Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281341
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MIDWEEK...
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE A
SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS VT/NH/ME. A COLD FRONT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND DEWPTS ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 50S BEHIND IT. THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE APPALACIANS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE MIXED IN ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH W-NW
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT AND SRN MD.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC RESULTING IN BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR
TO A FALL DAY AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 66 IN VA AND INTERSTATE 50 IN MARYLAND. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT LEADS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT. NO SVR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE UPPER 50S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN SRN MD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUL IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE E CST IT WL DO SO UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY LARGE UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP TEMPS
BLO NRML. XPCT TO SEE CLDS BRK UP DURG EVE HRS...M CLR OVRNGT AND
DURG THE MRNG..THEN A CU FIELD DVLP DURG THE AFTN..ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND CLOSE TO THE PA BRDR.

LOWS IN THE 50S...L60S IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE BAY. HIGHS
75-80. AT A TIME OF THE YR WHERE HIGHS CAN REACH THE U90S (HIGH
TEMPS 7/29/2011: DCA 104..BWI 101..IAD 103...ALL RECORDS). HOPEFULLY
WE`LL ALL GET A CHC TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE UPCOMING WX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK WEST OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
RE-ESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES BACK/REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND
WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE LONG AND
PERSISTENT TRAJECTORY OF WIND OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING ALONG
A STALLED OR SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR
SOME AFTN INSTABILITY RW TO DVLP. WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW W/ GUSTS
OVR 20 KT FM MID MRNG THRU LATE AFTN.

VFR CONDS XPCTD FOR MUCH OF THE WK AHD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE
WATERS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

NO PROBS FORESEEN THEREAFTER THRU THU.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/HTS







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