Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281154
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
554 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings with some intermittent MVFR visibility values have
moved into areas south of Interstate 20 early this morning. KABI
may see some MVFR ceilings before 15Z, and will have a TEMPO group
there to cover that. Will also have TEMPO groups for KJCT for
potential IFR CIGs at times before 16Z this morning. Visibility
values may also diminish to the 3SM to 5SM range at times between
12Z and 16Z, mainly south of Interstate 20. Conditions will
improve rapidly between 15Z and 18Z later this morning as drier
southwest winds move into the area. Will see winds pick up to 10
to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots at times through the
afternoon hours. Winds will diminish quickly around 00Z. A cold
front will move through tonight turning winds to the
north/northwest after 06Z at KABI, and between 06Z and 12Z for
the rest of the sites. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Near record highs and Critical Fire weather conditions...

A strong upper level trough that extends from the Pacific
Northwest south into southern CA will move toward the area today.
Ahead of this trough increasing flow aloft will move in over west
Texas. At the surface, a dryline will move east through our
forecast area during the early afternoon hours. Behind this
dryline, southwest winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range
with the strongest winds west of a Haskell to Barnhart line.
Winds at 700mb will increase into the 45 to 55 knot range along
and west of the western border of our CWA, with the strongest
winds in the Lubbock area. Models indicate a fairly sharp drop-off
to these winds across the eastern 2/3 of our area. In addition,
models also indicate fairly thick mid/upper level cloud cover
which will hamper mixing of the strongest winds to the surface for
much of our area. So, while we will see breezy conditions with
gusts over 30 mph at times, we should remain under Wind Advisory
criteria.

Temperatures will also soar well into the 80s, with near record
temperatures in the San Angelo area. Although Abilene will also be
in the 80s, they are less likely to reach a record. Overnight, a
cold front will move through, likely reaching the I-10 corridor by
around sunrise or shortly after, turning winds to the north at 15
to 20 mph. Lows will be in the low 40s north to near 50 south.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

..More seasonal temperatures Wednesday into Friday then a warm
up this weekend...

Cold front will move through early Wednesday morning, with gusty
north winds. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals,
Wednesday into Friday, with highs in the lower and mid 60s, and
lows in the mid and upper 30s. Dry air will be in place through
Friday with dew points in the 20s. While winds will be shifting
southeast on Thursday and south on Friday, as surface high
pressure moves east, low level moisture will wait until Saturday
to return.

Breezy and warmer Saturday and Sunday a tight gradient develops
between a lee trough and surface high pressure to the east.
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Sunday
and again Monday night, from Junction to San Saba, as a eastward
moving weak upper disturbance in northern Mexico moves into South
Texas. Rainfall amounts look light, if they occur.

04

FIRE WEATHER...
..Red Flag Warning in effect for western areas today...

A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for areas generally west of
an Ozona, San Angelo, Sweetwater, Haskell line. Strong
southwesterly flow aloft will move into the area today ahead of a
strong upper level trough. Mixing of strong southwest winds to the
surface will quickly push the dryline into the eastern 1/3 of our
forecast area by early afternoon. While winds at the 700mb along
and just west of our western border will climb into the 45 to 55
knot range, there will be a sharp drop off to these winds
generally east of a Haskell to Ozona line. Clouds will limit
mixing of the strongest winds to the surface for parts of the
area, so have shaved a few of the eastern counties off the Red
Flag Warning for this afternoon. Beyond this afternoon, fire
weather conditions will remain elevated through Friday with
relative humidity values dropping to less than 20 percent.
However, cooler temperatures and decreased wind speeds should
preclude critical conditions. Moisture increases over the weekend,
further improving fire weather conditions for Saturday into early
next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  45  61  36 /   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  87  47  65  36 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  85  50  67  37 /  10   5   5   0
Brownwood  84  48  63  35 /  10   5   5   0
Sweetwater  82  44  61  38 /   0   5   0   0
Ozona       84  47  66  36 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for Coke-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-
Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

$$


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