Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 010211 AAA
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
911 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will track into eastern
Canada tonight. An associated cold front will push through the
Mid Atlantic late tonight. High pressure will return to the region
Friday and Saturday. Low pressure will track to the west of the
region Sunday night. High pressure returns Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Line of showers stretches from York, PA to Fredericksburg, VA and
is moving east around 30 knots and will reach the Chesapeake Bay
around 03Z. 01/00Z IAD sounding showed an inversion around 500 mb
with equilibrium level temps warmer than -10C. So, thunderstorms
appear very unlikely. However, the line could still produce a few
strong wind gusts. EZF in Fredericksburg just reported a 35-kt
gust at 855PM.

Cold front moves east across the area near midnight...with
showers ending shortly thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Drying out Thursday (though some upslope snow showers are possible
along the Allegheny Front)...with high temperatures in the 50s
and gusty westerly winds under mostly sunny skies. High pressure
builds into the area from the SW Friday with dry weather (outside
of light upslope snow) and temperatures near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will keep dry conditions Saturday into part of
Sunday as it drifts east from the Ohio Valley. High temperatures
will be in the 40s for most of our CWA...30s at higher elevations.

A shortwave trough in the upper levels could bring a chance of
showers for late Sunday into early Monday... with additional
precipitation into Monday afternoon on the Allegheny Front.
Confidence is low after this, as guidance disagree on timing and
location for a surface low to lift from the Gulf States...increasing
the chance of precipitation to our region for Tuesday into
Wednesday.

High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s...and low temperatures
in the 30s mainly....with 20s at higher elevations which could see
some type of frozen precipitation, and some 40s near the Bay.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers currently moving through the main terminals should clear
them by 03Z. Gusty winds up to 35kt possible.

Cold front crosses the area after midnight tonight with a shift to
west winds. Gusts in 25 kt range Friday and Saturday with VFR
conds.

Dry conditions expected for Saturday into part of Sunday
with high pressure dominating weather conditions...therefore VFR
conditions expected. Late on Sunday into Monday, an upper level
disturbance could bring showers to the terminals, allowing for
conditions to become sub-VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning in effect until 2AM EST. Gale force gusts have been
reported at Shannon airport in Fredericksburg, VA.

A cold front crosses the area tonight with a shift to west winds
after midnight. West winds mix down through Thursday with gusts
around 25-30 knots across the waters. SCA through Thursday for
now...and is likely again both Friday and Saturday.

Dry conditions expected for Saturday into part of Sunday with
high pressure dominating weather conditions.Late on Sunday into
Monday, an upper level disturbance could bring showers over the
waters. Gusty winds possible Saturday...so a small craft advisory
could be possible for this day.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/MSE
MARINE...IMR/MSE


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