Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 300437
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1137 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015


.AVIATION...
/05Z TAFS/

Convective activity over the central portion of West Central
Texas should still ongoing at KSJT by the time of TAF issuance
with conditions improving soon after. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue over the northern terminals through the next 24
hours with ceilings lowering to MVFR at the southern terminals
after daybreak and improving to VFR by late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Increased POPs for the overnight period.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a northwest
moving outflow boundary across portions of the Heartland and
eastern Concho Valley late this evening. Another area of showers
and thunderstorms over northwest Texas is drifting south towards
the Big Country. Latest HRRR brings this activity southwest
across the western Big Country overnight but is of little help
with the convection over eastern sections. Should see the
convection over eastern sections linger for a few more hours,
while convection farther north may linger well into the overnight
hours as it continues to drift south with time.

POPs were increased generally north of a Sweetwater to San Saba
line for the overnight period. No severe weather is expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible due to slow moving cells
and PW values in excess of 1.5 inch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

An interesting forecast setup is in place for tonight. This
afternoon, an outflow boundary stretched from Elk City, Oklahoma to
near Lubbock. South of this boundary, dewpoints are in the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Water vapor analysis also shows a mid-level vorticity
maximum diving south along the Colorado/Kansas border. This
disturbance will enter the Panhandle by evening, at which time
models develop convection across that area. With northerly flow
aloft, any convection which develops here will dive south across the
region. Additionally, mainly southeast surface winds will persist
overnight, helping maintain good low to mid level convergence into
the thunderstorms as they dive south.

For Tuesday, the overnight convection is expected to diminish by mid
morning. Outflow boundaries from this may set up across our
southeast counties, which may help act as a focus for
showers/thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A tropical
disturbance moving through South Texas may also aid in thunderstorm
development across this area. As a result, POPs were retained
through the afternoon for areas south of a Sonora to Brownwood line.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Not too much has changed from previous forecasts for the long term
period. An amplified upper-level ridge across western parts of the
country will build east, stretching from the west coast to the
southeastern states for the middle of the work week. This will
result in subsidence aloft and lower surface dewpoints, effectively
ending our precipitation chances for a couple of days. During this
time, a decrease in cloud cover and rising upper-level heights will
allow afternoon high temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s.

For Friday through the weekend, the ridge to our north will weaken
and break into two pieces, with one piece remaining across the
Intermountain West, and another center of high pressure located over
the southeast states. In between these features, a weak cold front
will approach the area from the north. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along/ahead of it, which may affect the area
for the holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  10   5   0
San Angelo  92  71  92  70  93 /  10  20  10   5   5
Junction  90  71  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99




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