Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING OFF THE CST THIS EVE...RESULTING IN DP LYRD
NWLY FLO OF COLDER AIR INTO THE FA. VRB CLDS/MCLDY CONDS ON GOING
ATTM...EVEN SCT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH
AREAS MNLY E OF I 95 PAST COUPLE OF HRS. NW WNDS HAVE INCRSD TO
AVG 15-25 MPH...W/ GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH (HIGHEST MNLY ON THE ERN
SHORE). RMNG WINDY THROUGH THE NGT. WIND ADVISORY TO RMN THROUGH
MDNGT ON THE ERN SHORE FOR PSBL 45-50 MPH GUSTS. OTRW...XPCG GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH ON AVG ELSW BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE (WELL) AFT
MDNGT. XPCG CLDNS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVE HRS...RESULTING IN
MNLY SKC OVRNGT. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 40S WILL DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVE...THEN DROP OUT MNLY FM THE UPR TEENS TO L20S LATE. COMBO WNDS
AND TEMPS RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LWR TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN SFC HI PRES ARRIVES FM THE WNW ON SAT RESULTING IN
DRY/CHILLY CONDS. STARTING OUT MNLY SUNNY...W/ (MID/HI LVL) CLDNS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE RGN FM THE W BY LT IN THE DAY. HI
TEMPS FM THE L30S OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TO THE U30S TO L40S
ELSW. MEANWHILE...LO PRES NOW IN THE SW CONUS WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCRSG SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE
OF THAT SYS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TWD THE LWR/MID MS VLY LT SAT.

MDLS OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY W/ THE
HANDLING OF THE SW STORM SYS...AND A SYS IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM DIGGING INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS. A MORE SRN TRACK TO THAT
STM AS IT HEADED INTO THE ERN STATES WAS THE CASE WED/THU (THUS A
MUCH HIGHER PTNTL FOR COLDER/WINTRY P-TYPE)...BUT NOW THERE IS
MORE OF A TRANSFER/COMBO OF NRN/SRN STREAM SYSTEMS INVOF NATION`S
MIDSECTION SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE NRN TRACK
TO THE ENTIRE STM...W/ PRIMARY SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING INVOF MO
INSTEAD OF TO THE S CLOSER TO THE GULF CST. THE PATTERN INVOF
MDATLC IN NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD WINTER P-TYPE EVENT LT IN
THE WKND INTO MON W/ SFC HI PRES TO DRIFT TO OFF THE SE CONUS CST
(BY SUN AFTN)...COMBINED W/ LACK OF ANY NRN SFC HI PRES AND A MORE
NRN W-E TRACK TO THE SFC LO PRES.

THE AIR OVR THE FA (ESP NNW PORTION) ON SUN MAY BE DRY/COLD ENOUGH
FOR RA/IP MIXTURE AT ONSET OF PCPN. TREND OF MDLS PAST 24 HRS HAS
BEEN TO BRING PCPN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE FA FM THE W THROUGH
THE DAY SUN. XPCG MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVR THE FA AS S WNDS
DEVELOP. ALL MDLS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) AGREE W/ THE MORE NRN TRACK
(W-E) THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES LT SUN INTO MON. THUS...RA WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FCST P-TYPE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT
EARLY SUN EVE (IN THE M/U30S N...L/M40S S)...THEN RISE A FEW DEGS
F THEREAFTER INTO MON MRNG.

BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON...DRYING TREND TO BEGINNING BUT SUSPECT A BIT
OF A DELAY IN LO LVL CAA (OR ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CATCH THE PCPN
BEFORE IT EXITS) TO CAUSE ANY SGFNT SN THREAT (ON MON). WILL HAVE
A MIX RA/SN SHWRS FOR MNLY NNE PORTIONS (AFT MON MRNG)...MNLY CHC
SHWRS ELSW. HI TEMPS FM THE L40S NNW TO THE L/M50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME SOME LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OVR CSTL WTRS ERLY MON
EVE...EXPECT CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS
FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO L20S SOUTH
XCPT M20S SERN BEACH AREAS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY
AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE 30S. MSTLY CLR TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH MID WEEK SYSTM AND OFFER
UP DIFFERENT TIMING AND MOISTURE SCENARIOS...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FCST CONTINUES UNTIL SOME KIND OF CONSISTANCE IN SEEN. HOWEVER...
THE TREND IS SLOWER IN BRINGING MSTR NORTH INTO THE FA AS SRN
STREAM LOW DVLPS IN THE NRN GOM THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE SE AND
PSBLY MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE PULLING NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MODEL GUID SUGGESTS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. XPCT INCRG
CLDNS WED. WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS 45-50. CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED NITE WITH MIXED SNOW/RAIN LATE
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS. LOWS ARND FREEZING NRN MOST CNTYS TO THE
M-U30S OVR THE SOUTH. RAIN CHCS CONT THU XCPT FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
ERLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NR 50 SE.

IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFYS...THE STRNG HIGH PRS KEEPS SRN STREAM LOW
SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FA. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THIS WINTER GIVEN NO REAL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN. ITS SOLN WOULD
BE COLDER AND DRIER.

ANTHR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND
THIS SYSTM BY FRIDAY. DCRG CLDNS THU NITE. LOWS IN THE 20S. MSTLY
SUNNY FRI. HIGHS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NW WIND HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO AROUND 30 KT FROM 20Z-23Z. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR KSBY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTING TO 18-23 KT
(30-35KT AT KSBY). DRY...LESS WINDY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SAT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN INTO
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT KRIC/KSBY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GALES MOST PLACES TONIGHT AND
INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS. STRNGST CAA TO OVRSPRD
THE MARINE AREA NXT SVRL HRS. STRONGEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
OVER NRN COASTAL WATERS...35-40 KT IN THE BAY AND SRN COASTAL
WATERS...AND ~35 KT IN MOST OF THE RIVERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING.
THIS IS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST AND WHEN
MUCH COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW -12C) REALLY SURGE OVER
THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE WATERS (+5 TO +8 C). SEAS & WAVES RESPOND
TO THESE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-11 FT WITH WAVES IN CHES BAY 4-6
FT.

FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY CONTS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNIND ACROSS CSTL
WTRS NRTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND GIVEN THE FCSTD TEMPS/WIND GUSTS AND
CURRENT WATER TEMPS. THIS IS WHERE SOME MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY.
KEPT LIGHT ICING MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH & IN THE CHES BAY ATTM.

XPCT SCA`S TO REPLACE GALES SAT MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY FALLING
BLO SCA LVLS SAT EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

NEXT LOW CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HAVE WINDS IN SCA RANGE WITH
GUSTS CAPPED AT 30 KTS ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ635-636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-637.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652-654.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/BMD
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...MPR









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