Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 130055
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
855 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this evening
and become stationary across the Carolinas early in the week.
Weak high pressure builds over the area Sunday and holds through
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 continues for central and southern
Maryland, Washington DC, portions of northern Virginia and
surrounding waters until 11 PM.

Thunderstorms that brought strong winds and large hail this
afternoon/evening are moving south-southeastward across the
southern and eastern DC suburbs at this time. Activity will
continue to move away from DC and eventually south of the Tidal
Potomac River late this evening. A cold front has moved into the
Potomac Highlands with dewpts dropping and winds becoming NW.
Although this front will move eastward overnight, there won`t be
a strong surge of NW winds behind it. Light winds may result in
patchy fog in low- lying areas into Sunday morning.

Northerly winds and low humidity are expected Sunday. The cold
front will stall across the Carolinas and bkn clouds will
likely be present across Central VA Sunday. Temps in the low to
mid 80s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Low clouds and a few showers will be possible Sun night into
Mon as sfc flow turns onshore but it will remain too stable for
t-storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper shortwave/surface reflection should depart to the east of the
area Tuesday, leading to a drying trend through the middle of next
week as high pressure builds. Decent model agreement through mid
week, which includes a stark warming trend by Thursday. Models then
diverge on timing/orientation of the next upper level wave and
surface front that would in theory bring the next chance of
organized precip.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TSRA have moved south and east of the terminals this evening.
-SHRA is still possible mainly at CHO/IAD through 3z. A cold
 front will cross the terminals overnight. Winds will become NW
 overnight however remain light to calm. Patchy fog is possible
 at MRB/CHO however confidence is low.

VFR conditions expected Sunday. Fog is possible into Monday
morning and flight restrictions may be warrented.

Mainly VFR Tue-Wed. Patchy fog possible Tue night in areas
that receive rain if dry advection isn`t strong enough prior to
nightfall. NW flow AOB 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the waters this
evening. Gusty winds and hail are possible with these storms and
SMWs are highly likely.

A cold front will cross the waters overnight and into Sunday
morning. Winds will become NW and a surge of higher winds will
likely move from north to south across the waters. At this time,
winds are expected to stay under SCA criteria.

Generally light winds expected mid-week as high pressure
moves over the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HSK/DFH
MARINE...HSK/DFH



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