Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 201317
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
717 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 20/12Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR for KELD and
KMLU to start the forecast with these sites becoming MVFR and then
detiorate to IFR in the late afternoon. Will prevail IFR for
remaining sites across East and Northeast Texas and adjacent
Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana which includes KTYR,
KGGG, KLFK, KTXK and KSHV. As moisture works East across the
region, light rain or drizzle along with mist/BR will be producing
visibility restrictions with all sites prevailing with mostly IFR
flight categories through the remainder of the forecast period.
Surface winds will be South 8-15 knots with higher gusts of 15-20
knots. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Warm air advection showers of lgt rain have been developing,
mainly south of I-20. A very steep west to east dewpoint gradient
has set up with patchy fog and drizzle close to I-35, which may
spread into portions of ne TX durg the mrng where dewpoints in the
upper 40s contrast dewpoints still in the 20s across eastern
portions of the area. Keeping pops low for measurable rainfall
today and this wave of enhanced low lvl moisture will shift east
overnight. Deep upper trough to the west will bring moisture back
into the mid lvls and increase instability durg the day Sunday.
Keeping pops in chance areawide until Sunday eve when convection
will increase. stg low lvl sw flow creating the shear and the
storm training bringing the potential for both locally heavy
rainfall and stg gusty winds in storms. this rainfall will quickly
move east of the MS river durg the Monday morning with dry zonal
flow dominating until late week when an short wave upper low
brings a possibility of rain back to the area into the first part
of the upcoming wknd. In this zonal flow the temperature diurnal
swing will bring seasonally mild mostly sunny days, and cool
nights into the 30s, but mainly above the frzg mark for portions
of the area south of I-30. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  59  73  48 /  20  10  50  80
MLU  66  56  74  55 /  30  10  30  80
DEQ  61  56  68  41 /  20  10  60  70
TXK  62  57  70  45 /  20  10  50  80
ELD  63  57  71  48 /  20  10  40  80
TYR  67  60  72  44 /  20  10  60  70
GGG  67  59  73  45 /  20  10  50  80
LFK  69  61  75  48 /  20  20  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07



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