Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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801 FXUS64 KSHV 162257 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 557 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 An upper-level trough continues to pivot eastward from southern NM into western TX with increasing SW flow aloft and large scale ascent farther east across the Ark-La-Tex. As a result, fairly robust convection continues to expand deeper into our region with the strongest thunderstorms confined to parts of Deep East TX. In fact, one of these prompted a severe thunderstorm warning within the past hour. This low-end severe potential will persist through the remainder of this afternoon across Deep East TX and adjacent parts of western LA but should begin to wane shortly thereafter as the higher instability axis shifts farther south. Looking farther north, convection has generally remained rather tame with widespread showers and embedded storms containing some pockets of heavy rainfall. Based on these current trends, very little has changed in terms of the flooding potential with the Flood Watch remaining intact for the same areas invof and south of the I-20 corridor. The only change was to move up the expiration time to 7 AM on Friday since the bulk of heavy rain should exit the region by that time. In the watch area, additional 1-3 inch amounts will be possible through Friday morning with only light rain expected thereafter as the primary trough axis shifts east into the Southern Plains. Even with cloud cover persisting into Friday afternoon, high temperatures will generally top out in the the lower 80s while overnight lows will range through the 60s both tonight and Friday night with lingering convection still possible. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Beyond Friday night, the chance of at least isolated convection will persist across our eastern zones through Saturday with the passage of the main trough axis. Along with lingering clouds, this will maintain high temperatures in the 80s on Saturday afternoon before a warming trend commences during the latter half of the weekend with an upper-level ridge gradually building into the region on Sunday. This ridge will serve as the dominant weather feature through early next week as temperatures push higher into the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the remaining forecast period. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the next major trough and cold front will shift into the mid-section of the country and slowly chip away at the ridge, helping usher it farther eastward across the SE CONUS. As a result, expect at least some lower end rain chances to return by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday along with slightly milder temperatures by the middle of next week and likely beyond that with the potential of the front stalling out somewhere across our region by late Wednesday into the late week timeframe. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 For the 17/00Z TAF update, active weather will continue with MVFR vis/cigs or worse after 17/06Z through the rest of the period due to VCTS/-TSRA. IFR cigs and some FG remain possible by 17/12Z-17/15Z. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 82 68 87 / 90 30 30 20 MLU 66 82 66 84 / 90 40 40 30 DEQ 63 81 62 84 / 60 70 30 10 TXK 65 82 65 86 / 80 50 40 10 ELD 64 82 64 83 / 80 50 40 20 TYR 66 81 66 87 / 70 20 20 10 GGG 66 82 66 86 / 80 30 20 10 LFK 66 82 66 88 / 90 30 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ136-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...16