Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 311222
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
722 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT KLFK...WHERE BR HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS. A
WEAK SFC FRONT HAS FINALLY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND DRY WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SFC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX...INTO DEEP
E TX AND OVER S LA AS OF 08Z...WITH A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT IN
ISODROSOTHERMS BACKDOORING SW INTO EXTREME NE TX TO NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N LA INTO CNTRL MS...INDICATIVE OF THE DRIER AIR THAT
LIES TO THE N AHEAD OF SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL MO AND NRN AR. A
CONSIDERABLE AC FIELD THAT LINGERS OVER THE REGION HAS NOT ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN...BUT THIS SHOULD THIN LATER THIS MORNING AS THE DRY AIR WEDGE
DEEPENS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC FRONT. WHILE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HELP SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF TEMPS TODAY /AND FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 7 DAYS...NO TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS FOR A CHANGE/...THE
MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE MUCH LOWER RH/S...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPS. STILL FEEL THE HOTTEST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE W AND SW SECTIONS OF E TX...BUT
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BASK IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AS THE DRIER AIR MASS LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD FARTHER S INTO AR SATURDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE A LIGHT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS HIGH
RH/S AFTERWARDS. UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT PLAYER
IN OUR ONGOING HEAT WAVE FOR MUCH OF JULY WILL TEMPORARILY RETREAT
OFF TO OUR W OVER W TX INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY EXPANDING BACK E TO
THE MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
NUDGE CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY...WITH
TRIPLE DIGITS A GOOD BET ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT. DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES SHOULD
AGAIN BE OF CONCERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH THE RETURN
OF HIGHER RH/S...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT IN THE FORM OF
RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

HOWEVER...THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SEABREEZE MAY
PENETRATE FAR ENOUGH INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/N LA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
RIDE THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SW AR AND NCNTRL LA. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENCE
IN TEMPS WILL RULE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  69  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  94  65  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  96  69  98  70 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  98  68  97  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20


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