Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 291550
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH WILL KICK UP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING TOWARD
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND MODELS SHOWED TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. ONE AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH
ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
THICKER THAN FORECAST SO I TWEAKED SKY COVER UPWARD A LITTLE FOR
TODAY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES
ARE ANTICIPATED. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA EARLIER SATURDAY
EVENING HAS BASICALLY WASHED OUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE IS DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TO HELP PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA
AND JUST A FEW FLAT CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREAT
BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN TODAY WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME FLAT CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS. A STRONGER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP
PUSH ANY MOISTURE EAST...BUT ALSO INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. RIGHT NOW MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS IN THE
15-25 MPH RANGE...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME HIGH WINDS.
HOWEVER...ANY WIND ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY...SO RECORDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL MARK THE DEPARTURE FROM
LATE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ALOFT BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE AREA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...IT WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS IT DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE
EAST. THE CURRENT CONCERN WITH THIS WAVE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH...WHICH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
WIND ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...KEPT THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS THERE. OTHERWISE...THIS WILL INTRODUCE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE 74
DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND 49 DEGREES FOR LOWS.

THINGS GET MUDDY AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT WARMUP COULD BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...DIGGING THE
TROUGH INTO THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS...THUS INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD ALSO PLAY A
ROLE IN PROMOTING MIXING...HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS OTHER IDEAS...THIS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND DOES NOT DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATER ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP FLOW MAINLY ZONAL ON SATURDAY...INHIBITING
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TREND. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...INCREASED
CLOUDS...AND WILL KEEP SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED THIS WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SWINGING OVER TO A PREDOMINANTLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO
THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 8KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCT250 LOOKING LIKELY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS TO CONTINUE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE KBIH...WHERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
VALLEY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND KDAG WHERE STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
&&

.CLIMATE...LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

LOCATION        SUN 3/29         MON 3/30         TUE 3/31
------------------------------------------------------------------
LAS VEGAS       86/1966          88/2004          91/1966
MT CHARLESTON   63/1989          65/2004          69/1989
BISHOP          81/1969          84/1966          87/1966
BARSTOW         88/1969          91/1969          91/2011
DEATH VALLEY    99/2002         101/2002         103/2011
NEEDLES         95/1917          97/2004          95/2011
KINGMAN         86/1934          87/2002          88/1934
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








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