Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 021727
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

/18Z TAFS/

Stratus around 1500 feet will develop for a few hours Thursday
morning at KSOA and KJCT, and it may make it to KSJT as well. For
now, we`ve inserted MVFR ceilings across the southern terminals
and will carry a scattered cloud group at San Angelo. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with light winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR CIGs are moving north into our southern terminals early this
morning. Short-range model guidance shows this moisture making it
close to KSJT and KBBD, but not quite becoming BKN at these
locations, so have held off on introducing any prevailing MVFR
CIGs at those two sites. However, will carry at least a TEMPO
group for MVFR CIGs at both KSOA and KJCT. Expect these low
clouds to scatter out by 15Z or shortly after. After that, expect
VFR conditions through the afternoon and most of the overnight
period with south to southeast winds of 10 knots or less. We may
see low clouds again tomorrow morning, but timing is still
uncertain, so will not insert any before 12Z tomorrow. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very little change expected from yesterday`s weather. An upper level
ridge stretching from northern Mexico into the southern plains will
remain in place, and possibly strengthen just a bit. With that in
mind, have gone with highs similar to Tuesday, and kept the forecast
dry. The Texas Tech WRF tries to generate some very isolated
convection this afternoon, and while this can`t be completely ruled
out, with basically no change in the pattern, think this scenario is
pretty unlikely. Similar reasoning was applied to overnight lows,
will go with persistent lows around the 70 degree mark.

20

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Near seasonal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
across the forecast area into the first of next week as an upper
level ridge continues to dominate our weather picture. An upper
level low over the Pacific Northwest toward the end of the week
will work its way over northern California by late Friday before
lifting northeast over the northern Rockies through this weekend.
An associated cold will push south into the Southern Plains by
early next week but should remain north of the forecast area
before dissipating. Have however introduced a slight chance of
convective activity over the extreme northwestern Big Country on
Tuesday to cover the southern extent of any frontal induced
convective activity over the Panhandle that may survive this far
south.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  68  94  71 /   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  96  69  96  71 /   0   5   5   0
Junction  93  68  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll


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