Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KVEF 311645
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD PACIFIC STORM
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&


.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS GOOD SO NO
UPDATES THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST A FEW REFINEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.
TODAY MAY BE THE LAST 80+ DEGREE DAY WE SEE FOR A WHILE IN LAS VEGAS
AS A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60`S. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. AS
IT DOES SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM OVER 9000 FEET TO BETWEEN 6500
AND 7000 FEET BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY IN THE SIERRA OF INYO
COUNTY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH PRODUCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ENHANCED DYNAMICS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN
PLACE STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST IT WILL
BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS LAS VEGAS [MAINLY SATURDAY
MORNING]. A WEAK PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE DRAWN UP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE...
LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE
GUSTY WINDS PRODUCED BY THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND PRODUCTS FOR THE MOMENT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED. IN THE
MOUNTAINS THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSTABLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...AND A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ANY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD 6 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT BY MID WEEK RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR MCCARRAN...AFTER 15Z WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATED A BRIEF [APPROXIMATELY 1 HOUR] PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEFORE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 15K FEET THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUD BASES
MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10K FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHRA
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF EVEN LOWER CIGS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD BASES

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: WOLCOTT
LONG TERM: CZYZYK
UPDATE: BERC

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.