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000
FXUS63 KABR 192326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SD AT THIS TIME WITH VORT MAX
AND RIPPLE AT 500MB BEING OBSERVED. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A
BIT INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS.
OBSERVED VALUES ARE A BIT UNDER FORECAST VALUES. MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO AROUND
1500 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH...THE AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST CAPE RESIDES THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE REGION OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SD. EXPECTING ANYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA IN
BETTER ASCENT AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO DESTABILIZE JUST A BIT MORE.
CONVECTIVE MODE EXPECTED TO BE PULSE-TYPE DUE TO THE LACK OF
SHEAR TO SUSTAIN ANY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ANY STRONGER CORES ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OR SMALL HAIL. HI RES MODELS
INDICATING THIS WITH SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CONSOLIDATION LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS ACTIVE WITH PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MLCAPE INCREASES TO OVER
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH BETTER SHEAR VALUES THAN
WHAT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER 40
KNOTS BY 00Z FRIDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT
OVER CLOUDINESS OR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THIS COMES INTO PLAY FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKING IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL. WARM FRONT SHARPENS UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE CWA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. MLCAPE AND
SHEAR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM IS SHOWING MORE OF A SUMMER PATTERN WITH
WARM AND MOIST AIR ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK
TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING DEPENDING ON HOW ALL THINGS COME
TOGETHER. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TRACKING AND TIMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES. ON SATURDAY...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SD. EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...A LOW LEVEL FOCUS MECHANISM ALONG WITH BROAD SCALE
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE INHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND WHERE THESE SETUP. NONETHELESS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH AND A COOL FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES IN
BEHIND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS NEW
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND INLAND. THIS
WILL SEND OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FIRST IN THE EAST AROUND KABR/KATY...AND
THEN LATER AROUND KPIR/KMBG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. AT THAT TIME SOME MODEL DATA INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM ON THAT PROGNOSTICATION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN