Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 231424
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1024 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass through the region today and the
associated cold front is expected to slowly move through the area
tonight into Friday. High pressure will build overhead for the
weekend before moving off the coast Monday. A cold front may
impact the area during the middle portion of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A frontal boundary is stretched across the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic regions this morning. One potent shortwave accompanying
the MCS moved through earlier...while another is approaching from
the west. This will likely concentrate on southern parts of the
CWA late this morning into early this afternoon...but additional
convection may also fire with more disturbances by this evening. A
big question mark for the northern portion of the CWA in
particular is just how unstable we are able to get. Right now
clouds are pretty dominant in the wake of the MCS...but if the sun
can come out for just a bit, the strong June insolation should
quickly destablize the area. For the rest of the day most of the
CWA has been dropped to high end chance PoPs...but with plenty of
strong wind aloft and potential for strong instability should the
sun come out, along with high PW`s, we have maintained the gusty
wind/heavy rain wording. Highs are dependent on the breaks of
sun...so if it stays cloudy all day they may bust high.

The frontal boundary will retreat southward tonight as low
pressure slides eastward. However, as another shortwave
approaches the region, the chance of showers and thunderstorms may
persist thru the night especially across the southwestern
zones...closer to the front and the more unstable air to the
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will push into the region Friday however another
shortwave trough will drop into the Ohio Valley. Showers and
perhaps thunderstorms are possible especially across the higher
elevations Friday. Max temps in the u70s/l80s are expected. High
pressure will continue to build into the region Friday night and
dry conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Saturday through
Sunday...bringing  build into the region Friday night through
Sunday...bringing drier and cooler conditions to the area. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out near the Blue Ridge Mountains
and Potomac Highlands...but even across these areas much of the time
will be dry.

High pressure will move offshore Monday and a return flow will allow
for more humid conditions along with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front may pass through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday of next week...possibly bringing unsettled conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northern terminals are generally back to VFR with the passage of
the MCS earlier today. However... another round of SHRA/VCTS are
expected this afternoon with sub-vfr conditions in heavy rain.
Gusty winds will also be possible.

Prevailing VFR conditions expected tonight through Friday
night. Patchy fog may reduce vis at some terminals later tonight
and early Friday. In addition... showers/t-storms remain possible
so short intervals of sub-vfr are possible.

High pressure will bring VFR conditions most of the time Saturday
through Sunday. Will have to watch for low clouds Saturday morning
due to an easterly component to the low-level flow. High pressure
will move offshore Monday and a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible. A cold front may impact the terminals during the middle
portion of next week with possible showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
S winds will increase on the waters today and SCA conditions are
expected. Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and may cause
reduced vsbys as well as SMWs. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are
expected through the afternoon on the waters. Winds become nrly
tonight and continue through Friday night.

High pressure will bring an easterly flow to the area Saturday and
Sunday. Winds should remain below sca criteria. The high will move
off the coast Monday and a cold front may impact the waters during
the middle portion of next week. More showers and thunderstorms are
possible during this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ003-501-
     502.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ027-028-
     030-031-503-504.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ050>053-
     055-501>506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/RCM
SHORT TERM...HAS/RCM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/RCM
MARINE...BJL/HAS



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