Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281142
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. HIGH LVL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST. ELY SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SLY BY THE 29/12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE ERN U.S...LEAVING US UNDER WEAK NELY FLOW. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EDGING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR ISOLD CONVECTION...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-20. THE FRONT WILL STALL/WASH
OUT AS ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE E.

THE SRN U.S. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
AS THE ERN U.S. TROF IS CUT OFF AND IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WWD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL HELP MOISTURE TO RECOVER JUST IN TIME FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH NOTHING TO HELP SHIFT THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HELP TO
KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGHOUT THE FCST PD. ANY CONVECTION WILL FURTHER AID THIS
EFFECT...AND IT SEEMS SAFE TO SAY THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST OF
THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR THIS YEAR. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  69  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  91  66  95  67 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  89  67  91  68 /   0  10  20  10
TXK  89  67  92  70 /   0   0  20  10
ELD  89  64  94  67 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  92  72  92  72 /   0   0  20  10
GGG  91  70  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  93  69  94  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



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