Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
ACUS02 KWNS 240418
SWODY2
SPC AC 240416

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

ACTIVE SRN BRANCH OF JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY2
PERIOD.  LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MEMORIAL DAY.  DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  FORECAST INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAK AHEAD OF SFC LOW
AND WHILE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE FROM THE MN/IA
BORDER INTO WI...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE
TO WEAK BUOYANCY.  ISOLATED HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING FRONT WITHIN
NEUTRAL-WEAKLY SUBSIDENT POST-SHORT WAVE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE HAIL IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

...TX...

SECONDARY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE BIG
BEND/NRN MEXICO REGION EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.  CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND ONE OR MORE
MCS-TYPE CLUSTERS SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BODY OF TX AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.  HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNDOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ANY DRY LINE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROVE SPARSE WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 05/24/2015




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.