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000
FXUS65 KPSR 161716
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1016 AM MST Tue Apr 16 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist through the next week. Temperatures
today will run about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday before
afternoon highs further warm into the low to mid 90s starting
Wednesday. Above normal temperatures will continue through the
latter half of this week and into next week as lower desert highs
climb into the 90s each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning WV imagery showed the upper low that brought below
normal temperatures to our area yesterday is now beginning to push
east of the Central Rockies. As it does so, 500 mb heights will
continue to rise to around 576 dm across the forecast area today and
thus will promote much warmer temperatures for this afternoon.
Temperatures this afternoon will be about 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday as lower desert highs warm into the mid to upper 80s and
to around 90 degrees in some areas. This will lead to the return of
widespread Minor HeatRisk to nearly all lower desert areas. Ensemble
guidance then show 500 mb heights further rising to around 582 dm as
flat ridging continues to build in across the region. This will in
turn lead to temperatures further warming Wednesday, pushing daytime
highs to nearly 10 degrees above normal with readings in the low to
mid 90s.

Ensemble cluster analysis show excellent agreement that flat ridging
will continue through the latter half of the week, though pronounced
troughing over the northern CONUS will inhibit further amplification
of the ridge and limit the amount of additional warming we see.
Nonetheless, temperatures will be well above normal during the
latter half of the week as highs top out in the low to mid 90s each
day. The NBM shows high confidence in this temperature forecast with
very little spread to be noted. Following the passage of a weak,
progressive trough that will move through late Friday/Saturday,
which will provide little if any sensible impact, ridging will
amplify slightly across the Southwest and will push highs into the
mid to upper 90s for the start of next week. NBM probabilities for
reaching or exceeding 100 degrees peaks around 20-40% for some of
the warmer locales next Monday. Dry conditions will persist through
the next week with no chances for rain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather issues will exist through the TAF period under mostly
clear skies. Winds will exhibit typical directional tendencies
with speeds largely remaining below 10 kt sustained. Extended
periods of nearly calm conditions will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will persist through the next week.
Increasing high pressure over the region will yield above normal
temperatures starting today. Daily highs will rise into the low to
mid 90s each day across the lower deserts starting Wednesday and
continuing through the remainder of this week. Min RHs each day will
be in the 5-15% range, while overnight Max RHs will be in the 20-40%
range for most areas. Light, diurnal winds will be favored with
typical afternoon breezes gusting upwards of 20-25 mph at times.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Whittock/18
FIRE WEATHER...Smith