Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 291036
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
336 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS MONSOONAL FLOW RETURNS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER SHRINKS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SURGING TOWARDS SOCAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS
EVIDENCED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS. THE INITIAL
MOISTURE FRONT IS PUSHING INTO SW ARIZONA ATTM WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NOW REPORTED AT YUMA AND A CLUSTER OF CELLS EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SW AZ NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE. PWAT
SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE BETWEEN 1.6 TO
2 INCH PWATS OVER SRN AZ WILL PUSH INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...A RAPID RISE FROM YESTERDAY EVENINGS RAOB OF ONLY
0.69 AT KNKX. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE CONTINUES EVEN FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST. DEEP
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER TRAINING CELLS COULD CERTAINLY DEVELOP UNDER
THIS PATTERN SO THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WHEREVER MORE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER ACTIVITY OCCURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND
COULD POSE A RISK FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG. GIVEN MOIST FLOW AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY
WE COULD SEE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
INTO LATE NIGHT SO HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THERE.

WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CONTINUED ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
SELY FLOW THERE WILL BE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION THU AFTN AND EVNG...WITH HI RES MODELS PICKING
UP ON AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE CA...COVERAGE COULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AS WELL. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR THU AFTN AND EVNG. SLOWER
MOVING CELLS THURSDAY COULD MEAN A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SRLY FLOW CONTINUING ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHUNT THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL
HIGH EAST INTO TEXAS AND THE DEEP SOUTH AROUND MID NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION... 290930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH BASES
RANGING FROM 1300-1800 FEET MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1800-2200 FT MSL
CONTINUE FURTHER INTO THE COASTAL BASIN...CURRENTLY AFFECTING
KSAN..KCRQ...AND KSNA. EXPECT REDUCED VIS WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
INTERSECT THE LOWER COASTAL SLOPES. THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE TO THE
BEACHES BETWEEN 29/1500Z-1800Z. AFT 30/0300Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SURGE INLAND...THIS TIME A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET LOWER THAN THIS
MORNINGS STRATUS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL TAF STITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA.

MTNS/DESERTS...SLIGHT CHACNE/CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING THIS MORNIGN AT 29/1800Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CB TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. OTHERWISE...SKC BECOMING SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AFTER 29/1800Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 230 AM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT TO BEACH-GOERS
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ALSO...ELEVATED SURF OF 4-5 FEET AT THE SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES AND MOST OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH LARGE AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY THURSDAY...THE SWELL
SHOULD HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...JT


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