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE
GT LKS RGN BY THU. MDL SOLNS VARY...BUT GIVEN THE DIGGING TROF
THINK THE NAM IS SGFNTLY UNDERDOING THE DVLPMNT OF SFC FEATURES...
SO SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SVRL SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE
TROF WL BRING INCRG RAIN CHCS INTO MID WK. DVLPG SFC LOW PRES IS
PROGGED TO ADVN FM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LWR GT LKS TUE NGT INTO
WED EVE. AN ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A WED EVE/NGT
PASSAGE...WITH THE UPR TROF AXIS PROGGED FOR A CHRISTMAS DAY PASSAGE.
ANY RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHG TO SNW SHWRS AS COLDER AIR
ADVCTS IN AFT FROPA...AND THE UPR TROF CROSSES...THOUGH NO SGFNT
ACCUMS ARE EXPD ATTM. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WED NGT AND THU
SHOULD ALSO BRING GUSTY WNDS.

ABV AVG ERLY TO MID WK TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO SEASONAL LVLS BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWED BOTH POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY...AND ANY CHANGES THAT
WERE MADE WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THAT...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVE...WITH GRADUAL DETERIORATION
THEREAFTER AS MIDWRN LOW PRES DEEPENS. RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHCS
WL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY...AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW
PROGRESS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEMS CDFNT WL CONT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






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