Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 231519
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
819 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
THE MARINE LAYER WILL REBUILD...SPREADING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG INLAND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE
ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...AND MAY DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH
COOLER AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SE
OVER THE REGION...AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A SFC BASED INVERSION AND WEAK WINDS FROM THE
SFC THROUGH 15K FT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE ABOUT 5 MBS
OFFSHORE FROM NV...AND 1-2 MBS ONSHORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS. AT 8 AM
PDT...OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF REMOTE SPOTS...WINDS/GUST REPORTS WERE
UNDER 15 MPH.

LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WARM AND DRY DAYS SHAPING UP ACROSS SOCAL
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE. ANY MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY
CONDENSE INTO PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT COLD AIR DRAINAGE DURING THE
NIGHT SHOULD PUSH IT BACK OFFSHORE BY FRI MORNING. AS THE OFFSHORE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER AND TRENDS BACK ONSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THE DRAINAGE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CLEAR COASTAL AREAS
SO FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM THEN. OTHERWISE...COOLER ON SAT AND MUCH
COOLER ON SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SW THROUGH FRI...THEN
SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE
NORTH MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BY OVER CA/NV ON
SUN MORNING...BUT CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
ROCKIES MON. THIS WILL KEEP SOCAL IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS REBOUND...THE DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE GFS RUNS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE...
WHILE THE 00Z GFS/GEM RUNS SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER SOCAL. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
231500Z...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
800 AM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...TS








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