770
FXUS64 KOUN 142302
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
602 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trough over the Intermountain Regions of the U.S. Northwest
will be digging through the Central Rockies and Central Plains which
will be providing upper support for a storm system coming through
Wednesday through early (Thursday & Friday) into the long-term
period. For tonight prior to the arrival of the main wave, a few
short-wave vorticity embedded disturbances in the mid-levels will be
ejected downstream from the main wave through weak ridging over the
Central Plains extending as far south as northern Oklahoma. Model
sounding analysis consistently suggesting mid-levels may be steep
enough for elevated convection although weak instability would keep
any of these high-based storm cells below severe. As a result, will
maintain low (20%) POPs after midnight for weak elevated convective
storms across northern into a small portion of central Oklahoma.

A surface low will be settling across western Texas through the
Panhandle tonight which will be shifting low-level flow southerly
although moisture return won`t start until Wednesday afternoon which
will be strongest along & east of the I-35 corridor.  Bisecting the
surface low will be a weak Pacific cold front with the dryline
stretched across western Texas all forming a warm sector to the
east.  Will see the warm sector moderately destabilize by late
afternoon heating with a weakening cap across our western CWA
through the Panhandles where late afternoon surface-based deep
convection may start initiating.  Deep-layer shear may be sufficient
for severe storms to start organizing across western Oklahoma by
sundown.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Persisting "wet" Wednesday night, Thursday into Friday during the
long term period.  Organized severe storm clusters to supercell
storms will be ongoing and increasing in coverage and strength
Wednesday evening through the early morning hours of Thursday as the
southerly low-level jet strengthens with stronger shortwaves coming
through aloft.  All of our area will have a risk for severe storms
late Wednesday (up to a SPC slight risk) through overnight except
for perhaps southcentral through southeast Oklahoma.  Severe hazards
will include large hail and damaging wind gusts.  By Thursday, the
main upper trough deepens across the Southwestern U.S. overtaking a
near stalled upper low with this system eventually coming through
the Southern Plains on Friday. This upper system will push the
surface boundary/cold front into our area on Thursday although
models suggesting it will move slowly or perhaps stall out but
models show low confidence where it will set up?  With a stalled
surface boundary and additional but stronger shortwaves moving
through the mid-levels with instability increasing diurnally, will
see increasing POPs with a returning severe risk across all but the
eastern one-quarter of our CWA with low-end severe hail and wind
gusts being the severe risks for Thursday. Preciptable water
increases quite a bit on Thursday (up to 1.5 inches) with higher
POPS and heavier rainfall and more widespread over our area. As a
result, there is also a low-end risk for a flooding hazard,
especially in areas with saturated ground and poor drainage due to
storm training. Storm POPS will gradually end during the day Friday
from west to east as the upper trough finally moves through.

A broad ridge in the warmer subtropical jet starts building on
Saturday over the Southern Plains as the northerly (polar) jet is
shifted northward flowing across the northern half of the country.
As a result, we`ll start getting unseasonably warmer from Saturday
into early next week with much of our western CWA rising into the
lower 90s to upper 80s with the rest of our area seeing highs in the
upper 80s to 90 degrees.  Factor in upper 60s dewpoints by Monday
and it could start feeling rather muggy as well. One exception could
be Sunday with milder temperatures due to a "wet and cooler" GFS
solution which expels a shortwave through the ridge with a weak
Pacific cold front pushing through while the ECMWF & NBM has a "dry
and warm" solution persisting.  Both models also differ with
nocturnal MCS systems every night from Saturday through mid next
week affecting northern Oklahoma.  Due to model uncertainty, will go
with the dry and persisting warm NBM/ECMWF solution for Saturday
night on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Light southeast wind expected overnight with mainly clear skies.
Mid/high clouds will be on the increase by Wednesday morning with
increasing south winds. Gusts above 20kts expected by mid-morning
at most sites. A weak front will be located across northwest
Oklahoma by afternoon with perhaps some storm development near
this boundary. Have included a PROB30 at WWR late in the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  86  63  80 /  20  10  60  60
Hobart OK         60  87  61  81 /  10  30  70  60
Wichita Falls TX  61  87  64  81 /   0  10  40  60
Gage OK           57  83  56  77 /  10  40  80  40
Ponca City OK     56  84  61  79 /  10  20  80  50
Durant OK         59  88  66  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30