Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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781
FXUS64 KSHV 011947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AVIATION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO MVFR CLOUDS AND
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE CONVECTION. EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT...THEN FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY AND WIND SHIFT NUDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAYBREAK. MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO VFR IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 7 KNOTS WITH THE
TROUGH AND NORTHEAST TO NORTH AROUND THE BACK OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MANY OF THE SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS SITES AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH THEN RETURN TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THE REMAINING TERMINAL SITE OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  74  54 /  20  40  50  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  30  60  70  40
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  50  30  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  50  30  10
ELD  83  61  72  53 /  20  40  50  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  20  40  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  20  40  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  30  60  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/07



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