Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261110 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Some low cloud development and expansion is expected over the
southeastern part of our area early this morning. This should
result in occasional MVFR ceilings at KJCT. Low clouds should
dissipate around mid-morning. Clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected this afternoon with a VFR-based cumulus field primarily
over the east and southeast parts of our area. Winds will be
mainly from the south today and tonight, and occasional gusts
17-20 knots are expected this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper high centered over eastern New Mexico and the southern
Plains will move little today and tonight. Clear to partly cloudy
skies are expected for our area. Some low cloud development and
expansion is expected over the southeastern part of our area early
this morning. With slightly higher 850mb temperatures, expect highs
today to be 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday. Warm and somewhat
humid conditions are expected tonight. Overnight lows will be mostly
in the mid 70s, with a few upper 70s possible in our northern
counties.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Hot and dry conditions continue into Friday. The upper level high
pressure is slowly shifting west, but remains close enough to
prevent convective development. Ridge is a little farther west on
Saturday, allowing for some small chance of a stray shower or
storm across the eastern Heartland and Big Country. This area
shifts a little farther west for Sunday, with the ridge axis
extending across the Southwest US north into the Northern Rockies.

GFS and the ECMWF continue to have their differences for next
week, with the ECMWF still farther west and much wetter than the
GFS. Will again continue to run with a compromise, with the idea
that these summer upper level highs are often slow to shift
west, and thus the ECMWF may have the general idea right but may
be a little too quick to shift the upper high west.

Otherwise, temperatures well into the 90s to near the 100 degree
mark through Friday, with temperatures cooling slightly for the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  77  98  75 /   5   0   0   5
San Angelo 100  75  99  74 /   5   5   0   5
Junction  97  75  97  73 /  10   5   5   5
Brownwood  99  74  98  74 /  10   0   5   5
Sweetwater  99  75  97  74 /   5   5   0   5
Ozona       96  75  95  72 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07


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