Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 302302
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
602 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered convection continuing across Southeast
Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas and portions of northern Louisiana
early this evening. More favorable upper level support resides
across SW Ar and for this reason...have kept VCTS riding for a few
more hours at the TXK/ELD and MLU terminals. Convection should
begin weakening in coverage and intensity over the next couple
hours. After 04z...all we should be dealing with is convective
debris cloud cover in the mid and high levels.

Otherwise...cu field should get going once again with the aid of
daytime heating on Sunday with the possibility of widely scattered
convection once again across the region. The more favorable
terminals to see any activity on Sunday appears to be the TXK/
ELD and MLU terminals but chances appear to limited attm to
add this qualifier in the 00z terminal package this evening.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level shortwave across eastern OK/western AR has provided for
large scale ascent with ample lift to generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Due to the placement of the trough, most of the
convection is confined along and north of I-30 but some additional
showers and storms have developed farther south across east Texas
and north Louisiana. A few storms north of I-30 have even become
severe across SE OK/SW AR near the base of the shortwave trough
where lift is stronger, sufficient to produce quarter size hail.
Expect a general downward trend in convection later this evening
as heating is lost with sunset, and slight chance pops will cover
any lingering showers/storms through the late evening/overnight
period.

The upper ridge along the Gulf coast will become more influential
on Sunday with mostly diurnal convection during the afternoon and
early evening hours, mainly in south Arkansas and north Louisiana.
The strengthening upper ridge across the region will spell hotter
and drier conditions for the upcoming week. Rain chances will not
be eliminated entirely, but expect only isolated coverage during
the daytime hours of peak heating. The climb in temperatures back
into the upper 90s will likely warrant heat advisories once again
for much of the week. Aside from that, the only other focus will
be close monitoring of the tropics as one disturbance now entering
the Caribbean may approach the Yucatan by the end of the week.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  77  96 /  20  20  10  20
MLU  74  94  76  95 /  20  30  20  30
DEQ  72  94  74  95 /  20  30  10  20
TXK  75  95  77  96 /  20  20  10  20
ELD  73  94  76  95 /  20  30  10  30
TYR  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  76  96  77  97 /  20  20  10  20
LFK  75  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/13



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