Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 210838
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
338 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough will deepen over the western states today and
tonight. A downstream ridge will extend from East Texas to the
northeast across the Midwest and eastern Great Lakes. With a
weakness/subtle disturbance over our area on the southwestern
portion of this ridge, the possibility of isolated/widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon through
late evening. We are carrying slight chance PoPs generally northwest
of an Ozona-Ballinger-Throckmorton line this afternoon, and across
much of our area this evening and early tonight. A few storms may
have strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will not be quite as hot today as the 850mb thermal
ridge weakens slightly, but highs will still be well-above normal
for this time in September, in the mid to upper 90s. With little
change in dewpoints, heat indices are expected to be a few degrees
higher than the actual air temperatures. Warm and humid conditions
are expected tonight, with lows mostly in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Extended forecast remains focused on the pattern change for early
next week, as a cooler and much wetter pattern prevails.

Deep upper level trough over the Western US will shift slowly east
over the weekend, increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage
across the Permian Basin and South Plains by Sunday and spreading
east across all of West Central Texas for Monday through
Wednesday. Rainfall enhanced by a slow moving cold front dropping
south across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the ECMWF
and the GFS indicate fairly widespread convection, producing
totals of 2-4 inches or more. Cloud cover, precipitation, and the
air mass behind the front will produce much cooler conditions for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the 50s/60s and highs in the
70 for most locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  91  69 /  20  20   5   5
San Angelo  98  71  92  69 /  20  20  10   5
Junction  95  71  91  69 /  10  20  10   5
Brownwood  94  70  91  68 /  10  10  10   5
Sweetwater  95  72  91  69 /  20  20  10   5
Ozona       94  71  89  69 /  20  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

19/07


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