Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240645
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1241 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

Temperatures once again cooling well below forecast mins across
portions of northwest and central ND, so these were adjusted.
Tricky temperature forecast with low clouds east and advancing mid
to upper clouds west. Area web cams still show dense fog at times,
though most reporting stations not as much. Still, high res
guidance still show fog expanding with adv criteria visibilities
developing early this morning so will maintain dense fog headlines
as is with this update.


UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Per NDDOT webcam trends and GOES East Advanced Nighttime
Microphysics RGB and Fog Channel Difference imagery through 0312
UTC, issued a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of central and
northwest North Dakota through 12 UTC. The 02 UTC RAP/HRRR/GFSLAMP
suggest the fog may erode prior to 12 UTC across portions of the
Advisory area, and possibly shift further east with southwest
surface flow. Thus, the Advisory may need some adjustments
through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The RAP/HRRR/GFSLAMP/NBM through their 23 UTC iterations continue
to favor fog development across central into northwest North
Dakota on the periphery of the stratus bank. A couple surface
observations are beginning to show restrictions across the
northwest into southern Saskatchewan as of 00 UTC. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be needed at some point this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A well defined band of stratus continues to move through central
North Dakota late Tuesday afternoon. The cloud line will define a
temperature discontinuity tonight as temperatures in the clear
areas fall more rapidly west central this evening. Also the short
term guidance has been consistently showing fog redevelopment
along the cloud boundary from northwest through west central
North Dakota this evening. Will follow this based on guidance
supported by persistence.

At this time will not issue a fog advisory but will mention the
threat for patchy dense fog in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Wednesday will see a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds
central and more sun west. Highs Wednesday will warm into the
upper 30s to near 40 southwest. With the 20s in more cloudy areas
north and east. Still no sign of precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A broad h500 ridge across the northern plains Thursday will
support mild temperatures with highs into the lower 40s southwest
and the 30s north. Friday will see a pacific cold frontal passage
with gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will still mild
with only spotty light precipitation across the region. Highs
through the weekend will still be near or above normal most areas
with Saturday and Sunday in the 20s and 30s. Then another ridge
builds into the region with mild weather into the 30s and lower
40s Monday and 20s and 30s Tuesday. Mainly dry through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Issued at 1241 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

Widespread IFR to VLIFR conditions in fog and stratus central
tonight, with some fog possible northwest. Conditions will improve
from west to east now through 15Z this morning as mid to upper
level clouds increase in coverage and low stratus pushes farther
east and north. VFR conditions are expected west through the
period, central after 12Z, and east after 15Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ early this morning
for NDZ010-011-019>022-035-036-046-047-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH



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