Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KLWX 261838
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NC/SC...AND STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE SRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS SHIFT FROM N
TO NW...AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND HIGHLANDS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH...AND PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODIC LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA...AND ANY EARLY
MORNING PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY FALL AS SNOW.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
GENERALLY 50S TO THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAPERS OFF MON EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS OFFSHORE AND THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH. SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN THE WAKE SHOULD LEAD
TO SKIES SCATTERING AND DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

DRY WX THEN PERSISTS TUES THRU TUES NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO CLOSED LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUES...BUT WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH NORTH. OVERSPREADING PCPN WITH THIS LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH THRU AT LEAST 12Z WED. TEMPS REMAIN JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES-TUES NIGHT...THOUGH IF THE WINDS HOLD MORE TO A NW
FLOW RATHER THAN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS.

WED WILL BE A RELATIVELY NICE SPRING DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.
CLOUDS SHOULD START INCREASING BY LATE WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR
REGION. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR WED
NIGHT...KEEPING THEM SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON THU. STILL APPEARS
THAT THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE CWA THROUGH THU. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
CHANGE IF TRACK OF LOW SHIFTS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. COULD BE SOME
WRAPAROUND PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS SAT SLIGHTLY AOA NORMAL (L70S) ACROSS CWA...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT. LIGHT
N-NW FLOW CONTINUES. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT.

VFR COND LIKELY WED...BEFORE A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR IN RAIN SHOWERS THU
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
N-NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY FOR WINDS 15-20 KT
WITH 25 KT GUSTS.

SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS INITIALLY MON EVENING. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS THRU AT LAST TUES MORNING ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY. GUSTS ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT...WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS TUES AFTN-NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS WED AS FLOW REMAINS LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND FIELD INCREASES SOME ON THU...BUT OVERALL STRENGTH
WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...SEARS/MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/KCS/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/KCS/MSE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.