Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251149
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

At 325 AM, numerous showers and thunderstorms were moving across
the Northland. We have even had a report of pea size hail in West
Duluth this morning. Further south, additional showers and
thunderstorms were spreading into Minnesota from the south.
Temperatures were generally in the 60s.

The focus for today through Monday will be resolving precipitation
timing and amounts. Water vapor imagery shows a stream of moisture
from Mexico northward into south central Canada, while an upper
level low rotates through the Dakotas. The upper level low is
expected to rotate northward today, while an elongated trough
develops overnight and into Monday and moves through MN and WI.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream northward across
the area this morning, while pushing eastward. The main area of
showers and storms should be exiting the eastern portion of the
CWA by midday, while the dry slot moves in behind it. We could
even see a bit of sunshine for most areas for a few hours today.
The sunshine should help to boost temperatures into the upper 60s
to around 70. Behind the dry slot, the elongated upper level
trough will result in an increase of showers this afternoon and
into Monday. The showers will start to move into the western CWA
by mid to late afternoon, and they will spread eastward and become
more widespread overnight.

Monday is shaping up to be a blustery day across the Northland, as
the elongated upper level trough transitions to an upper level
low over Lake Superior. Strong west to northwest winds will
develop overnight and on Monday, with numerous showers across the
western Lake Superior region through Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

An upper low will linger over the upper Great Lakes early in the
work week resulting in clouds and rain showers for parts of
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as late as Wednesday
morning. However, a strong mid-level ridge and surface high building
in from the west will result in mild and sunny skies through the
rest of the work week into the weekend.

On the synoptic scale a stacked low will be North of Superior Monday
night, with fairly good model agreement for the low to be centered
around Geraldton, ON (CYGQ). On Tuesday this low drifts south-
southeast across the upper Great Lakes, with parts of the Northland
under the cloud shield associated with the stacked low. Increased
the chances for precipitation a bit as guidance has trended a bit
slower than previous runs, and depending on how fast the drier
airmass builds in from the west, rain could last into Wednesday
morning across parts of the MN Arrowhead into NW Wisconsin.
Temperatures will be cooler in the wake of the low, though the
window for a chilly night seems limited given a warm air advection
regime will return by Thursday. Ridge axis moves across the Plains
and upper Midwest through the weekend. Some minor model disagreement -
specifically the ECMWF which depicts an upper low over the Ohio valley
this weekend when the GFS/GEFS/GEM have a broad ridge - but ignoring
the outlier this looks like a fairly reliable forecast. Highs in the
low 50s to low 60s Tuesday, but warmer mid week through the weekend
with highs in the 60s to near 70. Lows coolest Tuesday night as
skies clear out across much of the Northland with lows in the mid
30s across inland areas, but these too rise through the weekend in
the 40s to as warm as the mid 50s this weekend. While these
temperatures are far from record-breaking, they do continue the
trend of a mild fall thus far.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A brief improvement to VFR conditions today before MVFR to IFR
conditions prevail in the late afternoon through the evening
hours. Morning rain showers will quickly end from west to east
resulting in a period of VFR ceilings today. However, as sunshine
breaks through additional clouds and showers then develop in the
afternoon, resulting in MVFR ceilings developing. A more steady
rain moves in tonight across northern Minnesota with MVFR ceilings
continuing and the possibility of MVFR visibility. West to
northwest winds will ramp up today, continuing into the night with
gusts to 20-25 knots as a cold front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  48  57  44 /  70  70  50  20
INL  68  48  55  42 /  60  70  50  30
BRD  64  47  59  43 /  30  50  20   0
HYR  69  48  56  43 /  70  60  60  30
ASX  73  51  58  46 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LSZ121-
     146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday
     for LSZ144-145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM


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