Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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783
FXUS66 KSGX 102120
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
120 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY UNDER A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS...RESULTING IN DECREASING TEMPERATURES AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AND A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY AT 10.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH...AND
15.1 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY...WHEREAS THE GRADIENTS
WERE 12.0 MB AND 16.1 MB 24 HOURS AGO RESPECTIVELY. THIS SHOWS THAT
OFFSHORE FLOW IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. RIGHT NOW...THERE ARE LIGHT
OFFSHORE BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS IN THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS CURRENTLY...BUT THERE ARE NO WINDS STRONGER THAN
THAT. WITH THE CONTINUED RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW...IT IS ALREADY
PROVING TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD WARMTH...AS SAN DIEGO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND SANTA ANA HAVE BROKEN THEIR DAILY RECORDS
WITH TEMPERATURES OF 83 AND 88 RESPECTIVELY. STILL EXPECTING DAY-
TIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW 90S IN THE
INLAND COASTAL AREAS...THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER DESERTS...MID TO HIGH
70S AT THE BEACHES...70S IN THE LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND THE HIGH
DESERTS...AND 60S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. THUS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGING WILL THEN REBUILD OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PRODUCING NORTHEAST TO
EAST GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IN THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND PASSES/CANYONS
AT TIMES. THUS...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM-UP SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING VALUES SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE TODAY. IN FACT...MORE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW...COOLING...A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER AND POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
101600Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...A LONG-PERIOD SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY
AND PEAKING FRIDAY AT 9 FT/18 SEC WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A LITTLE STRONGER
OFFSHORE WINDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM
CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. EVEN THOUGH FUELS HAVE BEEN
DRYING THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO THE
ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS



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