Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260722
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
322 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with chances for mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak shortwave is progged to cross the region today. Scattered
showers are expected with its approach and passage, with
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases
with daytime heating. Temperatures are expected to reach 5 to 10
degrees above seasonal levels. The near term forecast was adjusted
using the latest near term model guidance and observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending
any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is
then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture
and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the
ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and
thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to
the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the
short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and
consensus blend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and look to
be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak disturbance
today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity shower/thunderstorm"
mention will thus be maintained, but with tweaks using the latest
high resolution model runs with GFS and NAM consensus/persistence.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15



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