Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS BROAD 1020+ MB HI PRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE PIEDMONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE W/SW. TO THE EAST, AN AREA OF WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST. ALOFT, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS PUSHED BACK WEST TO A POSITION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AS A PAIR
OF WEAK UPPER LOWS SET UP ON THE NNW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...ONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

ISO SHRAS/TSTMS FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS HAVE COLLAPSED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. NOTING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE W-NW, AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS LATE OVER THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH A DRY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS PSBL, MAINLY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED SO HV GONE WITH ONLY PATCHY
WORDING IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOOK FOR
EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SFC HI PRES
CENTERED W OF THE AREA WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROFS OF LO PRES CLOSE
TO THE MID ATLC CST. FOR WED...A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF APPROACHING FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE-CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER WRN
AREAS. MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN.
SIMILAR POPS INTO THUR WITH A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE REGION AND
LITTLE UPR-LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS
WED AND THUR...WITH SOME MID 90S PSBL. OVRNGT LO TEMPS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. STRONGER HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE STATES FRI
ALLOWING FOR NE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN WED AND THUR...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR
80S TO NR 90. STILL A CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
INITIALLY...20-30% POP FOR A SHOWER AND MAYBE A TSTM FRI NGT THRU
SAT AFTN...AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA...AS HI PRES
BLDS FM ERN CANADA SWRD TO ALNG THE NEW ENGLAND CST. THEN...WILL
HAVE DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU TUE...AS THE CNTR OF HI PRES BLDS DOWN
OVR THE MID ATLC REGION AND JUST OFFSHR. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 SAT
AND SUN...GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S MON...AND IN THE MID TO UPR 80S
TUE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S SAT MORNG...IN THE 60S
SUN AND MON MORNGS...AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FCST PRBLM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG DVLPMNT BEFORE SR GIVEN
THE CALM WNDS AND NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. ECG ALREADY DOWN TO
1/2SM OR LESS WITH SBY BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH IN THE MVFR RANGE.
LTST DATA CONTS TOWARD FOG RTHR THAN STRATUS SO HAVE LEANED THAT
WAY WITH THE 06Z FCSTS. XPCT THAT ECG WILL STAY LIFR GIVEN THE
ASOS LOCATION TO THE WATER. SBY WILL PRBLY CONT TO BOUNCE UP AND
DOWN GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT RAINED THERE YSTRDY. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP AT RIC/PHF CLOSER TO SR BUT KEPT FOG OUT OF ORF ATTM.

THE FOG BURNS OFF BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z WITH VFR CNDTNS. XPCT
ANTHR DAY OF SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT SO ADDED ANTHR LINE TO THE CSTL
TAFS SITES FOR THIS AFTR 16Z. NEXT CONCERN IS FOR ISLTD CONVECTION
DVLPNG ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY MUCH LIKE YSTRDY ALONG WITH SCT
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS OVR THE MTS THEN DRIFTS EASTWRD DRNG THE
LATE AFTRN/ERLY EVE. KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION PSBL THU/FRI. ALSO LOOK FOR SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT
SOME OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU THU. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS
THRU THU...WITH WEAK TROF OF LO PRES JUST W OF THE WTRS TNGT THRU
WED...THEN WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W ON THU. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2 FT. STRONGER NE OR E WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES/SEAS THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS STRONGER HI PRES BLDS DOWN ALNG
THE NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC CST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...TMG



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