Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
NOUS44 KMEG 092140
PNSMEG
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-100945-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2014

...NOVEMBER 2014 MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY...

NOVEMBER WAS UNUSUALLY COOL AROUND THE MID-SOUTH WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AROUND
SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION...METEOROLOGICAL
FALL...ENCOMPASSING THE MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER...AND
NOVEMBER...WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AROUND A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.

AS USUAL...MEMPHIS WAS THE WARMEST SITE THIS MONTH...ALTHOUGH WARM IS A RELATIVE TERM
AS ALL SITES WERE NEARLY SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAKING FOR
ONE OF THE COOLEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD. WITH ONLY ONE MONTH LEFT
IN 2014...MEMPHIS IS CURRENTLY 2.1 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE YEAR. TUPELO HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER THAT WAS
6.1 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND IS EXACTLY 2.0 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR 2014. JONESBORO WAS 5.4 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
NOVEMBER...AND IS CURRENTLY 2.3 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
YEAR. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE OF ALL FOUR OFFICIAL SITES THIS MONTH
WAS 16 DEGREES...RECORDED AT JACKSON...WHICH AIDED THE SITE IN
BEING THE COOLEST OF THE SUMMARY. AT EXACTLY 6.0 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH...JACKSON IS CURRENTLY 2.2 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR 2014.

WHILE ALL FOUR SITES HAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE MONTH...TUPELO
WAS ONLY 0.20 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER...AND CURRENTLY
SITS AT OVER 3.00 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. JACKSON WAS
2.72 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER AND IS CURRENTLY 7.28 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. MEMPHIS WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL BY 2.93
INCHES...BUT IS STILL 7.09 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 2014. JONESBORO
WAS THE DRIEST SITE FOR NOVEMBER AND HAD THE GREATEST DEPARTURE AT
3.01 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...BUT REMAINS THE SITE WITH THE GREATEST
DEPARTURE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE YEAR AT 7.28 INCHES.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUPELO...ALL OFFICIAL SITES RECORDED SNOWFALL DURING THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER...WHICH IS QUITE THE ANOMALY...GIVEN THAT THE
AVERAGE FIRST SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS IS NOT UNTIL LATE
DECEMBER TO EARLY JANUARY. JONESBORO RECORDED THE MOST SNOWFALL
THIS MONTH WITH 0.3 INCHES...MEMPHIS CAME IN AT 0.2 INCHES...WHILE
JACKSON RECORDED 0.1 INCHES. EACH OF THE THREE SITES ALSO RECORDED
A TRACE OF SNOW DEPTH.

THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER RANKED IN THE TOP TEN COOLEST MONTHS OF NOVEMBER AT ALL
FOUR OFFICIAL SITES:

MEMPHIS- 7TH COOLEST ON RECORD (TIED WITH THE YEARS 1877 AND 1932)
JACKSON- 2ND COOLEST ON RECORD
JONESBORO- 3RD COOLEST ON RECORD
TUPELO- 4TH COOLEST ON RECORD


TEMPERATURE DATA:
                              MEMPHISJACKSON   JONESBORO   TUPELO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (MONTH)  :   47.4  44.1 44.2     46.8
NORMAL AVG. TEMP (MONTH)     :   53.2  50.1 49.6     52.9
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (MONTH):   -5.8  -6.0 -5.4     -6.1
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (YEAR)   :   62.6  59.3 59.5     62.1
NORMAL AVG. TEMP (YEAR)     :   64.7  61.5 61.8     64.1
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (YEAR) :   -2.1  -2.2 -2.3     -2.0

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE          :   75.0  73.0 72.0     75.0
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE         :   20.0  16.0 19.0     21.0

PRECIPITATION DATA:
       MEMPHISJACKSON   JONESBORO   TUPELO
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (MONTH)  :    2.56  2.18 1.89     4.50
NORMAL PRECIPITATION (MONTH) :    5.49  4.90 4.90     4.70
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (MONTH):   -2.93 -2.72-3.01    -0.20
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (YEAR)   :   55.03 55.2041.36    52.01
NORMAL PRECIPITATION (YEAR)  :   47.94 47.9243.33       48.73
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (YEAR) :    7.09  7.28-1.97     3.28
PERCENT OF NORMAL            :    115%  115%  95%     107%

