432
FXUS66 KOTX 110911
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
211 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of
the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in
the lower 90s. Breezy winds will occur across portions of central
and eastern Washington Sunday and Monday. The weather pattern for
early next week is uncertain, however temperatures will be
slightly cooler with increasing clouds, and a small chance of
precipitation for the Cascade Crest, northeast Washington, and the
northern half of the Idaho Panhandle. A few embedded
thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon over northeast
Washington and north Idaho.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday: High pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern before that ridge is dampened by a shortwave
trough. First today and Sunday will be mostly sunny, save for a
few more clouds transiting northeast WA through ID today. Winds
will increase a bit in the afternoon hours, subsiding in most
areas except the lee of the Cascades where drainage winds will
persist. Temperatures yesterday pushed into the upper 70s to low
80s in most areas, so today and Sunday are expected to be similar
to or slightly warmer in most areas. A few areas may push into the
low 90s in the deeper Columbia Basin. The primary exception will
be because of the increased onshore flow Sunday this will knock
temperatures back a little near the Cascades compared to today.

Then Sunday night into Monday the shortwave system moves into the
region. Look for variable cloud cover, with breezy conditions.
Limited shower chances will be found near the Cascade crest and
Canadian border Sunday night, expanding over more of the northern
WA and ID Panhandle mountains for Monday. Some guidance continues
suggest some potential over Spokane/CdA, so I did increase PoPs
some in these areas compared to the NBM. There will also be
limited t-storm chances especially on Monday afternoon, with the
shortwave encountering a projected 200-400 J/kg of SBCAPE. However
Sunday evening may also see a few embedded t-storms. These
chances will largely be toward the NE WA and N ID Mountains. As
for winds, Sunday night into Monday the shortwave will bring some
of the stronger winds near the Cascades expanding out into the
western Columbia Basin with sustained speeds between 15-25 mph,
with gusts up to about 40 mph. Elsewhere winds will be more
notable on Monday afternoon, with gusts near 15-25 mph.
Temperatures will cool about 5-10 degrees on Monday compared to
Sunday, with highs in the 70s and maybe areas pushing into the low
80s in the deeper Columbia Basin and L-C Valley. /Solveig

Monday night through Friday: Following a cold front passage on
Sunday and shortwave early Monday, models are depicting another
shortwave to pass through the Inland Northwest Monday evening. This
will continue the chances for thunderstorms across northeast
Washington and north Idaho through the evening on Monday and again
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 70s
to low 80s.

Wednesday through the end of the week, models are split nearly in
half on the pattern. About half show a deeper trough to move into
the northwest and the other half show the  ridge rebounding. These
two scenarios result in significantly different outcomes to the
sensible weather. The troughing pattern would bring daytime
temperatures down into the 50s and 60s, breezy winds, and small
chances for precipitation. The ridging pattern would keep
temperatures in the 70s and 80s with clear skies and dry weather.
Since the models are quite split on the extended forecast, the
current forecast for the region is a blend, so it will likely change
quite a bit over the next couple of days. /vmt


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites under high pressure.
Winds increase a bit in the afternoon with infrequent gusts near
13-18 mph in the 1300-1800 PDT time frame.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  53  83  53  75  46 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  81  53  80  52  72  46 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        78  51  78  51  71  46 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Lewiston       84  57  86  56  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       84  50  85  50  75  43 /   0   0   0  10  30  10
Sandpoint      79  52  79  51  70  47 /   0   0   0  10  20  30
Kellogg        76  54  77  53  69  48 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     89  53  89  55  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      89  59  87  56  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           89  56  89  55  79  48 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$