Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 011736
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1236 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals through tonight.
There will be some passing high clouds mainly across the southern
terminals this afternoon, with clear skies for the overnight
hours. Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 802 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

UPDATE...
Quick update to add isolated showers to the forecast for areas
generally south of I-20 this morning. Although most of the
activity is virga, and not reaching the ground, radar shows some
decent returns for southern areas that may reach the ground
through the morning hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, a shortwave moving through the upper level ridge is
causing some upper level cloud cover across the area. This
shortwave will move east today with skies clearing from west to
east later this morning into afternoon. Generally clear skies can
be expected after that. With plenty of sun expected for the
afternoon hours across the area, temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid
80s. The same trend can be expected for Saturday night low
temperatures with just enough wind to keep the bottom from
dropping out, we can expect lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)

The strong upper level low over the eastern CONUS will begin
lifting northeast, which will help put a short wave ridge over the
Southern Plains by Sunday. Also, low level southerly flow returns
to our area helping warm temperatures a few degrees. Going with a
dry forecast, besides isolated thunderstorms possible over the
western 1/3 of the area Monday night. Highs will be in mid to
upper 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

(Tuesday through Wednesday)

A strong upper level trough will develop across the western CONUS
early this week. West-southwest flow aloft across the Southern
Plains will lead to surface pressure falls and a dryline
developing to our west on Tuesday. Some short wave energy(mid to
upper level ascent) will swing east across the Southern Plains
Wednesday which will help drive a dryline east across into the
western part of West Central Texas. Medium range models indicate
scattered thunderstorms across much of the area Tuesday and
Wednesday as enough low level moisture will be in place, due to
southerly flow, along and ahead of the dryline. A few strong to
severe storms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening
on both days due to moderate instability and 0-6KM bulk shear
around 40 knots. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging
winds. A few storms are still possible Wednesday night across the
Northwest Hill Country and Heartland.

(Thursday through Saturday)

Looks like a quiet weather pattern by the end of this as a cool
front moves through the area Thursday, bringing direr air and
cooler temperatures. Temperatures will still be warm Thursday,
with highs in the 80s, then cooler Friday and Saturday with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  58  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  56  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  83  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       56  82  60  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24


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