Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
116 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR DEPICTS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL NC AND OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PRECIP FREE. SINGLE LIGHT SHOWER REACHED INTO SRN BRUNSWICK COUNTY
BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY
CLEARED WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT REMAINING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING THE REGION PRECIP FREE AND GENERALLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL RATHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
THU INTO FRI. WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH SSE
LO LEVEL FLO ACRS THE AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT STILL SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS. UNDER
A PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPR
80S.

DURING FRI...BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH
DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN
ADDITION...AN EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
LO LEVEL MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL
CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (40-50%). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND
PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
THU...IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM
THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10KT OUT OF THE SSE. A
COASTAL/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY
FRIDAY...AND SHIFT TO SE BY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AOB 15KT.
THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WIND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING AOB 15KT. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3FT...WITH
1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJZ





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