699
FXUS61 KBGM 110552
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in the rain showers is expected this morning,
before additional showers move in from the west this afternoon
and evening. Additional scattered showers are expected Sunday
through the middle of the upcoming week, before a brief break in
the unsettled weather is expected later in the week. After cool
conditions this weekend, temperatures will gradually warm-up
this upcoming week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
150 AM Update:

No changes were needed with this update. Previous discussions
remain valid.

930 pm update...

Cloudy skies are across CNY with some clearing in NEPA and
Sullivan County NY. Some valley fog has quickly shown up in the
clearing area. Dewpoint depressions are already starting out at
2 or less so fog forming quickly makes sense. Temperatures will
fall very slowly tonight. Increased low temperatures a little
based on the lack of clearing and dry advection at the low
levels.

520 pm update...

Mostly upped pops and cloud cover to better represent current
conditions and trends. Clouds will be slower to leave tonight
everywhere with showers hanging on into the overnight in Oneida
County.

230 PM update...

Persistent rain will likely continue this afternoon into the
early evening as a surface low slowly departs off of the Mid
Atlantic coast. With some brief mid level ridging building in as
well as a weak surface high, rain showers will become isolated
and mostly limited to the higher terrain. Forecast soundings
show some drying in the mid and upper levels as the ridge builds
in but low level moisture hangs on. Given the steeper low level
lapse rates in place, there is likely going to be enough mixing
to get some pockets of clearing tonight. With the recent rain
and high humidity, any clearing will result in fog formation.

Tomorrow starts off dry but a shortwave dropping into the Great
Lakes region keeps clouds around as well as increase the chances
for precipitation later in the day. Given the very cold air at
500 mb, it wont take much heating to get instability so started
chances of precipitation a few hours earlier than model
guidance. Thunder is also possible in the afternoon and evening
as the shortwave moves in. Forecast soundings have the EL of
the surface cape reaching above -20c so that is just enough to
get some lightning despite the colder temperatures. The
shortwave will slow its progression as it moves into the
northeast so chances of rain showers persist through tomorrow
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next couple
bouts of rain showers and some afternoon thunderstorms Sunday
and Monday.

The seasonably cooler air will remain in place on Sunday as a
stacked low pressure system rotates eastward through the
Northeast US. This system should have enough deep layer moisture
(around a half inch PW), and sufficient synoptic forcing to
trigger scattered rain showers across the region. The showers
should be hit and miss for the most part. The other area of
interest on Sunday will be the threat for pop-up thunderstorms.
Temperatures aloft are expected to be quite cold (500 mb T
around -25 deg C), which should trigger some isolated convection
as the system moves through during the day Mother`s Day. Severe
weather is not expected. The only threat will be for cloud to
ground lightning.

Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday will only reach into the
upper 50s to near 60, and overnight lows Sunday night will be
chilly once again...falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The cool pattern will start to change on Monday as weak surface
ridging and a wedge of deep dry air moves through the region.
The cold air mass will shift to the east and warmer conditions
will start to push in from the southwest. Surface temperatures
will warm into the mid 60s to near 70 later in the day Monday
with mostly sunny skies early in the day. A weak cold front will
drop in from the northwest later in the day and allow cloud
cover to increase, along with the chances for showers and even a
few isolated thunderstorms as well. The increasing temperature
and moisture in the boundary layer will allow more potential
instability to be present Monday afternoon and early evening.
The forcing along the front and the steep low and mid level
lapse rates will lead to some convection scattered across the
region. At this time it appears the threat for severe weather is
very low.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
115 PM update...

A weak cold front dropping south across the eastern Great Lakes
and Northeast US will stall out Monday night into Tuesday and
become quasi-stationary, basically WSW-ENE across the area
through the day. The slow-moving nature of this front will keep
the threat of rain across the region in place potentially all
the way through Wednesday afternoon. There will also be a minor
threat of thunderstorms during the this time given the rich air
mass south of the front and relatively strong upper level
dynamics due to the presence of a couple upper level jet
structure over NY and PA. This time period is still quite far
out, but if this pattern holds, this could be something to pay
close attention to Tue into Wed.

Drier air starts to move in by Thursday along with a building
upper level ridge of high pressure from the west. This pattern
will allow conditions to dry out going into the latter half of
the week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with
highs in the 60s and 70s...and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions have once again been a bit slower than originally
anticipated to move in as of 06Z, but the expectation is that
widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions will move in over
the next few hours, along with occasional IFR restrictions. It
is uncertain if these restrictions will be more from low
ceilings or visby restrictions from patchy fog/mist. KAVP is
expected to remain VFR.

A return to VFR is expected at all terminals by the late
morning/early afternoon, before additional MVFR restrictions
start to move in from the west this evening with the next batch
of showers.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may bring
intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through
the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in
between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJG