Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 052006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED WNW-
ESE ACRS FAR SOUTHERN VA. ALOFT...CAN SEE CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER KY ON WV SATELLITE...ALLOWING H5 FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE S/SW ACRS THE MID ATLC. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACRS THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE
VA/NE NC. LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...AND FORECAST WILL SHIFT
LIKELY POPS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL VA INCLUDING METRO RICHMOND AFTER
23Z. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC FRONT LIFTING NORTH...AND
SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF DEEP LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENE LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST HOLDING ON TO
CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH...ESP SRN 1/2 OF CWA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S N/NW
TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
~30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING...THEN MAINLY JUST A
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. QPF TONIGHT
AVERAGES 0.50-075" INLAND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AT THE COAST.
LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING STORMS BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO LIMITED OF A THREAT FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HIGHEST POPS TRANSITIONING A BIT TO
THE N AND W AS UPR LVL LO SLOLY EXITS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HI
TEMPS IN THE L/M80S NW TO THE U80S/ARND 90F SE. ATTM...TOTAL QPF
THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL AVG 1.OO-1.50 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL VA TO
INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF 1/2 INCH OR LESS OVR MOST
OF ERN VA TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS
ARE CERTAINLY PSBL DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR
REPEATING SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

BY TUE...THE PATTERN FINALLY LOOKS A BIT DRIER AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE MTNS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVLOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLC COAST. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC...AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S MOST AREAS (FOR NOW STAYED A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE
TO MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDS). HI TEMPS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE JUST A 20% POP CONFINED TO THE MID/LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOST PLACES. WARM/HUMID TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN LWR-MID 70S. WED SHOULD BEGIN DRY...WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHC THAN TUE (30-40%) FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AND HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SERN U.S.
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT AFT/EVE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY (20-30%
POP). A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF TSTMS. LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR
80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYING ACRS SRN VA...WITH ISLTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THAT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N
ACRS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN INTO MON CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
N OF THE REGION MON NGT/TUE MORNG...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUE INTO WED. ISLTD LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THOSE TWO DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. E WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL
BECOME SE OR S ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SSE 10-15 KT ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE THRU
FRI AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS. ISOLD TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN...BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG/DAP
MARINE...JDM


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