SNOWFALL DATA:
       MEMPHISJACKSON   JONESBORO   TUPELO
TOTAL SNOWFALL (MONTH)       :    0.2  0.1       0.3     0.0
NORMAL SNOWFALL (MONTH)     :    0.0  0.0       0.0     0.0
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (MONTH):    0.2     0.1       0.3      0.0
GREATEST SNOW DEPTH (MONTH)  : TRACE    TRACE    TRACE      0


FALL 2014 REVIEW:

METEOROLOGICAL FALL WITNESSED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX
OF ABOVE NORMAL...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

JACKSON HAD THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE AT 1.4 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH
MEMPHIS CLOSE BEHIND AT 1.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUPELO WAS 0.9
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS FALL...WHILE JONESBORO WAS ONLY
0.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUPELO WAS THE WETTEST SITE AND ALSO THE
ONLY SITE WITH A WETTER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTAL AT 3.81
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. JACKSON WAS ONLY 0.53 INCHES DRIER THAN
NORMAL...WHILE MEMPHIS WAS 1.25 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. JONESBORO WAS
THE DRIEST SITE THIS FALL AND HAD THE GREATEST DEPARTURE FROM
NORMAL AT 4.54 INCHES BELOW.


TEMPERATURE DATA:
                               MEMPHISJACKSON   JONESBORO   TUPELO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (FALL14)  :  63.0  59.3 60.1     62.4
NORMAL AVG. TEMP (FALL)       :  64.2  60.7 60.9     63.3
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (FALL14):  -1.2  -1.4 -0.8     -0.9

PRECIPITATION DATA:
       MEMPHISJACKSON   JONESBORO   TUPELO
TOTAL PRECIPITATION (FALL14)  :   11.31  11.52 7.68     16.07
NORMAL PRECIPITATION (FALL)   :   12.56  12.0512.22     12.26
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL (FALL14):   -1.25  -0.53-4.54     3.81

CLIMATE OUTLOOK:

WITH METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ALREADY UNDERWAY...MANY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT THE WINTER
MONTHS HOLD FOR THE MID-SOUTH. WHILE THE VARIABILITY IN
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...WE CAN MAKE A FAIRLY
DECENT PREDICTION AT THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES IN TERMS OF THEIR
RELATIONSHIP (ABOVE...NEAR...BELOW) TO NORMAL. THE EL NINO
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IS ONE INDICATOR WHICH ALLOWS US TO
PREDICT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOL SEASON WHEN
THE EFFECTS OF ENSO ARE MOST PROMINENT DUE TO THE ENHANCED
STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM. CURRENTLY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER (CPC) HAS PREDICTED A 58% CHANCE OF AN EL NINO...THE WARM
PHASE OF ENSO...FOR THE WINTER MONTHS. RECENTLY A LOCAL CLIMATE
STUDY WAS CONDUCTED ON THE IMPACTS OF ENSO ON THE MID-SOUTH.
THROUGH THIS STUDY IT WAS FOUND THAT THE MID-SOUTH HAS ENHANCED
ODDS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WINTER MONTHS
IN AN EL NINO SEASON. A WEAK EL NINO THIS WINTER IS A GOOD
INDICATION THAT OUR TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS OBVIOUSLY CONSIDERED ENSO WHEN MAKING ITS WINTER
OUTLOOK...AS IT HAS GIVEN THE MID-SOUTH ENHANCED ODDS OF
EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER. THIS IS FOR
THE THREE MONTH PERIOD OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...AND FEBRUARY. IN
OUR LOCAL CLIMATE STUDY WE FOUND THAT...ON AVERAGE...WHEN A WEAK
EL NINO OCCURS WINTER TEMPERATURES ARE UP TO 1.2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE
HARDER TO PREDICT AS THEY ARE MUCH MORE VARIABLE THAN
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE THE CPC HAS PREDICTED AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER. THIS MEANS THERE IS NO CLEAR CLIMATE
SIGNAL TO INDICATE HOW WET OR DRY IT MAY BE.

FINALLY...FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER ALONE...THE CPC HAS PREDICTED SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE MONTHLY AND
SEASONAL OUTLOOKS...THE CPC ALSO ISSUES OUTLOOKS UP TO 14 DAYS
OUT. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS...ENCOMPASSING MID-
DECEMBER...THE CPC IS PREDICTING ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS UP DECEMBER AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH WOULD BE QUITE
THE CHANGE FROM THE ABNORMALLY COOL NOVEMBER WE EXPERIENCED AROUND
THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT WOULD HAVE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO TURN AROUND THE BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
2014.


$$

MAYE


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