Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A surface high pressure ridge extended across Ontario and northern
Minnesota into northeastern and central North Dakota. Meanwhile a
large storm system was over eastern Kansas, and another low was over
southern Alberta with a trough extending south along the Front Range
of Montana and Wyoming. Mainly sunny skies were over North Dakota
between the two low pressure systems. Weak winds were over northern
and central ND in the vicinity of the high pressure ridge axis,
while a northeasterly wind flow over southeastern ND had set up in
response to the large southern Plains storm, and a southerly wind
flow had set up over western ND in response to the western trough.

Expect mainly sunny skies and dry conditions over western and
central ND, with warmer conditions for the west half of the state
with highs in the 60s...with slightly cooler conditions in the
southeast (including the James Valley) where expected highs range
from the upper 50s to around 60.

Minor adjustments in hourly sensible weather fields. Otherwise
current forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 901 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Surface high pressure ridge extends northeast to southwest across
the forecast area. This is expected to keep us mostly sunny and
dry today. Precipitation chances will remain to our southeast and
slowly track across Montana into the western portion of the
forecast area by later this evening.

No changes to the going forecast other than updated latest
sensible weather elements.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Forecast tracking with reality.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Another dry and mild day is forecast for today under the
subsidence of high pressure. The area begins to come under the
influence of the central plains to Great Lakes storm late today in
the form of increasing northeast wind across Lamoure and Dickey
counties. That same area, actually from Lamoure city to Ellendale
and east, is clipped by low pops as the storm skirts by to the
east on Monday. The latest model trends are to continue taking
the back edge of the rain farther and farther east, and delaying
the onset. Pops over those two southeast counties were dropped for
Sunday night and maintained for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

As the eastern storms exits Monday a short wave and surface trough
push in to the west from Montana. Guidance has been very
consistent with the intensity and timing of the system and
resulting sensible weather. This means a cooler day Monday with
temperatures back into the 50s with a lot of cloud cover and
scattered rain showers west half. Enough instability is present
for a few garden variety thunderstorms.

The eastern low becomes vertically stacked and so stalls, backing
up the pattern over North Dakota and keeping general low pressure
in place. The chance for showers then continues into mid week.

The end of next week offers a strongly building H5 ridge and
thermal ridging through H7. This means seasonably warm weather
with highs in the 70s. A target of opportunity was identified by
WFO BYZ and agreed on by GGW, BIS and UNR. This came in the form
of raising forecast high temperatures for Saturday by 5 to 10
degrees over model blend solutions.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

VFR cigs/vsbys this taf period. Expect an increase in low to mid
level clouds (5kft-10kft) from west to east tonight. Areas of MVFR
cigs and scattered showers move into the west after 12 UTC Monday.
Added a scattered mvfr and VCSH at KISN at 16 UTC Monday.




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