Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 231724
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low stratus developed this morning, mainly along the west of a
line from KSWW, to KSJT, to KSOA. These low clouds will continue
to erode over the next 1-2 hours, resulting in prevailing VFR
conditions through the afternoon and most of the overnight period.
As winds go light overnight, patchy fog may develop, resulting in
visibilities of 3-5 miles at the southern terminals. Otherwise,
expect south winds at 10 kts or less.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early
this morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover.
Northwest flow aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of
the departing upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the
west. Under mostly sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under
mostly clear skies will be in the mid 50s to the around 60
degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday. As
the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the
country. Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs
next week and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect
cooler temperatures behind the front by mid week, with
temperatures returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  59  85  61  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  57  85  58  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
Junction  82  52  86  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




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