Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
ACUS02 KWNS 061714
SWODY2
SPC AC 061713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND
OH VALLEY OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CELLS INITIATE IN THE LARAMIE MTNS
AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE OF SE WY. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SW NEB AND FAR NE CO. FORECAST SOUNDING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
AT 00Z/SUN SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG AND 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL AIDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
CELLS THAT ROTATE. AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE AND CELLS MOVE INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NEB AND NW KS...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
ALSO OCCUR.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO SW KS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ACROSS WRN KS
EXTENDING SWD INTO WEST TX ALONG WHICH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

...OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
WRN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AS A 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IND...SRN
OH AND NRN KY AT 00Z/SUN SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP AND
MOVE SEWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HAIL MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2016

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.