Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 020422
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect widespread stratus across West Central Texas through most
of this TAF forecast package. The ceilings will remain mainly low
end VFR(OVC035-045). Scattered showers will continue through
Monday morning and have VCSH at the terminals. The winds will be
from the north with gusts around 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect widespread stratus across West Central Texas during the
next 24 hours. The ceilings will remain mainly low end
VFR(OVC035). Scattered showers will continue through Monday and
have VCSH at most terminals, however keeping KABI with a mainly
dry forecast. The winds will be from the north to northeast with
a few gusts around 20 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have begun developing
along and west of a Haskell to Sweetwater line as of 3 PM this
afternoon, as isentropic lift from southerly flow over the top of
the cool surface air mass combines with large scale lift moving in
from an approaching upper level low in eastern AZ. As this low
flattens out into a wave and is drawn eastward into faster westerly
flow, modest lift will continue to spread into the area continuing a
chance for showers and isolated storms tonight across the entire
area. The best chances remain generally south of a Barnhart to
Menard line overnight where better surface convergence and upslope
flow is located.

For Monday, have generally lowered PoPs as much of the precipitation
is expected to be moving southeast out of the area by mid-Monday
morning, but we may have some lingering showers as far north as a
Mertzon to Abilene line. Cooler than normal temperatures will
continue as the cool air mass will remain in place, and clouds are
also expected to hang around into the afternoon hours limiting the
amount of heating that the sun could provide.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

Surface high pressure will build directly over West Central Texas
Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will promote good
radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies, lighter winds,
and a dry atmosphere. Lows Tuesday morning should fall into the
mid 40s.

For Tuesday night, the GFS and EC bring a strong upper shortwave
southeast through Oklahoma. Convective algorithms indicate potential
for an MCS in northwest flow aloft, which could affect northern
sections of the Big Country Tuesday evening...mainly Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. Discounting potential at this time, as the
area will be just returning to southeast flow at the surface.
However, later shifts may need to reevaluate.

On Wednesday, there is shift to southwest to westerly winds as
surface high pressure moves into South Texas. This should allow
warming into the lower 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, as a large
upper low moves into the 4 corners region. Low level moisture
returns Saturday with slight chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, but the better chance will be Sunday afternoon (as
the upper low approaches) and Sunday night (as a surface trough
moves through).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  66  46  75 /  50  20   5   5
San Angelo  50  68  46  77 /  50  20   5   5
Junction  53  67  47  77 /  50  30   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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