Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 310433
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Cluster of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms were
affecting ktxk tonight, with the activity gradually moving to the
Northeast. Do not expect this precipitation activity to remain
there all night given its` slow Northeastward translation, but
additional development is not out of the question. Will therefore
hold on to -SHRA VCTS for several more hours. Otherwise, once the
showers finally dissipates/exits the region, another round of VFR
to IFR fog and MVFR to IFR CIGS will be possible overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 923 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
outflow boundary bisecting area from ne half to sw half. leaving
in isold pops ne half given current isold activity which began to
diminish at sunset. leaving out pops sw half of area. 0z sounding
at kshv not impressive for convection either overnight. Expect
temps to fall to near current dewpoints mainly in the upper 60s, from
current temps mainly near the mid 70s attm./vii/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cirrus continues to thin from the large morning MCS, but now
is being added to by a line of Thunderstorms along the old outflow
boundary from SW AR into N and central LA which is lifting to the
Northeast and well out of the CWA by tonight. There is also a bit
of new popcorn over NE TX near Lindale, Yantis and Mineola, but
overall trends may trickle out sooner than last night. However,
some additional heating this afternoon will allow this and other
areas to perhaps expand and cluster in the upper 80s. The upper
level shear axis is showing up well on the water vapor and is
over the heart of the area this mid afternoon moving East.

The overall pattern remains unsettle to our West and the
nocturnal boundary machine will linger as the next upper low is
over AZ and only moving East very slowly. It will weaken, but
lower heights over the TX coastal bend keep us in a favorable slot
for moisture off the Gulf with heating. Also the cool front will
take all week to get here by Sunday. Looks like June will be
wetter than average to start, but quite manageable. The higher
totals will be well to our SW looking at the WPC 5 and 7 day
outlooks. The SPC does well to keep a general Thunderstorm outlook
to start the week with abundant daytime heating to continue. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  88  70  86 /  20  20  30  40
MLU  69  89  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  66  84  67  82 /  20  30  50  70
TXK  67  87  68  82 /  20  30  40  60
ELD  67  89  66  84 /  20  30  30  40
TYR  69  86  69  83 /  10  20  40  70
GGG  67  87  68  84 /  10  20  40  60
LFK  67  87  68  85 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/24



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