Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 211146 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
546 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

The main aviation concern is with the gusty north winds expected
to occur in the wake of a cold frontal passage this afternoon.

Initial south-southwest winds will veer to the west and increase
to some extent with passage of a pre-frontal surface trough this
morning. Winds will shift to the north with the cold frontal
passage. Timing of the wind shift is expected to be by 17Z at
KABI, 19Z at KSJT and between 20Z to 2030Z at KSOA and KJCT.
Behind the front this afternoon, north winds will be 20-25 knots
with gusts to or just above 30 knots at KABI and KSJT. Farther to
the south, post-frontal wind speeds will be 15-20 knots with
gusts 25-30 knots. The gusty north winds will continue through
this evening and early tonight, with wind speeds gradually
decreasing through the night.

VFR conditions are expected partly cloudy skies today and tonight.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Dry with Gusty North Winds...

Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas
today and bring gusty winds from the north. This front will be
dry, as available moisture is low. Models indicate most of West
Central Texas will have winds from the northwest or north by early
afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs will vary, with numbers mainly
in the upper 60s across the Big Country likely. Elsewhere this
afternoon, highs will be in the 70 to 73 range. Light winds
tonight, along with little cloud cover, will allow temperatures to
drop into the 30s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

..Continued Dry and Mild...

Models this cycle indicate little if any change to the long term
forecast. After a cool day Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 55
to 60 range, temperatures will rebound quickly for Thanksgiving
day. Highs on Thanksgiving will be back above seasonal normals,
mainly around 70. Plus, winds will be light; thus, expect near
picture-perfect weather for the holiday. In addition, shoppers
out-and-about looking for those post-Thanksgiving deals on Friday
will also see very mild weather. For the holiday weekend, another
cold front on Saturday will again bring winds from the north;
nevertheless, that front will not be as strong and will have very
little impact on afternoon highs, which will likely range around
70 on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...

..Elevated to near critical fire weather concern today...

The elevated fire weather concern is during the Noon to 5 PM time
frame, for the area along and west of a Haskell to Ballinger to
Junction line. The cold front is expected to move south to the I-20
corridor by late this morning, and should reach I-10 around 3 PM
this afternoon.  Gusty north winds will follow passage of this cold
front. With a dry airmass, relative humidity values will drop into
the 20-30 percent range this afternoon. On the western end of this
area, a combination of stronger winds and low end relative humidity
could result in near critical fire weather conditions along/west of
a Sweetwater to Sterling City to Ozona line for a 1-3 hour time
period, immediately following the frontal passage. We are issuing a
Fire Danger Statement to address these fire weather concerns.

Gusty north or north-northeast winds will continue this evening, but
with temperatures dropping and relative humidity values increasing,
the fire weather threat will be alleviated.   19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  36  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  70  38  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  73  40  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  68  38  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  68  37  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       72  38  60  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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