Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 101422 AAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
922 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014
The forecast was updated to increase rain chances across our southwestern
counties today. Radar shows a small but persistent area of rain
showers over Crockett County, with other new showers developing around
this area of precipitation. Cloud cover associated with the upper low
and trough over the region will likely persist through the day
across the southern half of West Central Texas, and through much of
tonight across our southern and southeastern counties, until the upper
low and trough axis shift east. The forecast was also updated to
carry increased cloud cover across these areas.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/
Mostly mid-level clouds will continue to work their way into the
southern half of West Central Texas through early afternoon. Another
surge of low to mid-level moisture will occur tonight with ceilings
degrading to MVFR at the southern terminals after midnight. The
northern terminals should remain VFR through the 24 hour period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/
(Today and Tonight)
A closed upper low located well southwest of the Texas Big Bend
region early today will move east through tonight across southern
Texas. Mid-level clouds will stream northward over most of the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area ahead of this upper level
system. As the upper level system moves further east overnight,
skies will clear over most of the area by tomorrow morning.
Afternoon highs over the northern two-thirds of West Central Texas
will be in the mid to upper 70s with upper 60s over the Interstate
10 corridor which will experience more cloud cover. Morning lows
tomorrow will be mostly in the mid to upper 40s.
(Tuesday through Sunday)
I didn`t make in major changes to the long term. I did adjust
temperatures slightly for a few periods to bring them into better
agreement with the latest MOS guidance. Compression on Tuesday,
ahead of this next front, will create afternoon highs well above
seasonal normals, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. As the front moves
quickly south Tuesday night, plan for north surface winds ranging
from 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 45 mph possible. Over the higher
elevation areas just south of our Interstate 20 corridor, gusts near
60 mph are possible for a couple hours after midnight Tuesday night.
Wind gusts in these ranges would require at least a Wind Advisory.
Vehicles, especially high-profile, may encounter hazardous driving
conditions Tuesday night. On Wednesday, I`m expecting sustained
surface winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. The GFS brings a weak front
south across West Central Texas Friday afternoon and Friday evening.
However, the ECMWF doesn`t. Both models do bring a stronger front
across West Central Texas Sunday. The GFS is more aggressive with
QPF on Sunday. Nevertheless, given my low confidence regarding rain
potential, I decided to continue a dry forecast for now.
Expect elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. Southwest to west 10-15 mph 20 foot
winds ahead of a cold front, together with afternoon relative
humidities less than 20 percent, will result in dangerous fire
weather conditions over most of West Central Texas.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 50 85 41 59 / 5 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 73 47 86 43 60 / 10 10 0 0 0
Junction 68 46 83 46 60 / 20 10 0 0 0