Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 280734
SWODY3
SPC AC 280733

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY FROM EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYNOPTIC CYCLONE
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MS VALLEY SATURDAY. A SFC LOW INITIALLY OVER MO 12Z SAT WILL
DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD
THROUGH MO...ARKANSAS AND ERN/SRN TX. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
EXTEND EWD FROM THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...


LLJ INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS EARLY SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...REACHING THE
OH VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN PROGRESS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AND
LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WHERE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE.
BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE UPSTREAM OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN AND SERN TX...BUT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIAL
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EJECTING WAVE. AS A RESULT OF THE CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT AREAS...HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES TO MARGINAL
CATEGORY UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2016

$$


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