Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 191717
SPC AC 191716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Thunderstorms are forecast to occur from the southern Plains
northeast to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

A large-scale mid-level trough situated over the Rockies on Tuesday
will shed a shortwave disturbance through the north-central U.S.
into Ontario while a series of disturbances reorient the trough over
the West Coast states.  Meanwhile, another impulse --readily
identifiable on water-vapor imagery over Baja California on Monday--
is expected to weaken and eject eastward through the base of the
larger-scale trough and reach an elongated position from OK through
southwest TX and Chihuahua by midday Tuesday, and becoming
increasingly ill-defined with time Tuesday night.  In the low
levels, a cold front initially located from the middle MS Valley
southwestward into northwest OK will push south through OK and into
south-central TX by daybreak Wednesday.

...Eastern OK...
Models vary some on the evolution of late night Day 1
shower/thunderstorm activity near the Red River vicinity into the
Tuesday morning period.  As a result, variability exists on the
potential development of a small warm sector across eastern OK ahead
of the southward-moving front.  Some of the more aggressive model
solutions for a strong thunderstorm or two appear to be slow in the
southward advancing of the cold front over OK compared to
observations midday Monday.  As such, it appears the anafrontal
character of the front will probably aid in limiting thunderstorm
intensity as storms develop behind the front.

..Smith.. 02/19/2018

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