Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 180526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S...TO THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE
DIFFERENCES COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST US WILL ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION
AND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS
IN LATER FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER
60S TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER
60S SHOWING UP FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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