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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271744
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS developed earlier this morning at ktyr for a few hours,
before scouring out with an ensuing MVFR deck at klfk /which will
likely last for another hour so/ suggests that low level moisture
is making a return to the region. VFR is expected throughout the
aftn with east- southeast sfc winds of 5-8 kts expected. Isolated
showers have commenced to develop near kshv and west of ktyr. Some
high- res computer models are a bit aggressive with how this
convection will evolve but elected to insert -SHRA VCTS at klfk
and VCTS at ktyr seems reasonable at this time. Will of course
amend as necessary. Shortly after sunset, the convection will
diminish and we will see light and variable /and at times calm/
winds affect the terminals with SCT VFR CIGS. Computer models hint
at slightly lesser VFR CIGS overnight which was the mitigating
factor for fog and stratus development last night. Have therefore
introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR CIGS and fog at ktyr and klfk
and more MVFR fog at kggg. If VFR cloud cover is a little bit
thicker than anticipated then this TEMPO group will be moot and an
amendment will be required, however if cloud cover is mainly SKC,
conditions may deteriorate a bit further than expected. Will need
to play this by ear and amend if necessary. Otherwise, any
lingering fog or low clouds will scour out by midnight whilst sfc
winds return to a southeasterly flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1100 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Overall, the forecast looks largely on track. Temperatures have
warmed very quickly this morning, so high temperatures were raised
by a few degrees across much of the area. However, increasing
cloud cover through the remainder of the day should slow the rate
of warming slightly. Minor adjustments were made to the PoP grids
as well, mainly to decrease and trim them back through 18z today.

CN

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
WV imagery this morning shows upper ridge axis over the Mountain
West, with upper trof over the ern CONUS. Our region under weak
but disturbed nwly flow aloft. Disturbance along the TX Gulf Coast
providing shwrs/tstms along the coastline, and these are expected
to gradually increase as the disturbance cuts off and drifts ewd
through midweek. As a result, we will see gradually increasing
coverage of shwrs/tstms, especially during peak heating, through
Thursday.

Another trof/cold front will begin to sag swd into our
region Friday, and looks to bring some better coverage of
convection for areas along and n of I-20 through Sunday. Rain
chances to diminish Tuesday, as trof departs to the e and the
upper ridge begins to nose into TX.

Overall, temps to remain slightly below seasonal normals due to
present soil moisture and the possibility for convection most
days. However, trends for day 7 and beyond show the ridge
migrating ewd, which may signal the arrival of more typical
ArkLaTex summertime temperatures. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  90  73  88 /  10  10  10  40
MLU  69  90  72  87 /  10  20  10  50
DEQ  68  89  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  70  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  68  89  72  87 /  10  10  10  40
TYR  72  89  74  89 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  71  89  73  89 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  72  89  73  89 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/09/12