421
FXUS66 KOTX 142143
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
243 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Shower and thunderstorm chances are mainly confined to the
northern mountains this afternoon and evening. Additional light
shower activity is expected Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and
Wednesday have the potential to be cool with highs in the 60s and
low 70s with periods of rain over north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington. Winds will be breezy from the west on Tuesday
with potential for gusts near 25 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Weak energy moving through northern Washington and Idaho
will keep isolated to scattered showers going through the evening
with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms...with slightly higher
probability towards 40% right along the Canadian border. That will
wane with a renewed chance towards sunrise as the next wave moves
in. Westerly winds will be breezy to 20 mph this evening across
portions of the Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin and up onto the
West Plains. Low temps overnight will be in the 40s for most of
the northern valleys and mid 40s to low 50s for the rest of the
region.

Sunday through Wednesday: Synoptic pattern shows one low moving
down the coast Sunday and then beginning to move inland Monday
into Nevada. As this low moves into southern Idaho and western MT
Tuesday, another trough will dip down the coast. This will keep us
under the influence of the trough, though the best dynamics will
be to our south. We do have mention of showers for portions of
eastern WA, the ID Panhandle and Cascade crest Sunday through
Wednesday. Sunday several of the cam models are showing a band of
showers moving up during the afternoon, but they waffle in
placement between eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. So there is
some uncertainty if we see much rain at all, even as we continue
through the Wednesday forecast. Chance of precipitation ranges
from 20-50%, with the higher chances in the central and southern
ID Panhandle.

Sunday there will be a push of northerly winds down the Okanogan
Valley with them increasing Monday morning and early afternoon.
There is a 60-70% chance of seeing gusts to 25 mph from Omak to
Ephrata. Tuesday we will see more widespread westerly winds
across the Waterville Plateau onto the Basin and portions of the
Palouse and Spokane area with a 25-35% chance of gusts to 25 mph.
Monday temperatures warm ahead of the low moving inland into the
mid 70s to around 80. Thereafter temps cool several degrees so
that by Wednesday highs are in the mid 60s to low 70s. Low temps
will generally be in the 40s.

Thursday through Sunday: Thursday ensemble guidance suggests the
trough moving into the desert southwest. They seem to want to
bring a ridge toward the region, but there is uncertainty as to
how far inland to bring the ridge. And 35% of the models suggest
us remaining in the influence of a trough over the area. Kept with
the idea of near or slightly below average temperatures with a 20%
chance of showers along the crest of the Cascades and ID
Panhandle. Average high temps are in the 70s with average lows in
the low 40s to low 50s. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. A boundary continues from
Lind to KCOE and south towards PUW. Light precip will fall out of
it with cigs down to 6k ft. Winds will be breezy this afternoon
in east and central Washington with gusts generally 20kts or less.
There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms right along the
Canadian border this afternoon. Clouds will thin this evening
before the next cloud band moving into southern Oregon pivots and
sweeps mid and high clouds into the region from the south and
east. Light precip will move into the region aft 12Z across SE WA
and S ID Panhandle and move northward through the morning. Some
models discrepancies. Higher confidence of of KPUW/KLWS seeing
-ra with lower confidence for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is
moderate to high for cigs to remain VFR with any showers. Sites
across the north from KOMK to KSZT may have cigs lower closer to
5k ft AGL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        48  70  50  77  51  73 /  10  30  20  10  10  20
Coeur d`Alene  48  69  50  77  51  70 /  10  30  20  10  20  40
Pullman        46  64  45  70  48  65 /  10  50  30  20  30  40
Lewiston       57  72  55  76  57  73 /  20  50  40  30  40  40
Colville       38  71  40  78  40  76 /  40  30  10   0  10  10
Sandpoint      44  68  48  75  48  70 /  40  30  20  10  20  40
Kellogg        50  67  52  72  54  63 /  10  40  30  30  30  60
Moses Lake     47  73  51  80  49  78 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      51  72  54  80  54  75 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           49  75  50  81  50  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$