Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 302042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Models continue to advertise a faster frontal passage, and this
looks reasonable based on current surface observations. Most of the
short range models indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop in the next few hours, mainly north of Interstate 20,
spreading south as we head through the evening. Given the faster
frontal passage advertised by the models, precipitation chances were
expanded south. Overall, the coverage of the showers/thunderstorms
looks spotty at best.

The front will clear the I-10 corridor Thursday morning, stalling
just south of the area by afternoon. Moisture will be slow to scour
out across the southern half of the area, with precipitable water
values remaining above 1.5 inches south of a Sterling City to
Brownwood line. Given the proximity of the front, and favorable
upslope flow following the cold frontal passage, precipitation
chances were increased near Interstate 10. With cold advection and
increased cloud cover behind the front, highs were lowered a few
degrees, ranging from the mid 80s across northern areas, to near 90
degrees farther south.

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday Night through Saturday/
There will be a slight chance of rain across the southern 1/3 of the
area late this week into the first part of the weekend. The
combination of weak ascent and some instability will lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and
evening. Also, cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold
front with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

/Saturday Night through Wednesday/
Looks like a dry forecast with temperatures warming back to around
seasonable levels. Weak upper level north to northwest flow will
prevail through the early part of the next week, then a high
pressure ridge builds across the area. As a result, not much
instability or upper level forcing to work with. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  65  87  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  71  90  67  90  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
Junction  73  92  71  92  70 /  10  30  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll/21







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