Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 280717
SWODY3
SPC AC 280716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY FROM THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING
WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ALREADY DEVELOPED TUESDAY MORNING. IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
GREAT ENOUGH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...OUTFLOW WITH THIS CONVECTION
WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FROM IA ENEWD INTO NRN
IL...SRN WI AND POSSIBLY SRN LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE ECMWF...NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER MARKEDLY CONCERNING INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NEWD INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR THIS OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 08/28/2016

$$



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