Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 172232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172232
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-180000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Areas affected...Southern Alabama and the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...
Valid 172232Z - 180000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.
SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are expected to persist through
the evening with a threat for all severe hazards.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with embedded supercell structures
continues to move east along the Alabama/Florida border. The EVX VWP
shows around 300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH with a 35 to 40 knot low-level
jet. This strengthening low-level flow is also resulting in
additional convection developing off the Gulf (which can be seen
from Okaloosa to Washington counties around 2230Z. This will likely
continue to support a messy storm mode which, combined with very
weak low-level lapse rates (per 18Z LIX VWP), are the primary
limiting factor to a greater tornado/hail threat. However, given the
strong shear present, a tornado threat will continue through the
evening, particularly with the lead cell moving through eastern
Holmes county at 2230Z.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30458804 31158670 31178538 30958470 30678454 30468513
30318596 30288684 30278776 30458804