Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251126 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Skies have remained mostly clear across the valley
overnight, except for some tempo bkn at KMFE. Moisture is moving
northward, and will bring an increase in daytime CU field today,
but cigs will remain above 3000 feet. Chance for showers is
possible around noon for KBRO and KHRL, with a few afternoon
showers possible at KMFE. Chances still to low to add to TAFs.
Southeast winds will reach around 15 knots this afternoon, with a
few gusts at 20 knots. Lighter winds and clear skies will return
overnight tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Moisture surge continues
into south Texas as low level jet pulls moisture in from the
southern Gulf. PW imagery from GOES16 shows readings have reached
1.9 inches this morning, and deeper moisture lingers just to the
south. Atmosphere is still capped, but moisture is now reaching up
to around 15000 feet. Aloft, weak troughing caught between
dominant ridges to the east and west is centered on Texas, and
will drift west today. Once the seabreeze gets moving inland late
this morning, it should be able to fire some scattered shower and
thunderstorms along the coast, getting pushed northwestward by low
level steering flow. Have nudged PoP chances upwards today,
focusing best chances on where the seabreeze should be during peak
heating. Increased moisture will bring increased CU field for the
remainder of the region this afternoon, but this will not temper
highs today, which still reach 100 for most of the area. Wednesday
will be similar to today, except the midlevel trough will be off
to the west, with the eastern ridge trying to push back toward the
region. With the lack of upper support, seabreeze showers will be
a bit more isolated during the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500mb subtropical
ridge across the southwest and south-central United States
and a 500mb inverted trough across northeast Mexico Wednesday
night will provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the CWA Thursday. The upper level ridge across
the southwest U.S. is progged to build across south Texas Thursday
into Friday as a 500mb trough across the northeast U.S. deepens
across the east coast of the United States. Not much in the way of
rain chances is expected Friday and Saturday. Moisture is expected
to increase across portions of south TX Sunday into Monday as the
500mb trough across the eastern U.S. brings a weak cold front
across the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This will provide
at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
rest of the weekend into early next week.

MARINE (Now through wednesday): Winds remain right around 15 knots
across the Gulf waters this morning, and should start to relax
slightly after sunrise. Laguna winds will increase today, peaking
around 15 knots this afternoon. Caution will again be advised on the
Laguna Madre. Seas offshore are running 4 to 5 feet, and will stay
near this level through the next 36 hours. A few showers are
possible through midmorning, and again overnight tonight as moisture
draws northward from the southern Gulf.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Surface high pressure across
the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday will provide light to moderate
southeast winds across the coastal waters Wed night. The pressure
gradient will remain weak across the lower Texas coast Thursday
through Saturday. Light to moderate southeast to south winds
should prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday through




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