840
FXUS64 KSHV 090505
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1205 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Storms continue to weaken on a widespread basis and we have
allowed Tornado Watch 210 to expire.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Expanded Tornado Watch 210 in time to midnight and included some
Arkansas counties for a while longer too active SVR warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

No other changes at this time except to remove the Tornado Watch
headline from the zone forecast wording for the rest of tonight.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before
precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi-
zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift
eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across
the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and
moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances
will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Widespread haze originating from Mexico and Central America will
result in some instances of MVFR visibilities at the start of the
period. A complex of strong to severe convection is expected to
enter portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas around
09/02z before moving southeast affecting most TAF sites. The
storms should begin to rapidly weaken after midnight local time,
so convection was not mentioned at KMLU or KLFK. Low clouds are
expected to rapidly develop after the storms dissipate resulting
in widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions. A slow improvement is
expected after daybreak Thursday, but VFR conditions should return
to most sites by 09/18z. More strong to severe thunderstorms are
anticipated to affect Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas,
potentially affecting KTYR, near the end of this TAF cycle.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  83  62  82 /  50   0   0   0
MLU  65  81  58  82 /  60   0   0   0
DEQ  58  80  53  81 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  62  81  57  81 /  40   0   0   0
ELD  61  80  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  65  82  60  80 /  40   0   0   0
GGG  65  82  60  80 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  67  84  62  81 /  40   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09