Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 260017
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND SHORT TERM RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOW NORTH
EDGE OF NOTABLE -SN SHIFTING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP. WILL DROP A
STRIP OF NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

SPINNING OVER UTAH....THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SNOW
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND SNOW IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 15-20 MPH...CAUSING SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
FALLING.

INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SNOW SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD COULD SEE ANOTHER 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT ALONG A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS THAT
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 20...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ON FRIDAY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 20. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A
1055MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TEMPS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO
-20F...WHILE LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BY MID WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD/NORTHEAST WY THIS EVENING DUE TO SN/STRATUS. THE SNOW
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCAL AREAS IFR BR IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ027-
     029-030-041-074.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     SDZ042>044-046-047-049.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR WYZ055-
     058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HELGESON






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