Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221701
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1101 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FASTER IN NE TX...WHERE 10 AM READINGS
ALREADY INTO LOWER 60S IN STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND SHALLOWER MOISTURE.
RAISED DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS NE TX...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...TO
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TODAY...LEFT IN ISOLD FOR MOST OF LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA.ADDED 30
PERCENT...WITH ISOLD THUNDER...FOR NE PORTION OF CWA...AS 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT KLZK AND KJAN BOTH INDICATED NOTICABLY DEEPER
MOISTURE THAN AT KSHV./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS 10
KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS TERMINAL SITES TODAY...
WITH 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS SITES. WINDS TO
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 23/06Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SCT SHWRS THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LEAD SHORTWAVES MAINLY ACROSS THE
NE HALF OF THE CWA. SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SHARPENING COLD FRONT TO OUR NW AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA FLIRT
WITH 70 DEGREES F THIS AFTERNOON.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DIG SHARPLY SEWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND LOOK TO BE VERY GOOD EAST OF A LINE FROM KLFK TO
PRESCOTT AR FOR TUESDAY...POPS WILL INCREASE FARTHER EAST. VAST
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MINIMAL. OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE LOW AS WELL BUT A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TX
COAST AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SOUTH OF A NACOGDOCHES-MONROE LINE.

PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EFFECTS
AND SPEED OF DRY SLOTTING ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH NLY
FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LVLS MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH COOLING TO SUPPORT A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW AR BEFORE ALL
THE PRECIP ENDS. THIS IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN BUT ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP OCCURS AND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY AND NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LVLS FOR THURSDAY AND
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CONSIDERABLY WETTER AND ITS FCST
DOES REFLECT WELL THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LAST FEW MAJOR STORM
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT
SATURDAY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  49  55  38  49 /  20  20  50  30  10
MLU  66  50  59  39  51 /  30  30  70  60  10
DEQ  61  41  53  32  47 /  20  20  40  20  10
TXK  62  46  53  36  47 /  20  20  40  20  10
ELD  62  46  55  36  49 /  30  30  50  40  10
TYR  69  47  52  38  48 /  10  20  40  10  10
GGG  68  47  53  37  49 /  10  20  40  20  10
LFK  71  51  57  38  50 /  10  20  40  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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