Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS OF 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






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