Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 252336
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours, with south to southeast winds generally 12 KTS
or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, a shortwave trough was traversing the northern central
CONUS. A few clouds have developed across the south this afternoon,
in a region of slightly better moisture, where current mesoanalysis
shows PWATs at or above 1 inch. These clouds will dissipate after
sunset, with lows tonight generally in the lower to mid 70s.

For tomorrow, the northern trough will continue moving towards the
Great Lakes. This will help displace the mid-level ridge currently
centered over the panhandle, further west into New Mexico by
tomorrow evening, helping nudge the 850mb thermal axis slightly
west. This results in a slight cooling of 1-2 deg C area-wide. Areas
north of Interstate 20 will be in closer proximity to the mid-level
high, with highs near 100 degrees, cooling to the upper 90s farther
south near Interstate 10.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Through Friday)

The main focus of the long term is still the northwest flow next
week. We have been watching a trough that is forecast to drop into
the northeast US next week. The GFS is a little deeper with the
trough than the ECMWF. Either way, both solutions bring northwest
flow and chances for rainfall into the area starting Monday night.
This will mainly be north of Interstate 20. The main storm track
still looks to be north of the area along the Red River. However,
outflow from this convection will push south bringing a chance for
new development.

Later into the week, both models are hinting at several chances for
an MCS to move into the area. The EC has been wetter, showing a
stronger shortwave along the western edge of the trough that will
move southwest into west Texas. The best chances for rain will be
Wednesday and Thursday, however with the northwest flow continuing
there is least some chance for rain through the rest of the week.

Otherwise, temperatures will cool as the upper level ridge that has
been baking West Central Texas moves west into the Four Corners
region. High temperatures will return to more normal values in the
mid 90s by mid week, with the chance for lower 90s and even some
upper 80s north of Interstate 20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  76  99  76 /   0   0   5   0   5
San Angelo  72  99  74  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  97  75  97  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04






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