Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271705
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Isolated thunderstorms are expected over most of the area this
afternoon, but coverage should be limited. Have not included
specific mention of storms in any TAFs due to their expected
isolated nature. VFR conditions will continue and surface winds
will remain generally light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy low clouds will continue to spread across portions of the
Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Heartland early
this morning, with many of the terminals in those areas seeing
brief MVFR cigs at times. This will continue for several more
hours, but should dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, isolated
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, but coverage should be
limited. Have not included in this morning terminals for now, but
once they start to develop, may have to include a brief mention in
later forecasts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect more of the same across West Central Texas for today and
tonight. Mid level moisture remains evident on satellite and
observations from the Permian Basin northeast across the northwest
Big Country. Showers have been slow to completely dissipate in this
area, and this should also be where the greatest chance of afternoon
convection developing will be as well. Will continue the chance PoPs
out there, or roughly west of a Sweetwater to Sterling City line.
Isolated PoPs across the remainder of West Central Texas, where hit
and miss shower and storms could develop just about anywhere across
the area. Latest TTUWRF and the HRRR certainly support this idea.
Otherwise, models have tried to cool afternoon highs down a couple
degrees for the last several days, but highs have still rebounded
into the low to mid 90s each day. Will keep afternoon highs up
closer to where they ended up on Friday.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)

The combination of weak upper level forcing and a tropical airmass
will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to West
Central Texas. Most of this activity will be during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal
through much of this period. Highs will be mainly in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

(Wednesday Night through Saturday)

Going with a dry forecast and a slow warming trend Thursday through
Saturday as the subtropical ridge builds back across the Southern
Plains. Highs will be mainly 90 to 95 and lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  90  70  89 /  10  30  20  30
San Angelo  69  90  69  89 /  10  30  20  40
Junction  69  90  69  86 /   5  30  20  50
Brownwood  72  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  40
Sweetwater  68  88  69  88 /  10  30  20  30
Ozona       71  90  68  88 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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