334
FXUS64 KSHV 151802
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
102 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Mostly dry conditions will prevail through at least Thursday
   morning, with only slight chances across our northern zones
   today.

 - Heat Advisories return on Tuesday and may extend into
   Wednesday.

 - All eyes remain hyper-focused on the tropics as there is a 40%
   chance of some tropical development across the northern Gulf
   Coast by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Although radar imagery has gone quiet early this afternoon, models
continue to suggest the idea that there could be some isolated
convection across our northern zones this afternoon so I have
maintained some mention of PoPs across this area through this
evening. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions have settled in to the
region and will remain in place through at least Thursday morning.
Despite the heat today, I have elected to lay in the bed we made
and not issue a Heat Advisory for this afternoon as I still think
we will be borderline at best. I was on the fence for Wednesday
too, and after some consideration, I decided to go with a Heat
Advisory for portions of our eastern zones. Please see the latest
headlines for details on exact location. Pretty good chance that
Heat Advisories could be extended into Thursday for some portions
of the area as heat index values will remain at critical levels.

Our next good chance of any precipitation for portions of our area
won`t come till later in the week and in the form of tropical
moisture. There is some uncertainty with this system, especially
with the model runs today. I don`t think models will start to
level out till the system is fully in the Gulf and we can see how
it starts to interact with the waters there. Regardless, NBM
continues to show increased rain chances from the system late
Thursday and into Friday, but the overall theme of location and
timing will be refined through the week as the picture becomes
more clear. This system will also play a major role in what our
temperatures this upcoming weekend will look like, so just
continue to monitor the forecast for the latest. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, just a slight chance for a few
shwrs/isold TS at KLFK with the mid aftn sea breeze. Also at KELD
near a departing upper low. Otherwise, just a touch of MVFR at
KLFK 12-15Z. Winds today are SW 5-10 and a few gust, then backing
overnight to S/SW 5KT or less. Wednesday will prevail SW 10KT
again with an even drier day. However, the Gulf looks to open for
widespread convection later this week with an inverted trough
movg W along the LA/TX coast. /24/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through
tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  79  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  94  77  96  76 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  90  72  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  94  76  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  92  74  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  92  74  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  94  75  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  93  74  93  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ005-006-
     013-014-019>022.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24