Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231737
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Winds across the west and central are picking up with gusts
currently in the 35 to 40 mph range. Expect some higher gusts
through the afternoon. Made some minor adjustments to sky cover,
otherwise current forecast looks in line.

UPDATE Issued at 936 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Could see a sprinkle or two, but showers have all but ended over
central ND this morning. Made some minor adjustments to sky cover
and pops. Winds are in a bit of a lull now until we begin to mix
out late morning and through the afternoon. No changes to current
wind advisory.

UPDATE
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Adjusted sky cover to better reflect latest satellite imagery and
trends. Otherwise all forecast elements are on track for this
product issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Strong northwest winds are the main concern across western and
central North Dakota today.

Currently, a surface low was centered near the border of
Manitoba/North Dakota/Minnesota, with the cold front extending south
along the Red River Valley. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph were
common across western and central ND. There have been gusts of 40 to
around 58 mph reported at times in conjunction with outflow from
scattered to isolated showers moving southeast across our area. This
surface low was associated with an upper level shortwave trough
moving east across the Northern Plains.

Regarding rain showers, high res models suggest one more area
of showers (currently over southern Manitoba) should move southeast
across north central and eastern North Dakota through this morning.

Today the shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeast towards
Missouri, as the cold front moves east towards the Great Lakes. H850
winds of up to 50 knots are forecast, with good cold advection
pushing south into the state from Canada. 3-hr pressure rises of 3-4
mb had already entered western and central ND, and were forecast to
increase to 4-5.5 mb during the morning hours. The pressure rises
decrease this afternoon, but increase again tonight as a secondary
push of cold air moves south across mainly the eastern Dakotas and
western Great Lakes area. Thus we expect northwest winds to be on
the increase this morning, reaching wind advisory criteria
(sustained winds of 30 mph and/or gusts to 40 mph) for much of the
morning hours.

For this afternoon, bufkit soundings indicate an adiabatic lapse
rate this afternoon up to H700-H800 mb over all of western and
central ND, tapping into those mid-level winds of 40-50 knots. Thus
the wind advisory in effect for all of western and central ND
through 6 pm mdt/7 pm cdt is reasonable and valid. It is possible
that wind gusts may reach high wind warning criteria (sustained 40
mph winds and/or gusts to 58 mph) at times, especially in and near
outflow from rain showers or at some higher elevation terrain.
However, most of our area should be solidly within wind advisory
criteria.

Cooler today with highs ranging from the upper 40s in the Turtle
Mountains to the mid 50s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A brief recovery with mild conditions Wednesday before a very strong
clipper system brings very windy conditions, colder air, and chances
of rain and snow on Thursday.

Upper level ridging builds into our area from the west as the
exiting upper level low deepens over the eastern US
Tuesday/Wednesday. By Wednesday we should see temperatures in the
60s again across most of western and central ND.

A fast-moving shortwave clipper dives southeast out of Alberta
Wednesday afternoon, reaching northwestern ND Wednesday evening,
moving southeast across the Dakotas through Thursday. 3-hour
pressure rises of 8-11 mb are forecast to enter western ND Wednesday
evening. The GFS is faster with the pressure rise bubble, already
moving into western ND by early evening, while the NAM is about 3
hours slower in the advance of the pressure bubble. A wind advisory
is looking more certain for the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe.
In addition, much colder air is progged to surge into ND with this
strong cold front. H850 temperatures of -6C to -10C are forecast to
move into ND on Thursday. This system will also bring scattered
showers with it, in the form of rain and snow. At this time it
appears that light snow accumulations of an inch or less are
possible in the Turtle Mountains and surrounding areas Wednesday
night through Thursday. After a mild day Wednesday, we will see
highs on Thursday only in the mid 30s to mid 40s, with lows Thursday
night in the teens and 20s.

The clipper reaches the Mississippi Valley and merges with a
developing longwave trough system over eastern North America, which
keeps northerly upper level flow over ND Friday and Saturday. Friday
will be quite cool with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with only
a moderate recovery for early next week. Northwesterly flow remains
over our area with more shortwaves moving through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Main highlight will be gusty northwest winds 25kt to 38kt and low
level windshear through 12z Tuesday. Vfr cigs/vsbys this Taf period

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS


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