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000
FXUS61 KBGM 201041
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
641 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures and breezy today, with a chance for rain
showers during the afternoon hours. Some snow or graupel may
even mix in. A much welcomed dry stretch of weather will occur
Sunday through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 AM Update...

Some radar returns are showing up across the area, but a very
dry layer of air in the lower atmosphere is keeping any
precipitation from reaching the ground. Mist and low clouds
remain across the Catskills and Poconos, but should exit to the
east in the next couple hours. Temps tonight are currently in
the upper 40s and are expected to fall into the low 40s as drier
and cooler air moves in from the west.

The morning will be quiet with mostly clear skies. A trough
will slide across eastern Canada, with the southern edge of it
clipping our CWA. Vorticity advection over the region combined
with steep low level lapse rates associated with the trough and
clear skies allowing surface instability to form should develop
scattered rain showers during the early afternoon across the
Finger Lakes, moving east as the day progresses. Modeled
soundings show a slight chance for some graupel mixing in with
these rain showers, especially across higher elevations, later
in the afternoon as colder air moves in while low level
instability remains. Winds will pick up in the afternoon as
isobars pile up ahead of the approaching cold front. WNW winds
10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph will be possible, especially
across higher elevations. Showers are expected to dissipate
during the early evening hours as we loose daytime heating.
Temps will climb into the low 50s by late morning/early
afternoon, falling into the mid to upper 40s during the
afternoon as cold air filters in from the NW.

High pressure builds into the region during the evening hours.
The center of the high will be south of the CWA, putting our
region in NW flow and continued cool air advection. Temps
overnight will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across the
region.

High pressure remains over the region on Sunday, keeping
conditions quiet. The cold air mass remains with continued WNW
flow so temps will only climb into the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

The short term is looking quiet overall as a low amplitude
trough slowly moves off to the east Sunday night into Monday.
Zonal flow with 850 mb temperatures a little below climatology
will make for seasonable temperatures with mostly sunny skies.
Day time temperatures will rise into the 50s to low 60s on
Monday and Tuesday. Did end up blending in a little bit of the
NBM 90th for high temperatures as forecast soundings show dew
points pretty low and models tend to under forecast day time
temperatures on drier days. Dew points were also lowered for the
afternoons as forecast soundings have very dry air above the
mixed layer and with deeper mixing likely, some of that drier
air will make its way to the surface.

Tuesday night there will be a fairly sharp, neutrally tilted
500 mb shortwave dipping into the Great Lakes region that will
bring a chance of rain showers overnight into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures were bumped up from the NBM as forecast models
have pretty good warm air advection through the overnight hours
with plenty of low level moisture as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update

The long term is also looking quiet overall with the best
chance for any precipitation being at the beginning on Wednesday
into Thursday. With good agreement in deterministic and
ensembles in timing of the 500 mb shortwave moving through
Wednesday, precipitation chances were kept high Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. Thursday into Friday is a little more
uncertain as the GFS is trying to phase a northern shortwave
with the departing 500 mb shortwave with a potent cold snap
moving in. In this solution the 500 mb heights fall to near 520
dm and 850 mb temperatures below -10C which would support lake
effect snow. The GEFS ensembles are also picking up on the phase
in the overnight runs. The ECMWF and EPS are not pointing at
that solution at all keeping the waves separate with a more
progressive pattern. As of now, given the complexity of the wave
phase and lower performance of the GFS and GEFS with some of
these phases this spring, decided to lean more towards the ECMWF
and EPS and keeping chances of precipitation lower Thursday
into Friday as well as a little bit warmer with temperatures.

Late week into next weekend, there is better ensemble agreement
of a western US trough which would increase the chances of east
coast ridging and SW flow. Temperatures should moderate with
some increasing chances of precipitation into next weekend as we
get warmer and more moist flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR conditions have lingered much longer at AVP than guidance
suggested tonight. Conditions here should lift to VFR by mid
morning and remain VFR through the period.

VFR conditons expected at all other terminals through the TAF
period. Some scattered rain showers are expected to develop
across the area during the afternoon, but should not introduce
any restrictions. Winds will pick up this afternoon, with
10-15kts sustained, gusting to 25kts out of the WNW expected.
Winds should lighten up in the evening.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...JTC