Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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876
FXUS64 KSHV 270843
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
343 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A sfc ridge has settled in across the Four-State region early this
morning, resulting in light and variable/calm sfc winds and clearing
conditions. Yesterdays line of precipitation has provided the region
with beneficial rainfall and thus with clearing skies and light sfc
winds early this morning, would not be surprised if patchy fog
develops towards daybreak. Any lingering fog will scour out by
mid-morning whilst the sfc ridge exits east of the region. Sfc
lee troughing across the Central/Southern Plains will aid to veer
sfc winds to the southeast this aftn, but the cool airmass will
not be completely dislodged as daytime temps will be in the 70s
with a few 80s.

Temps will make a tremendous rebound tomorrow as highs soar into
the 80s /with perhaps a few lower 90s across the southern zones/,
courtesy of a retreating warm front that will settle across
southeastern OK, southwest AR and extreme northeast TX. The once
slightly dry airmass will also recover with PWATS increasing from
less than 1.00 inch to between 1.30-1.50 inches by tomorrow aftn
thanks to the warm front. Model solutions continue to hint at the
potential for shower and thunderstorm development along and north
of the warm front, where locales south of the front will be
encompassed by high CIN/strong CAP and thus rather slim precip
chances. Additionally, it is interesting to note that MUCAPE is
progged to increase to >2000 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values of
40-60 kts along and north of the front is anticipated by late
Friday aftn. This raises concern for the potential of some of the
storm activity to become strong to severe, with hail and gusty
winds the primary threats /though can not rule out isolated
tornadoes with any sfc-based convection nearest to the warm
front/.

Attention will quickly turn to a northwest Pacific UA trough that is
progged to gradually close off while digging east-southeast to
across the Four-Corners region tomorrow night, to across the
Southern Plains Saturday night and then the center ejecting
northeast to across the Central Plains towards the Great Lakes
region Sunday night/Monday morning. Due to long term solutions
having come into much better agreement with how this system will
propagate, the models exhibited scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing ahead of the systems cold front mid-
morning Saturday/early aftn across portions of southeast OK,
extreme northeast TX and southwest AR, with a line of storms
moving in from west to east Saturday late evening through Sunday
late aftn/evening. The CWA will be rain-free by Sunday late
evening/night. Significant instability /MUCAPE > 3000 j/kg/ and
being encompassed by a warm moist sector will once again raise
concerns for strong to severe storms. Initial thought is that
although adequate deep layer shear will exist /0-6 km bulk shear
of 30-45 kts/, isolated tornadoes will not be a primary threat as
precip in a linear mode typically encourages damaging wind gusts
and large hail. Nonetheless, any discrete cells that are able to
develop ahead of the front or any development of bowing segments
along the leading edge of the line of storms could pose a threat
for isolated tornadoes. Furthermore, this event is also shaping up
to become a moderate to heavy rainfall maker, with The Weather
Prediction Center hinting at rainfall totals of 1.50-5.00 inches
valid from 12Z Thursday through 12Z Tuesday, with highest totals
noted across southeast OK, southwest AR, extreme northeast TX and
extreme northwest LA. Given yesterday/s event resulted in rainfall
amounts ranging from 0.50-2.00 inches /which is not overly
significant/ and the fact that many locales are still several
inches below norm so far this year, this upcoming rainfall event
will likely be well received by the soils. Nonetheless, the
issuance of a flooding product may be needed in the next 24 hours
or so. Thereafter, relatively quiet wx will ensue with a quick
shot at light precip by mid-week due to the quick passage of an UA
shortwave trough.

Temps will cool into the 60s and 70s by Sunday as CAA gets ushered
in by the fropa. A gradual warmup will occur early next week with
highs warming into the 70s and 80s by Tuesday, before dropping back
into the 70s by Thursday, due to Wednesday/s anticipated precip
and fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  61  86  73 /   0  10  20  30
MLU  73  61  85  72 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  74  56  79  70 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  74  58  82  72 /   0  10  30  40
ELD  74  57  84  72 /   0  10  20  30
TYR  77  64  87  74 /   0  10  20  30
GGG  76  63  87  74 /   0  10  20  30
LFK  82  65  89  77 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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