Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 051203
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
603 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP AROUND 18Z...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST...AND AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

NON CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KHIB/KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE





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