Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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443 FXUS66 KOTX 092234 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 334 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend. Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures reaching the 80s, with a few areas rising into the lower 90s. The weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however a cooling trend is likely with increasing clouds, and a small chance of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, extreme northeast Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday: Ridge of high pressure will build over the region with mostly clear skies and light winds through Saturday. Temperatures will warm with Saturday being the warmest day across central WA, and eastern WA and north ID having similar temps for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees above average, topping out in the upper 70s to around 90. Sunday the ridge will begin to flatten as a wave approaches the area. Winds will increase during the afternoon from the west or southwest. Current forecast has gusts 15 to 25 mph for most locations, but an area from south of Omak down across the Waterville Plateau has a 50-70% chance of gusts to 30 mph. Gusts to 30 mph is also shown across the higher terrain of the Cascades as well as down towards George, Vantage and the Kittitas Valley. *Impacts: People not yet acclimated to these warm temperatures could experience heat related issues if outside this weekend. Also, river and lake temperatures remain cold...in the 40s to low 50s. Hypothermia and loss of muscle control can set in quickly when swimming in cold waters. Rivers are also running swiftly. Monday through Thursday: The ridge flattens Monday. Some of the ensembles show a wave moving through, but wouldn`t do much more than bring an increase in mid and high clouds as well as keep conditions breezy. Temperatures will lower about 6 to 10 degrees. As we head toward Tuesday through Thursday there is a lot of discrepancy as to if the ridge will build back up, or if a trough will bring some light precip to portions of the area. The 100 member ensemble forecast is split right down the middle 50/50 by Thursday. If we are troughy, temps will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, if we are under the ridge temps will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Currently have a 20% chance of light showers for the Cascade crest, along the Canadian border and for portions of the ID Panhandle. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds over the region. Winds will be light through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is very high confidence for VFR conditions across all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 47 78 49 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 46 77 49 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 46 75 49 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 50 82 54 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 43 81 47 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 75 48 79 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 48 75 52 76 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 48 85 51 89 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 55 83 57 88 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 51 85 53 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$