Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 100454
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
No major changes to the previous set of TAFs. Winds will remain
light through the next 24 hours, slowly veering to the southeast
and then south. There are quite a few mid and upper level clouds
across the area late tonight, but drier air is moving in from the
north and northeast. Visibility values have gone under 10 SM at
KSJT and KSOA at times this evening, so may add a TEMPO group for
lowered VSBYs towards 12Z for this possibility. 20
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
Have updated zone forecast for this evening. Cold front is now
located over the Interstate 10 corridor and last vestiges of
precipitation is coming to an end over the forecast area. Dry
forecast for the remainder of the night.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all sites.
There will be some VFR CIGS out there through tomorrow morning.
A cold front has moved through KABI and KSJT, and will move
through the rest of the TAF sites in the next few hours. There
are a few isolated showers that are diminishing at this hour, so
will not mention in this forecast cycle. Winds of around 10 knots
or less will remain generally northeast through tomorrow morning,
before turning southeasterly by early afternoon Saturday. VFR
clouds will gradually clear through tomorrow. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
(Tonight and Saturday)
A cold front continues to make progress to the south through west
central TX this afternoon. As of 3 PM the front is south of I-20,
leaving in its wake north winds of 10-20 mph and temperatures in
the low/mid 70s. Scattered showers will continue to trail the
front this afternoon, eventually dissipating around sunset.
Instability is limited and no lightning has been observed this
afternoon, but a few weak thunderstorms aren`t out of the
question. Isolated showers were maintained through 10 PM. Expect
winds to become light and variable by late evening, with mid-level
cloud cover thinning from north to south overnight. The coolest
temperatures tonight are expected north of I-20, where the mercury
could briefly dip into the upper 50s. Otherwise, expect overnight
lows in the lower 60s.
Dry weather is anticipated for Saturday with temperatures
rebounding back into the low to mid 80s. A few of the hi-res CAMS
were indicating isolated showers Saturday afternoon, but this has
typically been overdone in cases of weak forcing and limited
instability. We`ll more than likely only see a scattered cu field.
Winds will veer around the dial tomorrow, becoming southeasterly
by early afternoon and remaining under 10 mph.
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Very warm temperatures are expected for our area Sunday with
mostly sunny skies, south-southwest winds and 850mb thermal ridge
building into our area. High temperatures are expected to be in
the lower to mid 90s, and favor the warmer GFS MOS guidance.
An upper trough will move through the Midwest and into the Great
Lakes on Monday, with trailing portion of associated cold front
moving south across West Central Texas. Timing of the front will
have an effect on high temperatures. This front should arrive soon
enough in the day to limit high temperatures to the mid to upper
80s across our northern counties, with lower 90s expected for the
southern part of our area. Surface pressure rise field indicated
behind this front suggests several hours of gusty north-northeast
winds following its passage Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Cooler air will follow passage of this front, but will be short-
Warm and dry conditions are indicated Wednesday through Friday of
next week for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to be
centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. on
Wednesday, and to subsequently shift east over Texas on Friday.
For that time period, high temperatures expected to be around 10
degrees above normal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 84 65 94 / 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 62 86 63 95 / 10 5 0 0
Junction 63 87 64 93 / 10 5 5 5