Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 281217

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
717 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A progressive pattern across North America will result in a weak
area of low pressure moving across the upper Midwest and then a high
building across the northern Plains today into tomorrow. In the warm
sector of the low today temperatures will be mild with dew points in
the low to mid 50s along the MN/WI border and into northwest
Wisconsin in the southerly flow ahead of a surface low deepening over
the eastern Dakotas today. Rain chances will be minimal across the
Northland given the warm frontal zone will be well to the north of
the international border, but expect abundant cloud cover as low-
level stratus persists while mid/high level clouds move across the
region aloft. Best chance for rain today will be along the North
Shore into the MN Arrowhead during a period of low level convergence
this afternoon as the low/sfc trough axis moves across. Highs in the
upper 40s across the tip of the Arrowhead, but otherwise in the mid
50s to mid 60s - feeling more like early October.

Overnight cloudy skies will persists in the northwest flow behind
the low. Expect winds to be breezy, especially across northeast
Minnesota where wind speeds around 10mph are expected. Showers
possible north of the Iron Range as the cooler air aloft introduces
a bit of instability. Lows in the 40s.

Cooler Saturday but temperatures still on the mild side of normal.
Light northwest winds as high pressure will be building in from the
west through the day. With the progressive pattern in place, another
disturbance will move across the upper Mississippi river valley late
Saturday as a mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of the Rockies
Saturday resulting in a chance for showers to parts of the Northland
- mainly from Brainerd to Lake Mille Lacs and south. Highs in the
mid 40s in northeast Minnesota to low 50s in northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The active weather pattern continues into next week. high pressure
will make a brief appearance Sunday. However, it will be quickly
followed by another low that tracks into the Dakotas Sunday night,
then translates across the Northland Monday into Tuesday. This low
will place the forecast area in the warm sector with gusty southerly
winds Monday. The warm air advection will lead to another day of
above normal temperatures with highs reaching the 50s to low 60s.

Upper level ridging returns for mid week, along with temperatures
near to a few degrees above seasonable normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 715 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The forecast area will remain in the warm sector with saturated
low levels and widespread drizzle through the early afternoon. All
terminals will see IFR flight conditions through at least 16Z. A
frontal passage later today will bring a transition to west, then
northwest winds, along with gradually lifting ceilings into the
evening. However, in locations that do clear out, the cold air
advection overnight will allow for low clouds to make a return.


DLH  57  45  49  34 /  20  10  20  10
INL  53  40  44  28 /  20  30  20  10
BRD  63  45  49  32 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  61  47  52  35 /  10  10  20  10
ASX  61  48  52  41 /  20  10  20  10


LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140-141.



LONG TERM...Graning
AVIATION...Graning is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.