Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 020445
AFDSJT
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites. Area of
showers and thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle and northwest
of Lubbock is on a weakening trend, and is expected to dissipate
overnight northwest of our area. High cloud cover from this
convection will overspread much of our area overnight. Similar
to yesterday, the GFS and NAM continue to show differences
regarding potential low cloud development during the late night
and early morning hours for parts of our area. The NAM is more
aggressive with this scenario. However, given the lack of low
cloud development which occurred early this (Monday) morning,
prefer not to carry any ceilings. At this time, have a scattered
low cloud mention at our southern TAF sites between 11Z and 15Z.
Similar to what occurred today, may have a VFR-based cumulus
field over our far east and southeast counties on Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will veer to the south overnight at 5-10 knots
at KABI and KSJT, while remaining light at our southern TAF
sites. South winds will increase on Tuesday, with gusts to 20
knots expected at KABI and KSJT by late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites. Scattered
convection developing across parts of eastern and northeastern New
Mexico may move southeast into parts of the Texas Panhandle and
far west Texas, but is expected to dissipate to the west/northwest
of our area later tonight. Some high cloud cover emanating from
this convection will spill into our area tonight into Tuesday.
The GFS and NAM show similar differences to yesterday, regarding
potential low cloud development during the late night and early
morning hours for parts of our area. The NAM is more aggressive
with this scenario. However, given the lack of low cloud
development which occurred early this (Monday) morning, prefer
not to carry any ceilings. At this time, have a scattered low
cloud mention at our southern TAF sites between 11Z and 15Z.
Similar to what occurred today, may have a VFR-based afternoon
cumulus field over our far east and southeast counties on Tuesday.
South-southeast winds this evening will decrease tonight. South
winds will increase on Tuesday, with gusts to 20 knots expected
at KABI and KSJT by late morning.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

Latest model runs are bringing an upper disturbance embedded in the
north-northwest flow aloft a little further east of our eastern Big
Country tomorrow than previous runs. As a result, any associated
precipitation should remain east of the area and the current dry
forecast will continue. Generally light southerly surface winds will
continue through tomorrow with the 850mb thermal ridge over West
Texas edging a little further to the east. Therefore, expect warmer
temperatures than today with highs tomorrow in the upper 80s to
around 90. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s.

15

LONG TERM...

Dry conditions and a slight warming trend highlight the long term
forecast. Models continue to build an upper ridge over Texas by
late week. Temperature guidance numbers from the MEX MOS product
still look a little too warm. Plus, vegetation moisture release will
help moderate temperatures. Thus, highs mainly in the 90 to 95
range look good through this weekend and into the start of next
week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene          66  89  67  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   0
San Angelo       66  92  67  92  68 /   5   5   0   0   0
Junction         66  89  67  89  68 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99








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