034
FXUS61 KBGM 100537
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
137 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today,
especially this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become
strong. PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Friday as well. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer heading
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
245 PM Update...

An upper level trough is slowly digging into the region with a
shortwave visible on water vapor imagery moving in this
afternoon. The better lift associated with the shortwave is to
our south but a few showers are developing in central PA and
will move into the western Twin Tiers as well as the Finger
Lakes region this afternoon. Tonight, precipitation chances were
kept higher for NEPA as the 250 mb jet strengthens with NEPA
under the right entrance region so there is broad lift with a
bit of elevated instability. Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder are likely through the night with the activity slowly
shifting north into tomorrow.

Breaks of sun and clouds similar to today along with better mid
level lapse rates near 6C/km under the trough will help good
instability to develop. MLCAPE approaches 1500 J/kg with SBCAPE
up to near 3000 J/kg. Shear is pretty minimal in the low levels
with very little winds below 700 mb but we do have the 250 mb
jet overhead so there is good shear from 600 mb up to the
equilibrium level. There is also very dry air above 500 mb so
storms tomorrow that get deeper convection may be able to tap
into that elevated shear and strengthen with good lift through
the hail growth zone. The main concern with storms will be hail
and precipitation loading leading to microburst and downburst.
Without the low level shear, it will be tough to develop any
strong mesocyclones but there could be weak supercells that
develop with any persistent deep convection.

With the trough axis swinging through Thursday night, a drier
air mass advects in with surface high pressure. Mostly clear
skies likely leads to the formation of valley fog as we
typically see at this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Forecast...

A weak ridge builds into the region on Friday with mostly dry
conditions expected to hold in the morning. Showers and
thunderstorms start to creep into northeast PA by the afternoon as a
short wave slowly pushes up from the south. NAM and GFS brings
showers further into the Southern Tier region by Friday evening
while the EURO and Canadian show a drier solution. Any
showers/storms that develop come to an end by Friday night. A warm
front moves into the region by Saturday advecting warm and moist air
via southwesterly flow. This will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be warm as
highs will climb into the low to upper 80s both days. Dew points in
the mid to to low 70s will result in muggy conditions. Overnight
temperatures Friday and Saturday night will range in the low to
upper 60s. Conditions then dry out Saturday night before shower
chances increase and become a bit more widespread by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
300 PM Forecast...

A cold front will move through the region on Sunday bringing an
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty
on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move it through
while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this uncertainty,
shower chances will carry over into Monday given the slower
solutions. Upper level ridge and surface high pressure builds into
the region by Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions expected.
Temperatures on Sunday will be warm ahead of the front with
highs in the low to upper 80s. Northwest flow settles in behind
the front, but cold front will be weak and therefore it will
bring little relief. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid
80s. Southwest flow returns as ridge builds in midweek with
temperatures warming into the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period.
Fog is currently impacting ITH and will be possible at ELM and
RME as well, though confidence is lower at RME. Visibilities
will drop into IFR or even LIFR at ITH and ELM while RME should
only fall to MVFR. By 12z, fog should clear out as the terminals
return to VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon. Given the scattered coverage, confidence
was too low to include at any one terminal. If a shower or
storm were to pass over a terminal, then brief restrictions may
be possible. Guidance is hinting at fog again tonight/early
Friday morning, but this was left out for now as visibilities
did not begin to drop until right at the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be light and variable over the next 24 hours, though
thunderstorms today may have strong gusts.


Outlook...

Thursday night...Restrictions possible with some lingering showers
and thunderstorms around. If a showers and storms hit any
terminals, then fog will also be possible overnight. (Medium
confidence)

Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR; pop up showers/storms in
afternoon and evening possible. (Medium confidence)

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions. (Medium confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL