Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030120
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
920 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR THE
VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING COLD FRONT APPRCHG MTS WITH SFC TROF OUT AHEAD
OF IT EAST OF THE MTS. CONVECTION THAT FIRED UP AHEAD OF THIS TROF
IS HAVING A TUFF TIME SURVIVING THE TRIP EAST AS IT HITS THE CAP
OVR THE FA ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF HTNG. EVEN THE LONE PULSE TSTRM
THAT MOVD ACROSS MECKLENBURG CNTY DSPTD FAIRLY QUICKLY.

LATEST MODELS BRING MAIN CD FRNT ACROSS THE FA AFTR MIDNIGHT WITH
ONLY LIMITED MSTR GIVEN THE AVBL WARM AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. WILL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN A LATE NIGHT FROPA. 30
POP NRN & WRN CNTYS....20 POP ELSEWHERE. WARM & MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONT WASHES OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED, AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL AND DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.
MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED AS WEAK
SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN
CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS WED/THU...CENTERED
MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE SRN LOCAL
AREA. WILL SEE A LOWER RAIN CHANCE ON FRIDAY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HOWEVER, WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT POP GIVEN
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY +1 STD DEV THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEG INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS AND
LWR TEMPS AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC. FOR FRI NGT/SAT MORNG...WITH THE FRONT STILL W OF THE
AREA EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LGT S/SW
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN AND EVENING HRS SAT AS
THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA. POPS RANGE FM 50% NW TO 20% FAR SE. LO TEMPS
FRI NGT IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S WITH HI TEMPS SAT IN THE UPR 80S
TO LWR 90S.

FOR SUN...INCREASED POPS TO 50-60% AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO SRN VA/NC.
A (LWR) CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA CST AND WAVES OF LO PRES PASSING ALONG THE
FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S SUN
AND MON WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES WITH NO IMMEDIATE THREAT FROM
CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND REACHES
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RUN BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KFT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND
10 KNOTS DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTN...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SRN PORTIONS. THIS MAY
IMPACT ECG AND ORF IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS WILL BE PSBL THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PSBL WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HI
PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC...LEADING TO SLY WINDS AVGG 10-15 KT OVR THE
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. EXPECT 1-2 FT WAVES OVR
THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. A WEAKENING FRONT DROPS INTO
THE AREA LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...VEERING WINDS FM SW TO N. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST
FRONTAL AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT THRU FRI
AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SHIFT FROM N MIDDAY WED TO THE
E/SE WED NGT. WINDS GENLY SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15
KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NGT/SAT. NEXT FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED: 101 F)
ORF: 97/1993 (NEW RECORD ESTABLISHED: 99 F)
SBY: 97/1980 (TIED RECORD)

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST TIME RIC HAS HIT 100 SINCE JULY 8. LAST TIME
RIC HIT AT LEAST 101 WAS WHEN THEY HIT 102 ON 7/8/2012.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ






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