Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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547 FXUS64 KOUN 152005 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 305 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the short term period this afternoon and tonight with the severe risk returning Thursday afternoon. An upper trough will be digging across the Southwestern U.S. approaching the Southern Plains with a surface low settled across western Texas through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Bisecting the surface low are two boundaries, a cold front stretched across the eastern Panhandles and a dryline across western Texas. Our CWA remains to the east in the warm sector and will continue to destabilize with very moist shallow air at the surface. Could see storms start initiating by 5 PM as diurnal heating breaks the cap on the Southern High Plains while the aforementioned trough starts ejecting shortwaves through the mid-levels across our CWA. With MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and 30-40 kts effective shear, the environment for storms to grow in would be sufficient for clusters of organized severe thunderstorms with supercells to be ongoing across our area overnight. Northern, western, and a portion of central Oklahoma will be in the areas for the highest risk of severe storms which could produce up to 80 mph downburst/microburst wind gusts and up to baseball size hail. The tornado risk will be lowest due to the limitation of the low-level moisture. Although the severe risk tonight should ramp down during the early morning hours as instability weakens, thunderstorms mostly elevated will persist through the morning hours. As far as surface boundaries, the dryline will remain well to our southwest but could see the cold front push into northwestern Oklahoma early Thursday morning and becoming stationary across our CWA by the evening, but models still performing poorly with the location of where the front will stall out. Moisture ascent over the frontal boundary with shortwave disturbances in the mid-level will continue favoring storm development on Thursday with a severe risk returning during the afternoon into the evening hours. The severe risk on Thursday will be lower with large hail (up to golf balls) and damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) as the severe risks. Although not expecting any widespread flooding, heavy rainfall training over saturated ground could result in some localized flooding especially in poor drainage and flood prone areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 The upper trough & surface front finally move through on Friday with storm POPs coming to an end from west to east across our CWA. The polar westerlies shifting more northward across the U.S. Northern Plains on Saturday with a trough setting up over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile the subtropical jet builds a weak ridge over the Southern Plains initiating the start of a heating trend this weekend as temperature rise about 10 degrees warmer than climatically average for mid May. Will see afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s across our CWA this weekend. South winds make a gusty return on Sunday along with increasing gulf moisture reforming a dryline across the Southern High Plains. Our heating trend peaks on Monday with highs in the 90s areawide (upper 90s across our western CWA) while combined with upper 60s dewpoints could make it feel quite muggy. Although staying mostly dry across most of our area, models suggest MCS type systems Sunday & Monday nights across the Central Plains but do have storm POPs adjacent into northcentral Oklahoma. Late morning mixing into a strong nocturnal low-level jet will result in windy conditions each afternoon early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions are in place areawide currently, with south or southeast winds observed at most sites. Showers and thunderstorms will expand this evening, impacting most of the TAF site through the overnight period with lower ceilings and visibility at times. Showers/storms will push slowly southward Thursday morning, with mainly VFR/MVFR ceilings lingering in their wake through most of the morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 77 60 77 / 80 60 60 40 Hobart OK 60 76 57 80 / 80 60 70 20 Wichita Falls TX 63 76 60 80 / 40 60 60 20 Gage OK 56 74 53 82 / 80 50 40 10 Ponca City OK 61 75 60 77 / 90 60 60 30 Durant OK 67 81 63 81 / 10 40 60 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...08