Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 011341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80.
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES
MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF
PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY.

ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING
IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION.
THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH
MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS
OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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