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000
FXUS61 KLWX 251401
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1001 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will continue to push further offshore
today while high pressure wedges it`s way south along the eastern
Appalachians Friday into Saturday. Cooler temperatures will prevail
as a result along with increased cloud cover. A warm front lifts
through the area this weekend bringing a significant warm up Sunday
and Monday. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives
with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak piece of shortwave energy aloft will continue to push
further off the lower Delmarva coast later this morning and into
midday. With shortwave energy aloft and a lee standing wave in
place increased cloudiness (i.e low and mid level stratus)
persists across a large portion of the forecast region.

Excess cloud cover will remain prevalent through this evening as
onshore east to northeast flow increases with high pressure wedging
south from the eastern Great Lakes region. This will hold
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and low 60s throughout the day
with upper 40s and low 50s over the mountains. Cloud cover will
linger tonight although some clearing is likely especially along the
PA/MD border and back across central/northeast MD. These areas do
have the potential to see a little frost with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 30s. COnfidence is low given the extent of the cloud
cover and clearing along the periphery of the wedge. Elsewhere lows
are expected to remain in the upper 30s and low 40s especially where
low and mid level clouds look to hang on. Some patchy drizzle is
even possible by daybreak Friday morning along the crest of the Blue
Ridge and eastern slopes of the Alleghenies as moisture increases on
southeast flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A mix of sun and clouds expected Friday with increasing clouds
in the southwest. Highs Friday will not be as chilly as today,
but mainly reach near 60 to lower 60s in most places. Lows
Friday night will drop into the 40s and should not be as chilly
as tonight. The next chance for showers will come Friday night
as warm advection ensues aloft ahead of a system over the center
of the country and its associated warm front.

High pressure will continue to nudge to the southeast on
Saturday. The warm front is expected to push farther east and
northeast during the day and bring a few showers mainly along
and west of the Blue Ridge. Highs on Saturday will range from
the upper 50s and lower 60s north of I-66 with middle to upper
60s to the south of this corridor. Saturday night`s lows a few
degrees milder.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep ridging builds across the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic states
Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions, and very warm to near record
warmth is likely across the area. Highs reach the upper 70s to low
80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s Monday. A few spots could reach 90F
Monday afternoon. Mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
especially Monday night.

Models are in a good agreement for Tuesday, indicating a cold front
sweeping through the area in the afternoon to early evening. Given
the building heat for 2-3 days, there is likely to be modest
instability for thunderstorms even with dew points in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Forcing along the cold front is likely to generate
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be strong.

This cold front brings little relief from the warmth as highs still
reach the lower 80s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday night. A brief period
of two to three hours of patchy drizzle or patchy fog near CHO
could lead to slight reductions to MVFR or IFR in terms of
ceiling later Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
northeast, becoming east by this afternoon. Winds Friday will
be out of the southeast.

A warm front lifts into the area Saturday providing a few
spotty showers to terminals west of the corridor. Outside of the
showers expect extra mid and high level clouds from time to
time with southerly winds gusting 20 to 25 kts.

VFR conditions expected Sunday into Monday, with mostly dry
conditions. South to southwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect through this morning. Sub-SCA northeast,
then easterly winds expected this afternoon. Sub-SCA southeast
winds are expected Friday, though channeling is possible late
in the day.

Winds could reach SCA for a few hours both Saturday and Sunday.
A warm front will lift across the waters Saturday changing the
winds toward more of a southerly direction.

South to southwest winds prevail Sunday into the start of next week,
with mostly dry conditions across the local waters. Southerly
channeling is possible, which could result in a few hours of near-
SCA conditions during the afternoon to evening each day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged period of northeast to east, then southeast to south
winds through the weekend is going to cause water levels to rise
across the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River. Starting later
this morning, sensitive locations at Annapolis and Straits Point
will reach Action Stage. The evening high tide being the
astronomically lower of the day will likely stay out of minor
flooding, though still reach Action Stage.

The first impactful high tide cycle is expected to be Friday
morning. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect for Annapolis and
Straits Points as moderate coastal flooding is possible at that
time. Other spots could reach minor flood stage, which would require
additional Coastal Flood Advisories. Additional periods of coastal
flooding are likely over the weekend as southerly winds persist, and
many locations approach or reach minor flood stage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ531>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR