Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 260101 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
801 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...The 00z BRO sounding shows fairly dry and stable
conditions throughouth most of the atms layer. Some narrow
saturated layers are located around the 800 mb level and way up
above the 500 mb level. The latest NAM forecast soundings shows
this general dry trend in the atms continuing on through tonight
into tomorrow morning. The forecast soundings then indicate that
the lower levels of the atms will start to moisten up a bit
tomorrow afternoon possibly lowering the ceilings down a bit. This
could increase the potential for some MVFR ceilings late in the
forecast period. But for now will maintain VFR conditions
throughout the upcoming 24 hours for all of the RGV airports.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): H5 ridge continues to
nudge westward into western Mexico, with a weakness in the ridge
nudging into the region. There is still a good capping inversion set
up, but during the past 24 hours lifted to around 8000 feet. This
has allowed a few streamer showers from the Gulf to drift inland
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The same setup is
forecast for tomorrow, with a streamer showers developing across the
Gulf overnight tonight and drifting inland late in the morning.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across northern
Mexico and southwest United States Thursday will shift eastward
across west Texas Friday before a 500mb inverted trough/low moves
into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This will bring moisture across
the western Gulf towards the CWA through the rest of the week into
the weekend. Still some uncertainty with the strength of the
500mb ridge across south TX through the weekend but will go ahead
and increase rain chances slightly Friday and mention chance of
rain Saturday and Sunday as moisture continues to increase at
least across northeast Mexico and into the Rio Grande valley. In
addition...lapse rates aloft should steepen through the weekend to
warrant a mention of thunderstorms in addition to showers. At the
very least...a weakness in the ridge should persist across deep
south TX through the rest of the forecast period and this warrant
at least a slight chance showers and thunderstorms through early
next week.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday night): The surface ridge
remains in place across Southeast Texas during the next 36 hours,
providing generally east flow across the lower Texas Gulf waters.
This continues to prompt wave heights to remain around 3 feet
across the gulf waters, with a light chop on the Laguna. Little
chance is forecast for the next 36 hours, with modest onshore flow
and seas 2 to 3 feet throughout. Isolated showers are expected
tonight and tomorrow night due to ample low level moisture and

Thursday through Sunday...Light northeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Thursday with broad low pressure across
the Bay of Campeche and high pressure across southeast United
States. The pressure gradient is expected to remain weak across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday and light easterly winds should
prevail across the lower Texas coast through the rest of week into
the weekend. Seas will build offshore the lower Texas coast
through the rest of the week into the weekend as swells continue
to build across the northern Gulf and move towards the lower TX
coast with the persistent fetch of easterly winds across the
northern Gulf. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for
the offshore waters Saturday and Sunday mainly for high seas.




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